CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1958/10/25

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06232622
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: January 27, 2020
• Document Release Date: January 30, 2020
• Publication Date: October 25, 1958

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25 October 1958
Copy No. C 59
CENTRAL
TELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
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25 OCTOBER 1958
I. THE COMMUNIST BLOCS-
USSR - Nuclear test at Novaya Zemlya
on 24 October probably in megaton range.0
Taiwan Strait - Shelling sporadic dur-
ing afternoon of 24 October.
Hungary threatens retaliation for
alleged US "interference in internal
affairs."
II. ASIA-AFRICA
Cairo and Damascus concerned over
possibility Israel may attack Jordan.�
Tunisian Government may become
target of some Algerian rebel ele-
ments.
Pakistan - Mirza announces new cab-
inet, headed by General Ayub.
0 Philippines - Some military groups
exploring possibility of eventually
taking over government.
0 Indonesia - Government receives
"peace"-overtures from North
Celebes rebel group.
LATE ITEM
GMIC statement on 11 October Tyura
Tam launching. (TOP SECRET EIDER)
TAP crrrnIT
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
25 October 1958
DAILY BRIEF
L THE COMMUNIST BLOC
Soviet nuclear test: The Joint Atomic Energy Intelligence
Committee made the following announcement at 1530 hours on
24 October:
"The Atomic Energy Detection System has reported
that an explosion occurred at 0803 GMT on 24 October
in the vicinity of Novaya Zemlya.
*Comment: This is the 15th explosion detected since 30 Septem-
ber, when the USSR resumed nuclear testing in the Novaya Zemlya
area, and the seventh with a yield greater than one megaton.
Taiwan Strait situation: Communist artillery fired more
than 900 rounds during the first two hours of the bombardment
which resumed at 1100 (Taipei time) on 24 October. but firing
during the afteriron was described as sporadic.
(Page 1) (Map)
Hungary: Hungary is threatening to take retaliatory action
against the US Government because of "contemptuous acts in
Hungary and in international organizations" by US officials.
The most recent threats followed US actions on behalf of the
Vatican in the Mindszenty case and official American statements
on the second anniversary of the Hungarian revolution. The
Hungarian deputy foreign minister hinted earlier this month
that the US Legation in Budapest might be asked to reduce its
staff. (Page 3)
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II. ASIA-AFRICA
�
UAR: The press and officials in Cairo and Damascus
profess to be concerned that Israel, supported by Britain
and France, is "plotting" to attack Jordan following the de-
parture of the British forces from that country. While the
UAR probably is genuinely apprehensive that developments
in Jordarl, at least partly inspired by UAR propaganda and
clandestine activity, may in fact lead to Israeli action,
Cairo seems even more anxious at the moment to use this
apprehension to justify any new arms deal with the Soviet
bloc. Israel's repeated warnings that action might have to
be taken if events in Jordan developed unfavorably for
Israeli interests are also worrying UN circles at this time.
(Page 4)
Algeria-Tunisia: The regime of Tunisian President
Bourguiba may become a target of frustrated and confused
Algerian rebel elements operating from Tunisia. These
elements are said to be siding "completely" with Nasir in
the UAR-Tunisian dispute and to be ready to act against
Tunisia. While there is no evidence that such drastic ac-
tion is imminent, the inadequately equipped Tunisian secu-
rity forces by themselves would probably be unable to sup-
press a hostile move by any substantial number of the re-
ported 10,000 rebel troops located in or near Tunisia.
(Page 6)
*Pakistan: President Mirza on 24 October announced the
formation of a new cabinet composed of four army pfficers
and eight civilian specialists. General Ayub was named prime
minister in addition to his duties as chief administrator of
martial law, which continues in effect. Indications of an
eventual rift between Mirza and Ayub, who has emerged as
the ,dominant figure, are growing.
(Page 7)
25 Oct 58
DAILY BRIEF ii
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Philippines: Certain military groups have been explor-
ing the possibility of an eventual take-over from the Garcia
regime. These talks, which appear to have been given im-
petus by recent governmental changes in Pakistan and Burma,
V___have most likely not reached a serious stage. If conditions
b\ in the Philippines continue their slow deterioration, however,
the climate for a coup attempt might ultimately be created.
