LIBERIA: DOE GRAPPLES WITH DISSIDENT INCURSION

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• Document Creation Date: March 9, 2023
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• Case Number: F-2017-02018
• Publication Date: February 15, 1990

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Chief Africa Division, ALA
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Central Intelligence Agency
Washington. D. C 20505
DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE
15 February 1990
Liberia: Doe Grapples with Dissident Incursion
Summary
Liberian President Doe's hapless Army remains
unable to suppress a seven week-old tribally-based
insurrection in Nimba County in northern Liberia, the
effects of which could further weaken his regime. The
insurrection was spearheaded by a group of about 100 to
150 dissidents who--with some support from Libya and
Burkina--infiltrated through Ivory Coast late last year
intending to mount a coup. Although government troops
captured plotters found in Monrovia, the rebels have
gained the support of some 200 fellow tribesmen in
Nimba. Military indiscipline and tactical and logistic
problems have severely hampered government efforts to
counter the rebels' hit and run attacks. Meanwhile,
Army and rebel atrocities so far have driven an
estimated 40 percent of the county's population into
neighboring Ivory Coast and Guinea.
Although the fighting has not threatened the
President's immediate hold on power, northern Liberia
probably will remain unstable and without security for
at least the next several months, aggravating ethnic
animosities, regional tensions, and US-Liberian
This typescript was prepared by
Office of African and Latin American
crnm
Analysis with
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Comments and queries are welcome and may b
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ALA M 90-20020CX
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relations. The brutality and ethnic character of many
of the Army's atrocities are likely to deepen domestic
opposition to Doe's regime--especially as more
inexperienced troops are sent to the area--and
encourage more Nimba residents to flee or join the
dissidents. The Army's ineffectiveness probably will
enable the dissidents to continue to harass government
forces and civilians for as long as their will and
supplies hold out. Doe may try to deflect domestic and
international criticism by blaming Washington for not
n?Yprina 1pthal military assistance
* * * * *
The Recent Incursion and Dissident Challenge
In late December, from 100 to 150 Liberian dissidents--
members of one of several anti-Doe exile groups--entered Liberia
from Ivory Coast intending to mount a coup against the Doe
government. The plotters--apparently the recipients of modest
Libyan training and funding--passed through Ivory Coast
undetected from their safehaven in Burkina. Their scheme was
ill-planned and executed, however, and they were poorly armed;
some apparently hoped to rendezvous in Monrovia and seize weapons
from a government armory. The dissidents include many former
Liberian military officers and were organized by Charles Taylor,
a former Liberian official and a fugitive from US justice, unOer
the banner of his National Patriotic Front of Liberia (NPFL).'
Although government troops quickly captured the few plotters
who reached Monrovia, fighting in northern Liberia's Nimba
County--home of the dissidents' fellow Gio tribesmen--hag picked
up steam over the past 6 weeks. at
least 200 hundred local residents probably have joined their
rebel kin. Estimates of civilian casualties have ranged from 200
to 500, although precise figures are unlikely to become
available�. The rebels probably have lost a large number of men,
but they still are able to launch hit-and-run attacks, inflicting
casualties, capturing government weapons and ammunition, and
keeping the Armed Forces of Liberia (AFL) on the defensive. The
military has brought in reinforcements--there are now between 400
and 500 troops in Nimba--and evacuated border villages in an
1 See Appendix 1 for information on Charles Taylor and the
NPFL.
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effort to isolate rebel forces, but (b)(1)
it could take up to 60 days to clear the border (b)(3)
areas of dissidents. (b)(3)
The AFL's Poor Performance
Military Indiscipline. the (W(1)
inability--or unwillingness--of AFL commanders to control their (b)(3)
troop-p, 4sc'ontributed to the military's operational
ineffectiveness and to atrocities against local tribesmen.
Unable.to distinguish among the dissidents, their civilian
allies, and innocent civilians, the army has killed many innocent
people
Soldiers have refused to obey orders and generally
have been more interested in personal gain than in fighting the
rebels. They reportedly have commandeered everything from food
to vehicles, and have made arrests primarily to extract bribes.
