CUBA TRENDS VOLUME II, ISSUE 8

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06554265
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: July 13, 2023
• Document Release Date: August 29, 2022
• Case Number: F-2020-00933
• Publication Date: August 1, 1991

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Volume II, Issue 8
MONTHLY PERSPECTIVE:
The Ibero-American Summit in Guadalajara, Mexico, in July, and the Pan American Games in
Cuba this month, have given Fidel Castro new opportunities to demonstrate his desire and ability
to be a responsible member of the Latin American community. Although he was pressed at the
summit to implement domestic political and economic reforms, Castro made some progress
toward his goal of "regional integration." As host of the Pan American Games, he apparently
hopes to renew national pride and gain international prestige, but the Games also pose potential
risks for him. Popular resentment about the added economic burden imposed by the Games may
lead to small, spontaneous protests; human rights activists may take advantage of the
international media coverage to express their opposition to the government. Even if the Games
go without incident, Castro's non-reformist policies�resulting in further economic deterioration
and growing popular discontent�probably will continue to be a major obstacle to his goal of
close economic and political cooperation with his Latin American brothers.
In the early sessions of the Guadalajara summit on 18-19 July,
Castro came under fire from some of his 22 colleagues from Spain, Portugal, and
Latin America. Portuguese Prime Minister Soares called Castro a "dinosaur," and Spanish
Prime Minister Gonzalez noted that the end of communism meant there were no longer "two
alternatives to development." Without mentioning Cuba by name, several regional leaders
indicated Castro should hold free, democratic elections. Salvadoran President Cristiani publicly
accused Castro of promoting the guerrilla war in El Salvador. In private meetings, Castro was
also importuned to implement reforms in Cuba. In a two-hour tete-a-tete with Prime Minister
Gonzalez, for example, Castro was urged to open Cuba's political and economic systems to
avoid a "national catastrophe," according to press reports.
The Cuba Trends is prepared by the Central Intelligence Agency's
American Analysis
Comments and queries are welcome and may be directed to
Office of African and Latin
Information as of 31 July 1991 was used in this issue.
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Castro's statement at the opening ceremony underscored differences between himself and the
other heads of state, particularly regarding US influence in Latin America. He called US
regional development programs like the Enterprise Initiative for the Americas�which have
been attracting growing hemispheric support�"illusions" and "fantasies." He criticized his
colleagues for not forging greater regional unity to confront the "world political hegemony" of
the United States. Such themes, in our judgment, enjoyed little resonance among summit
participants.
Some Diplomatic Gains
Despite his apparent isolation, Castro made efforts�apparently with some success�to gain
acceptance as a responsible regional player:
� He made progress toward his longstanding goal of normal diplomatic relations with
all the countries of South America. Chile and Colombia announced the
establishment of consular relations and pledged to strengthen trade ties with Cuba.
The Paraguayan foreign minister announced Asuncion also would establish consular
relations with Havana, but he was later overruled by President Rodriguez
Castro projected a more
moderate image than in the past. During his session with Spanish Prime Minister
Gonzalez, for example, Castro suggested that he would consider internal reforms as
long as he did not appear to be bowing to US pressure.
In signing the summit declaration, Castro for the first time in 32 years publicly
agreed with his regional counterparts on an array of economic, political and
diplomatic issues.
Castro made his most explicit public pledge yet to facilitate an end to the conflict in
El Salvador. The summit declaration includes a commitment to "refrain from taking
any kind of action or measure that could obstruct a prompt solution of [regional]
conflicts." Castro also told a Salvadoran newspaper that he supported the
negotiations.
Castro won more sympathy for his argument that US pressure on Cuba is
counterproductive. After meeting with Castro, Gonzalez and Venezuelan President
Perez explicitly criticized US policy toward Cuba.
