NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06496671
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: March 16, 2022
• Document Release Date: July 22, 2016
• Case Number: F-2015-01415
• Publication Date: January 31, 1987

Approved for Release: 2016/03/23 C06496671
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Director of
Central
Intelligence
National Intelligence Daily
Saturday
31 January 1987
TSecLop et
rPAS Nin A7-696.1)f
31 January 1987
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Approved for Release: 2016/03/23 C06496671
Approved for Release: 2016/03/23 C06496671
Special Analysis
INDIA-PAKISTAN: Border Problems
Indian Prime Minister Gandhi and Pakistani President Zia remain
in regular contact through diplomatic Intermediaries and
anticipate that talks this weekend will reduce border tensions.
Military deployments by both sides, however, are reducing the
time available for either nation to contain an Inadvertent clash
before it erupts into full-scale hostilities. New Delhi, meanwhile,
is taking advantage of the crisis to address domestic concerns.
Although Gandhi and Zia project the mistrust that has long existed
between India and Pakistan, they have established a better rapport
than had previous leaders. Each probably has at least some
confidence in the other and almost certainly doubts the other would
allow the situation to slide into war
Foreign Secretaries To Meet
The Indian and Pakistani Foreign Secretaries, accompanied by senior
military officials, are meeting this weekend in New Delhi. Press
coverage on prospects for conciliation has been heavy, and both
sides expect the meetings to remain cordial and gradually to dispel
mutual fears of escalation. The two sides nevertheless are unlikely to
resolve their differences quickly
The Indians say
ublicly they want to discuss only a mutual drawdown of border units.
continued
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Approved for Release: 2016/03/23 C06496671
31 January 1987
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Military Dangers
The Indian and Pakistani mobilizations increase the risk that an
inadvertent local clash could spread. Indian ground and naval patrols
have strayed into Pakistani territory at least twice this month, and
small-scale shooting incidents occur regularly in Kashmir.
The military preparations by each side have reduced the warning time
either would have before an outbreak of major hostilities. In addition
to the forward deployment of ground units and the increased
readiness of the Air Forces, the Indians have dispatched troops from
the Eastern Command to the west. These steps, however, remain
largely defensive in the absence of other activity, especially logistic
preparations by either side.
continued
10 31 January 1987
Approved for Release: 2016/03/23 C06496671
Approved for Release: 2016/03/23 C06496671
Impact on Indian Domestic Security
Gandhi has used the crisis to emphasize his position that Pakistan
should curtail support for Sikh and Muslim separatist movements in
India. New Delhi also has used its charges that Pakistan is reinforcing
units opposite Punjab as a pretext to increase the Indian Army's
presence in the border states and to place all paramilitary units in
Punjab under command of the Army
The increased Army presence is likely to reassure Hindus who fear
Sikh and Muslim extremists and to weaken the appeal of opposition
politicians who play on such fears. The military moves allow Gandhi to
retain an elected moderate Sikh government In Puniab and at th7
same time, to crack down on Sikh extremists.
DIA Comment: DIA disagrees with the first two sentences of the
second paragraph. Gandhi and Zia, according to reports, are not in
communication and have little rapport. Consequently, each probably
has little confidence in the other's intention and ability to prevent war.
On the other hand, Gandhi and Pakistani Prime Minister Junejo do
have some rapport and probably more confidence in each other's
intentions.
11 31 January 1987
Approved for Release: 2016/03/23 C06496671