NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06496676
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: March 16, 2022
• Document Release Date: July 22, 2016
• Case Number: F-2015-01415
• Publication Date: February 14, 1987

Approved for Release: 2016/03/23 C06496676
Director of
Central
Intelligence
TarS3 ecr.et
National Intelligence Daily
Saturday
14 February 1987
"t01}-4p,:r
CPAS NID 87-037JX
14 I-ebruary 1987
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USSR-INDIA-
PAKISTAN:
Soviet Position on Border Tensions
There appears to be no foundation for Islamabad's fears that
Moscow encouraged New Delhi to provoke the recent tensions
along the Pakistani border in order to extract concessions on
Afghanistan from Islamabad, but the Soviets have prevailed on
India to provide public relations support for the Afghan regime's
efforts at "national recoActillation."
Islamabad now bredits the Soviets with having worked to avoid war.
Pakistani officials speculated earlier that Moscow had urged New
Delhi to heighten tensions in order to increase pressure on Islamabad
to soften its positiOn on Afghanistan.
_ .�-te
Moscow.
� -
urged restraint on both Inclia_and Pakistan, causing some resentment
among Indians over what-they regarded as Soviet
"evenhandedness." Ttre-Erythassraiso-notes-that Soviet diplomats
in New Delhi were discreetly silent during the crisis.
Coverage of the border tensions by Soviet media was not
inflammatory. An editorial in Pravda on 6 February hinted that
Moscow had played a part in defusing tensions.
Indian media and some Indian officials have reacted positively to
Kabul's cease-fire and efforts at national reconciliation. The Indians
lobbied the recent Islamic Confere-nce summit in Kuwait to have these
measures acknowledged favorably. Afghan Foreign Minister Wakil
just concluded consultations in New Delhi; this was the highest level
Afghan visit to India since the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in late
1979.
Comment: Moscow benefits from some degree of tension between
India and Pakistan and frequently tries to play on India's suspicions
on such issues as a Pakistani military buildup or Islamabad's alleged
involvement with the Sikhs. The Soviets may hope that one byproduct
of the latest tensions wil,1 be getting Pakistan to make concessions on
Afghanistan.
The USSR has provided misleading intelligence to its clients in the
past tosintensify and exploit conflicts. Conceivably, it might have
passed-false information to India in an attempt to increase the
pressure on Pakistan�perhaps even to precipitate the fall of the Zia
regime�or to reinforce India's waning reliance on Moscow
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14 February 1987
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Moscow's reported attempts to reduce tensions would be consistent,
however, with General Secretary Gorbachev's failure during his visit
to New Delhi in November to give a specific commitment to the
Indians to support them in their disputes with Pakistan�a
development that occasioned some concern in New Delhi about
Soviet intentions in the region. Indeed, an Indo-Pakistani war might
hurt Soviet interests by disrupting Moscow's relationNiOth-betli-the-
10:g China, especially if the Soviets were drawn in 6ri India's side.
A-war could.also foster Pakistani unity just as Moscow is trying to
promote divisions within Pakistan over Islamabad's support for the
Afghan resistance. Moreover, a war might undercut efforts by
Moscow to improve its international standing by projecting 'itself as a
peacemaker in regional disputes.
Moscow is attempting to exploit India's standing in the Third World to
encourage Pakistani concessions on Afghanistan by publicizing New
Delhi's endorsement of Kabul's recent efforts at "national
reconciliation." Soviet represeptations have convinced some Indian
officials the Soviets will withdr,trom Afghanistan if a face-saving
settlement can be achieved there. New. Delhi believes such an
outcome would eliminate a principal eason for Pakistan's military
buildup.
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2 14 February 1987
Approved for Release: 2016/03/23 C06496676