We believe the Guadalajara summit may also have had some short-lived domestic benefit for
Castro. the Cuban media portrayed Castro as
the most popular leader at the summit and claimed that the reference to "ideological pluralism"
in the summit declaration proved that Latin American governments respect Cuba's socialist
course. In the past, such propaganda usually has not boosted Castro's popular support, but it has
helped strengthen the regime's image of survivability. Moreover, by travelling abroad with
many of his closest advisers, Castro demonstrated that his grip on power remains firm.
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The Pan Am Games: Time for Pride...
The Pan American Games, 2-18 August, provide Castro another opportunity to portray Cuba as
ready for regional reintegration. More than 5,000 athletes from 39 countries, some 10,000
foreign spectators, and scores of journalists will be in Havana and Santiago for the Games�the
biggest international event Cuba has ever hosted.
Castro is probably hoping that the Games will demonstrate to Latin America that Cuba remains
strong despite its problems. In his recent speeches, Castro has pointed out that the government
has built 20 new facilities and renovated dozens of others for the Games despite major
disruptions in imports. The comandante also probably calculates the event will provide a surge
of nationalism that will divert Cubans' attention from the island's economic difficulties. The
Cuban people enjoy sports�a tradition the regime has strongly encouraged�and probably are
proud to host the event. Cuban athletes have performed well in past games, and Castro almost
certainly is counting on Cuban victories to show his people that the country remains a
hemispheric power.
... And a Time for Protest?
Nevertheless, some Cubans resent the government's diversion of scarce resources to the Games,
Under the austerity of the "special period in peacetime,"
Castro has suspended most construction not associated with the Games, including much-needed
housing projects. Supplies of almost all daily necessities, including food and medicine, have
dwindled steadily in the past year.
longshoremen�angry about food shortages�balked at unloading a recent shipment of chickens
earmarked for the Games. Construction workers expecting to receive apartments they had
volunteered to build for the event were upset by rumors that the government will keep some
units for the tourism industry,
In our judgment, the additional strains on Cuban food supplies, transportation, and other services
during the Games may fuel further resentment and could lead to small, spontaneous popular
protests. Cubans waiting in food lines, for example, could get in a scuffle with marketplace
managers. Although the government has repeatedly proven adept at controlling such incidents,
the diversion of security forces to the Game sites and tourist areas may slow the government's
response. As in the past, disaffected Cubans may try to display an antiregime banner or shout
slogans at a sporting event. In addition, Cuban human rights activists may take advantage of the
large international media presence to express their opposition to the government.
Internal security units are aware of the possibility of unrest and are taking precautions to ensure
order Havana traditionally has relied heavily on plainclothes
policemen and, according to foreign press reports, has formed civilian "rapid action
detachments" to quell protests non-violently. As a preemptive measure, security officials
already have jailed some activists and "troublemakers" and warned others to avoid political acts
during the Games Security has also been
tightened around foreign missions in Havana to prevent Cubans from seeking asylum_________
As an added precaution, authorities reportedly plan to search all
spectators entering the sports venues.
Even if no antiregime incidents take place, the psychological boost that successful games may
give the Cuban people�as well as any improvement in Cuba's international image�will likely
be short-lived. We believe economic conditions and living standards will continue to decline
after the Games, particularly if Havana has squandered scarce hard currency and food reserves
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on the event. In our judgment, Cuba's deteriorating economy and the prospect of increased
popular discontent will undercut Castro's recent diplomatic initiatives. Latin American leaders
appear unlikely to move toward much closer trade and political relations if Castro does not end
his non-reformist stance and take concrete steps to avoid further suffering in Cuba.
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS
Oil Shortage Helps Environment
The bad news about Cuba's oil imports has meant good news for the environment. Oil imports
dropped 25 percent last year, and an additional 20-percent
decline is likely in 1991. A recent report by the Cuban Institute for Transportation Studies
shows an improvement in early 1991 in the quality of the water in Havana harbor�one of the
most polluted bodies of water in the world. The study reportedly found a 50-percent reduction
in the level of hydrocarbons in the water. The drop probably can be attributed to the decline in
oil shipments to the Havana refinery and possibly to precautions taken to prevent losses while
off-loading.