Ethnic Tensions. AFL atrocities have fanned deep
hOstilities between local Gio tribesmen and members of Doe's
Krahn tribe who dominate the military, the
dissidents may have killed Krahns and Mandingos in a deliberate
attempt to stir up tribal animosities. Neighboring Guinea and
Ivory Coast blame the atrocities for the flood of refugees into
their countries. Reports of random killings have diminished in
recent weeks since the AFL evacuated most of the towns along the
Nimba-Ivory Coast border and declared a dusk-to-dawn curfew for
the entire region. Still, the mostly Gio refugees say they are
unwilling to return home because they fear more military violence
as well as further ethnic score-settling by civilians
Tactical and Logistic Difficulties. The rebels' ability to
conduct ambushes in Nimba's thickly forested areas has confounded
and demoralized AFL troops--who are almost entirely lacking in
counterinsurgency training--and given the rebels a clear tactical
advantage. The military's strategy of retaking towns only to
abandon them to the insurgents at nightfall has enabled
relatively small groups of rebels to tie down large numbers of
soldiers over extended periods. The soldiers' refusal to leave
the main roads to pursue their attackers, because they fear the
rebels' alleged magical powe7s has allowif the dissidents free
movement throughout the area
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aerial resupply to Nimna is
provided twice daily by a Cessna 208 carrying troops, arms, and (W(1)
ammunition. Liberian troops in Nimba have exercised poor fire (b)(3)
control and, at the current rate of
usage, they will run out of ammunition soon.
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Regional Scapegoats
Doe has tried to deflect domestic criticism of the Army's
mishandling of the Nimba situation by charging Ivory Coast,
Burkina, and Libya with supporting the insurgents. Citing
confessions by captured dissidents, he has claimed that these
countries harbored, financed, trained, and equipped the rebels.
The President's accusations pushed regional tensions to a flash
point in early January when he asserted that his troops were
prepared to cross the border to battle insurgents harbored by
rvory Coast. In response, Abidjan warned that it would defend
its boundaries. Even though tempers have cooled in recent weeks,
Monrovia still believes Ivory
Coast tacitly supported the rebe s and has soUght unsuccessfully
to enlist other regional leaders
in criticizing Anicuan.
Despite the confessions of the captured dissidents, outside
support for the rebels was probably fairly modest, in our view.
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Responding to International Concerns
Rresident Doe has been sensitive to the international outcry
against AFL atrocities.
unlike his
dismissal of foreign accusations of military brutality after a
coup attempt in 1985, Doe this time has tried to respond to
criticism from the United States and Liberia's neighbors by
shifting key military personnel and taking other measures to
reduce tension in Nimba.
Monrovia also is concerned about international pressures to
reverse the tide of refugees streaming into neighboring Ivory
Coast and Guinea. Both countries are ill-equipped to handle
large numbers of refugees and have pleaded with Doe to resolve
the situation in Nimba so the refugees can return home.
ivorian
officials estimate that during January some 40,00 to 60,000
refugees crowded into small Ivorian border villages between
Toulepleu and Danane. The isolation of Guinea's border areas has
severely hampered accurate refugee counts in that country, but
local officials and an international relief agency estimate that
roughly 80,000 Liberians from Nimba have fled to Guinean border
areas. Ivorian and Guinean officials have gained support in
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principle from the international community, but so far only a
trickle of relief goods has reached the refugees
Based on our observations of similar situations in
the past, we believe organizational and logistic problems are
likely to delay the delivery of adequate relief supplies for
several more weeks, increasing the prospect for serious food
shortages.
Monrovia has tried to coax Liberian refugees back home, but
has few resources to commit to the effort. Doe has commissioned
the Liberian National Disaster Relief Committee, a poorly
organized, normally dormant group, to provide food and basic
government services as AFL troops clear parts of Nimba from
threats of rebel attack, and Liberian legislators and other
officials from Nimba have agreed to try to convince the refugees
that it is safe to return. Meanwhile, the International Red
Cross has been granted access to Nimba and has distributed
limited quantities of rice, cooking oil, and other emergency
supplies.
President Still in Control...For Now
The fighting in Nimba has not yet threatened the President's
hold on power. Doe's public appearances in recent weeks have
helped ease popular anxiety about his ability to cope with the
challenge. The major opposition parties apparently are abiding
by public pledges not exploit the situation.
Outlook
The AFL's ineffectiveness probably will enable the Nimba
dissidents to continue to harass military troops and civilians
for at least several more months, despite Doe's appointment of
relatively capable officials to direct the Nimba campaign. The
rebels probably can survive by hiding in tiny off-road hamlets
where AFL troops are unlikely to venture. Rebel operations will
be limited not so much by AFL troop movements as by their small
numbers and ability to capture weapons, ammunition, and other
eauipment from government forces.
AFL discipline problems are likely to
reemerge as the government sends in fresh, untrained troops
recently recruited from largely criminal elements. A resulting
increase in AFL atrocities would encourage more Nimba residents
to flee or join the dissidents. As ammunition stocks dwindle,
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AFL troops probably will become even less willing to risk
patroling outside base camps, leaving the field open for expanded
rebel activity. If rebel threats to attack Krahn towns in
neighboring Grand Jide County--where villagers reportedly have
armed themselves as a precaution--ar7 carried out, ethnic
tensions would worsen considerably.
Liberian refugees are unlikely to return to their homes
during the next several months without credible assurances that
the Overnment can protect them and provide relief assistance.
