INSURGENCY: 1985 IN REVIEW

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06626134
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: March 9, 2023
• Document Release Date: January 23, 2020
• Case Number: F-2016-02132
• Publication Date: April 1, 1986

Approved for Release: 2020/01/21 C06626134
Directorate of
Intelligence
Insurgency:
1985 in Review
An Intelligence Assessment
Thtircet
GI 86-10025
April 1986
Copy 395,
Approved for Release: 2020/01/21 C06626134
Approved for Release: 2020/01/21 C06626134 �
Thrent..,
Briefs
The following briefs summarize the status of 13 additional insurgencies The
judgments are based on our review of exten ive evidence
i
over the past year.
Colombia
Guatemala
Ecuador
A marked upsurge in terrorist actions over the last several months probably
foreshadows an eventual collapse of the country's current pseudopeace with the
insurgents, perhaps when President Belisario Betancur's term expires in August
1986. Moreover, we believe a renewed outbreak of insurgency would quickly reach
levels comparable to those that existed before Betancur took office in 1982.
Although in 1984 Betancur obtained cease-fire agreements with FARC, M-19,
and EPL insurgents�ELN guerrillas refused to participate�only the truce with
the FARC still remains in effect. Furthermore, largely because his policies have
not significantly reduced levels of domestic violence, popular support for Betan-
cur's approach has steadily eroded.
The fortunes of Guatemala's four leftist insurgent groups�the EGP, FAR,
ORPA, and PGT/O�are in decline. Available evidence indicates that ideological
and personal differences among guerrilla leaders and a successful counterinsur-
gency campaign are limiting the insurgency's effectiveness and frustrating
Havana's and Managua's efforts to unite Guatemala's rebel groups. In addition,
although the insurgents maintain their ability to conduct low-risk, high-profile acts
of urban terrorism, government-sponsored civilian defense programs and various
civic action initiatives have helped to reduce insurgent ranks to no more than 1,500
full-time combatants. We do not expect the insurgency's negative trend to change
during the next 12 months.
Ecuador, long one of the few Andean nations not affected by terrorist violence,
now faces a growing insurgent challenge. The most prominent radical group�
Alfaro Vive, Carajo! (AVC)�first appeared in 1983 and now numbers some
several hundred armed members and sympathizers. There are also indications that
this "anti-imperialist" and anti-US group is the beneficiary of increasing amounts
of arms, money, and training from foreign governments and insurgent organiza-
tions. Although the AVC does not currently possess the numbers or resources to
threaten the government, we believe its terrorist capability makes it a serious
concern. In addition, the combative political style of Ecuador's fiscally conserva-
tive, pro-US President�Leon Febres-Cordero�has alienated many Ecuadoreans
and is giving the radicals new opportunities to attract support.
45 ThtteseL,
Approved for Release: 2020/01/21 C06626134