Cuba to Refine Iranian Crude
Iran and Cuba recently signed an agreement under which Cuba would refine
crude oil at the new refinery in Cienfuegos.
Cuban sugar worth $50 million earlier this yeail
could agree to barter some of the oil for sugar.
\ Iran was interested in purchasing
DOMESTIC POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
and possibly
Last "Plantado" Freed
On 16 July, Havana released Mario Chanes de Armas after he completed a 30-year sentence for
allegedly plotting to assassinate Fidel Castro. Chanes de Armas was the last of the
plantados�political prisoners who refused to submit to prison discipline such as wearing
uniforms. He fought with Castro during the attack on the Moncada Barracks in 1953, sailed
with him back to Cuba on the Granma in 1956, and fought in the Sierra Maestra.
If Chanes de Armas decides to stay in Cuba, his future role in Cuba's fragmented human rights
movement is unclear. His vehement opposition to dialogue with the Castro regime puts him at
odds with other leading activists like Gustavo Arcos
During an interview with Spanish journalists, he called for the international community to press
Castro to introduce a multiparty system and hold free elections. Chanes de Armas claimed he
was not cowed by threats from state security officials not to engage in antiregime activities.
Congress Preparations Moving Slowly
Preparations for the Communist Party Fourth Congress�scheduled to begin 10 October�are
advancing slowly, apparently because priority attention is being given to the Pan American
Games. According to Cuban press reports, the party has formed committees to plan a conclave
reflecting the "austerity and modesty" of current hard times. Party cells around the country have
begun nominating the 1,800 delegates to the Congress and "pre-candidates" for the 225 seats on
the Central Committee.
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Official Cuban media have played up the "democratic" nature of the process�this is the first
time that local party members have cast secret ballots for nominees�but the debate is obviously
muted when compared to public discussions after the Congress was first announced last year1-1
party nuclei have stayed well within permissible (b)(1)
parameters, rather than criticizing party organizations and urging limited economic adjustments (b)(3)
as they did last year. (b)(3)
Officials ranging from neighborhood party bosses to Fidel Castro have been cautioning the
public not to have "false hopes of spectacular changes" during the Congress. In his address on
26 July and practically every other recent speech, Castro has proclaimed that Cuba will not give
up its socialist economy and one-party system. "We have made more changes than anyone else
for 30 years," he stated on 26 July, "and there will be no [more] change."
After the Pan American Games, the party almost certainly will launch a propaganda campaign to
build popular interest in the Congress. the National
Assembly in July voted to postpone this year's elections to allow time for what Assembly
President Escalona called "entirely new legislation" on how the local and national assemblies
operate�an essentially meaningless step in Cuba's one-party system. In our judgment, the
Party Congress will have to go beyond such palliatives to achieve the revitalization it seeks and
to overcome the deep popular cynicism caused by its three decades of inept management.
Cracking Down on Illegal Emigration
Havana is taking steps to reduce the number of Cubans leaving illegally by boat or raft. Since
early June, the Cuban Border Guard has expanded coastal surveillance and more aggressively
pursued unauthorized vessels�resulting in the arrest of up to 150 people between mid-June and
mid-July, few of the detainees are
imprisoned and Most are only fined, in contrast to past government practice. US
immigration figures indicate that arrivals declined by approximately 50 percent from May to
July, apparently because of the Cuban crackdown. The total number for the first seven months
of this year is 1,407.
Aware that massive emigration presaged the fall of the East European regimes, Havana appears
concerned that an exodus would damage Cuba's international image, particularly during the Pan
American Games. Fuel shortages, however, may eventually force Castro to reduce antirafter
operations. In addition, illegal flight customarily reaches its peak in August and
September�suggesting it will be even harder to stanch the flow.
