CLIMATE GEOENGINEERING: A GROWING FOREIGN POLICY AND PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS CHALLENGE, BUT CURRENTLY A LOW TECHNICAL THREAT

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06530720
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 28, 2022
• Document Release Date: May 14, 2018
• Case Number: F-2016-00405
• Publication Date: August 25, 2011

Approved for Release: 2018/01/30 C06530720.
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!Weather Modification: Related Technology
lAt least 24 countries, including China and Russia,
,
'have weather modificatiotfprogranis, according to a
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World Meteorological Survey done in 1999,90' 91 92
and these technologies and expertise could probably
1 be applied to some. geoengineering techniques. If a
country felt weather modification was a practical or
ipublic relations success, this could build Confidence
for investments in geoengineering research.
is During the Cold War, Russia researched weather
modification for both peaceful and hostile uses;, ,
such as inducing tsunamis or flood.
Chinese bloggers accused the government's wenther
modification program of causing or exacerbating
unusually early and heavy snowfall in 2009,
according to press reporting.99 China publicly touts
the program as ensuring good weather for Icey
ational events such as the 2008 'Olympics.109 1�1
� Only a few scientists and economists argue that
geoengineering would be an inexpensive .
complement or alternative to pricier greenhouse gas
mitigation and clean energy measures. 03 104 105 106
107 However, most experts argue that
geoengineering should be considered only in the
event of a "climate emergency," 108 109 and as a
short-term option it cannot replace greenhouse as
reductions in mitigating climate change risks." 111
112 113 114 115
� A small geoengineering-focused Canadian NGO
railed against geoengineering events at the 2009
Copenhagen meeting, saying industrialized
countries cannot be trusted to attempt a climate
"techno-fix" that would have remotely equitable
impacts, and arguing that voluntary scientific self-
regulation is inadequate and preempts a public
discussion about whether geoengineering should be
pursued at al1.116
� The UK National Environmental Research Council
(NERC) held several open forums on
geoengineering in 2010 attended by capacity
audiences who had low initial awareness of the
issue, were broadly opposed to intentional
interference with the climate, but who ultimately
gave cautious support for research and engaged
constructively in discussions about appropriate
governance and regulations, according to the NERC
report
Possible Motivations for Geoengineering
If research progresses to reduce some of the
uncertainties currently endemic to the field, countries
or nonstate actors could be motivated to develop a
program to reverse damaging climate change, or as a
publicity stunt to try to galvanize the international
debate about climate change mitigation. Worsening
climate conditions�including recurring weather
shocks or pending climate tipping points such as the
Asian monsoon�could drive any of the more
.technically advanced nations to accelerate
geoengineering research and development.
� A country that feels under mortal threat from
climate change�such as a small island state�may
grow desperate if it perceives global emissions
reductions are inadequate and might independently
attempt a program or partner with a wealthy nation
or donor in a public relations bid to push the
international community toward more aggressive
climate actions
on geoengineering limits our ability
to assess military interest or involvement in the issue.
While we have some information on Russian interest
in targeted hostile weather modification, open
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information on global-scale geoengineering
techniques suggest it would be difficult to predict
outcomes or direct these measures against any
specific adversary.
� Russian military newspaper articles in 2006 and
2009, including one by a retired general, discussed
the military potential of weather modification and
other geophysical weapons.u9 120 We lack further
insights into the program but assess any efforts are
probably nascent and would almost certainly aim to
develop targeted rather than global-scale weapons.
� The 1976 Convention on the Prohibition of Military
or Any Other Hostile Use of Environmental
Modification prohibits any military or hostile
weather modification that causes widespread, long-
lasting, or severe effects as a means of injury to any
party, and has been signed by 75 nations, including
China, Japan, Russia, and the UK.121 122 The
definition of environmental modification could
encompass some geoengineering techniques,
although the Convention permits environmental
� modification for peaceful purposes
International Governance Under Discussion
Calls for governance of geoengineering are growing
from governments concerned about the issue,
researchers seeking legal guidance for further work,
and activists opposed to geoengineering. Some
experts suggest that modification of existing
environmental protection treaties will be the most
feasible route for international governance initiatives,,
possibly using multiple instruments to cover different
types of geoengineering technologies.123 124 125
� The Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) and
the London Convention/Protocol on Marine
Dumping both hosted contentious debates regarding
regulation of ocean fertilization in meetings in 2008
rand/11,0
he 2008 nonbinding CBD resolution was
widely viewed as a de facto moratorium on ocean
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1RePoiting Sparse; Opportunities Exist To Gain
Insights On-GeOengineering Programs
Reporting on worldwide geoengineering research and
rtirrentlif 1.Illited to open-sonrce and
If geoengineering-
programs go beyond computer modeling to the testing
'stage, technical -collection May detect some signatures
of Climate of atmospheric ,thanges.'Bedause-of the .
'difficulty in distinguishing- geoengineering research
ffrom closely related climate research, collection on
tabuntry',s-plan� and intentions would be Crucial to
,
early detection of undisclosed programs
� National Aeronanties and Spaee,Administration
(NASA) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration (NOAA)-reS6urceS that monitor1
climate signatures and atmospheric conditions may
provide the first indications of testing. Imagery
analysis could identify large, specialized structures'*
deployed on the ground or water for geoengineering
purposes. ,
� Tipoffs for future geoengineering research and
,
procurement 'might include monitoring markets for
chemicals and specialized materials to discern jiirice
movements that indicate large-scale acquisitions
' that could be used in geoengineering pro ects,
� Collection of gas, liquid, or solid 'samples from
space, air orne, or groun - ase sensors could,
, indicate geoengineering testing,
fertilization and oceanographers were concerned
this could effectively restrict scientific research, but
US diplomats assessed 2011 CBD language would
not restrict US research interests:35 '3
� The 2010 Asilomar Conference�attended by 165
experts in the field�concluded that transparency,
public and intergovernmental engagement, and
governmental oversight are essential to responsible
conduct of geoengineering research.' 37 The UK
Royal Society likewise noted in 2009 that there is
no international treaty or institution with a
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