Ivory.,Coast, on the other hand, has already programmed relief
supplies for at least three months, with a likely extension to
six months if warranted, although Guinean and Ivorian impatience
with Monrovia's ineffectiveness is likely to grow if the
situation drags on.
Fallout from the dissident incursion is likely to complicate
Doe's already chronic domestic problems. The President's tribal
.reconciliation campaign, which has helped lower resentment of the
regime in recent years, has been set back dramatically by ethnic
-nimosities fanned during the recent fighting. Hostility among
tribal groups within the AFL is likely to continue
especially if fresh troops are recruited from tribal groups
distrustful of their officers and each other. Over time, senior
military officers may become increasingly reluctant to bolster
Doe if he continues to fail to provideadequate materiel and
personnel to units fighting in Nimba.
The economy of Nimba--considered a vital economic belt--is
likely to be hardpressed if the fighting is not halted soon.
Logging operations have been suspended in much of the county.
Some of the recently harvested rice crop probably has been
destroyed or stolen, and if refugees do not return by April to
plant rice, a large portion of Nimba's annual crop--which
accounts for 20 percent of Liberia's rice production--will be
lost. Although iron mining has not been disrupted, a wider
insurgency could jeopardize ore shipments from Yekepa to the port
at Buchanan.
Doe's difficulties in coping with the incursion and its
aftermath are likely to aggravate tensions between Liberia and
the United States. Monrovia is likely to blame Washington for
not offering lethal military assistance
He may claim that
Qadhafi has targeted him because of his relationship with
Washingto
Doe also may
see the upheaval in Nimba as another excuse to further delay
cooperation with the IMF in designing a new economic reform
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program for Liberia. Even though Doe reportedly remains
committed to holding national elections next year, wider unrest
could lead him to cite voter registration difficulties as a
justification to postpone the vote. Meanwhile, the US is likely
to come under increasing pressure from several quarters to more
strongly criticize the Doe regime as reports of human rights
abuses continue to surface, especially if Doe shows signs of
backpeddling on political and economic reforms.
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Appendix 1: Chronology of Events
December 1989 "
26
27
Dissidents who infiltrated from Ivory
Coast capture Nimba County towns of
Butlo (on Ivorian border) and Kpetu.
Military placed on alert, troops
dispatched to Nimba under command of
General Smith. Dissidents attack
government forces in Bahn.
28 Security checkpoints set up around
Monrovia.
30
31
January 1990
1
2
3
Doe broadcasts first public statement
about coup attempt, assuring listeners
all is well".
Fighting begins at Kahnple. Dissidents
capture resupply convoy with substantial
quantities of arms and munitions. Troops
close highway between Sanniquellie and
Yekepa.
Fighting in Kahnple continues. Charles
Taylor, in BBC interview, claims to
command rebels, calls for Liberians to
join the struggle to remove the Doe
government. Butlo recaptured by
military.
Kahnple recaptured by military, but hit-
and-run incidents continue throughout
Nimba.
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6
10
13
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Robert Phillips, amnestied
supporter of a failed coup attempt in
1985 and opposition party activist,
brutally murdered in Monrovia, allegedly
by uniformed men.
Doe publicly indicts Ivory Coast for
harboring Liberian dissidents and
allowing its territory to be used as a
springboard" for rebel incursions;
warns "we know how to cross borders,"
fanning speculation that hot pursuit
is planned.
Ivorian President Houphouet-Boigny
denies Doe's allegations of support for
rebels, stresses humanitarian nature
of Abidjan's policy of allowing presence
of unarmed exiles.
US Ambassador makes formal demarche
concerning human rights abuses by
Liberian military, continues to offer
disaster assistance and non-lethal
aid.
Ivorian Foreign Minister makes demarche
informing Doe that Ivory Coast would
defend its territory against incursions,
but stresses "passionate" commitment to
peace.
Government displays captured dissidents
at press conference; dissidents claim
Libyan and Burkinabe support.
Heavy fighting at Zali, on border
with Ivory Coast.
Fighting moves further south, incidents
reported at Blewali.
refugees in
Guinea and Ivory Coast exceed 50,000.
Doe threatens publicly to execute
soldiers who harm civilians.
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Rebels retake Kahnple and seize weapons,
also attack AFL troops near Zogowe.
General Craig arrives in Nimba County to
take command of the anti-insurgency
force, replacing General Smith, who
suffers from ill health and has been
unable to maintain discipline or morale.
26 AFL retakes Kahnple.
29
30
February
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Doe accuses US of focusing on military
abuses rather than the "Libyan-backed
incursion".
Guinean President Conte and Sierra
Leone's President Momoh meet with Doe in
Monrovia to urge restraint. Offer
expressions of solidarity but refuse to join
Doe in blaming Ivory Coast.
AFL retakes and occupies Kahnple.
Liberian refugee count in Guinea may exceed
80,000, with another 60,000 estimated in the
Ivory Coast.
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