FOREIGN POLICY DEVELOPMENTS
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Cuba Keeping Honduran Left at Arm's Length
Since the late 1980s, Havana has provided only limited assistance to the Honduran left, focusing
instead on improving trade and diplomatic ties with Tegucigalpa. Havana's efforts so far have
yielded few gains; the Hondurans have remained skeptical of Cuban intentions, although the
pace of official visits between the two countries has markedly increased in the last three years.
Promoting Responsible Image on Nuclear Safety
Apparently to allay international concerns about the safety of its
nuclear energy program, Havana has decided to allow an international inspection of the
Cienfuegos reactor construction site and has become more active in the International Atomic
Energy Agency (IAEA). In late July, the Cubans invited IAEA safety experts to make a
technical review in 1992 of Cuba's construction methods and operating plans
MILITARY DEVELOPMENTS
Near-Incident over Rafters?
Cuban MiG-23s patrolling waters north of the island on 21 July spotted a US-registered Cessna
aircraft searching for Cuban rafters south of the 24th parallel. The Cessna, operated by the
Cuban-American "Brotherhood" organization, reported the MiGs to the US Coast Guard, and
Havana informed the Miami air traffic control center that the Cessna's safety "cannot be
guaranteed." Two US F-16 aircraft were scrambled in response to the MiG-23s but returned to
base after determining that the Cessna had moved north of the 24th parallel and that the MiGs
had returned home. We believe continued "Brotherhood" missions near Cuban airspace will
increase the likelihood of future incidents.
Maintaining Some Ties with the Nicaraguan Military
Cuba is continuing to provide limited assistance to the Nicaraguan military.
received technical assistance from
Cuba to repair five AN-26 CURL transport aircraft in early July. The Commander of the
Nicaraguan Air Force initially requested Soviet help but was told he would have to pay in hard
currency.
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INDICATORS OF INSTABILITY
Security in the Havana area has increased in recent weeks as part of preparations for the Pan
American Games. security has been tightened around
diplomatic missions and that state security has stepped up harassment of human rights activists
to discourage protests or other embarrassing incidents.
ECONOMY
ELECTIONS
FOREIGN TRAVEL
DOMESTIC TRAVEL
MEDIA
POLITICAL PARTIES
RELIGION
UNION ACTIVITY
REGIME POLICIES
COMMUNIST/RESTRICT DEMOCRATIC/OPEN
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STRONG
REGIME ASSETS
WEAK
LEGEND
CASTRO LEGITIMACY
High public demand
for reform
ELITE COHESION
�
1
MILITARY LOYALTY
Moderate public demand
gall
for reform
POLICE/CONTROL
� Policy static
Policy shifting
COMING EVENTS
August 4
August 12
August 13
August 23
Anniversary of Founding of Cuban Navy
People's Victory over Machado Tyranny (1933)/Liberty Day
Birthday of Fidel Castro (1927)
Anniversary of Founding of Cuban Women's Federation (1960)
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VERBATIM
"There are big ideological battles to be fought. It seems that imperialism has no other enemy in
this world, except for tiny Cuba�this green cayman of the Caribbean, as Che Guevara once
said."
Fidel Castro
Moncada Barracks Speech
26 July 1991
"Some have told me: we want change. However, we have made more changes than anyone else
for 30 years. .. Therefore, I have told them that they do not really want change, but to change
what has been changed, and that there will be no change. That is a reality."
Fidel Castro
Moncada Barracks Speech
26 July 1991
HUMOR IN CUBA
A hungry Cuban couple waited three long hours in a bread line under the blazing Havana sun.
With still no prospect of getting any bread, the husband said, "I give up! I'm going to kill
Castro!" He stomped off in the direction of the comandante's office. About an hour later, when
the man came back to the bread line, his wife asked what happened. "I couldn't do it," he said.
"The line there was too long, too!"
BERRY'S WORLD / Jim Berry
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