(Page 8)
Indonesia: The Djakarta government has received over-
tures for a peace settlement from the North Celebes rebel
group, according to Foreign Minister Subandrio. Although
the central government will refuse formal negotiations, it
apparently is willing to make covert contact.
(Page 9)
LATE ITEM
GMIC Statement�of 24 October 1958: Supplemental State-
ment on the 11 October 1958 Tyura Tam Activity--
1. On 11 October 1958 the Guided Missile Intelligence
Committee (GMIC) reported the probable launch of a space
vehicle from Tyura Tam at 1740 EDT that date.
2. Information which has become available since 11 Oc-
tober has tended to establish that the operation failed to achieve
its intended purpose. there is insuf-
ficient evidence to judge the operation as being successful or
unsuccessful.
25 Oct 58
DAILY BRIEF iii
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ZI=ITTITa=rS:MiriM'COERM,
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~w Communist troop *
vuu strength �
Nationalist troop
vvv strength �
1�f Pistons fighter
-4- Jet fighter
+ Piston:light bomber
4 Jet light bomber
Ground-attack
SELECTED AIRFIELDS INDICATED IN BOLD TYPE
Hengyang,
80806/ 81020
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NANCHANG
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H NG KONG
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, Nanking
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23,000
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TAIWAN
331,000
!STATUTE MILES
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I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC
�
Taiwan Strait Situation
Communist artillery fired more than 900 rounds against
the Chinmens during the first two hours of the bombardment
which resumed at 1100 Taipei time on 24 October after a
23-hour lull. The initial firing, which was directed against:
all of the islands in the Chinmen group, was described as
"moderately harassing"; later in the afternoon the firing was
described as "sporadic." Nationalist guns returned the fire.
the Commu-
nists are continuing to rotate jetfighter units in the coastal '
area. About 32 jet fighters, possibly a regiment, flew from
Swatow's Chenghai airfield to Canton on 23 October.
Several TU-2 piston tight bombers, posiibly subordinate
to the 23rd Air Division, were operating in the Huiyang area
on 23 October, A
total of three TU-2's of the Chenghsien-based 23rd Air Divi-
sion flew to Changsha on 6 and 14 October, but TU-2's were
not detected in flight to the Huiyang area from Changsha. In
view of the small number of aircraft involved--three to five--
no particular significance can be attached to this move.
There is evidence that the Chinese Nationalists may be
planning to resume night propaganda airdrops over the China
mainland. Taipei Radio reported on 24 October that the Taiwan
tobacco and rice monopoly bureau has prepared 100,000 packs
of cigarettes for airdrop, each of which will contain a safe-
conduct pass to "freedom."
In commenting on the Dulles-Chiang communiqu�the of-
ficial Kuomintang newspaper Central Daily News asserts that
the only way to deal with the Chinese Communists "is by means
of force." The paper also says that the Nationalist campaign to
recover the China mainland "seeks to couple a war in the Taiwan
Strait area with a revolution on the mainland." It is not be be
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25 Oct 58
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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"a defensive war limited only to the defense of Quemoy and
Matsu." Another Kuomintang _newspaper, the Hsin Sheng Pao,
says that the only effective measure the Nationalists can adopt
is an "offensive attack against the aggressors."
These comments, which appear to contradict the spirit and
possibly also the letter of the communiqu�probably were intended
to offset any public impression that the government had weakened
in its resolve to recover the China mainland. It is possible that
the word has been quietly passed through party circles that the
communiqu�epresents an accommodation to American opinion
rather than a shift of Nationalist policy.
The initial Soviet reaction to the communiqu�haracterizes
the statement as a clear expression of "American intentions to
continue its policy of blunt interference in the internal affairs of
China." According to one widely broadcast Soviet commentary,
the purpose of the visit was to "increase tensions" in the area and
pave the way for "further provocations" against the Peiping re-
gime. The broadcast also assailed American propaganda for
"falsely" claiming that the secretary intended to persuade the
Nationalist Government to adopt a "moderate course, especially
toward the offshore islands of Quemoy and Matsu."
Peiping has not issued a numbered "serious warning" against
alleged US intrusions into Chinese Communist territorial waters
sinpe 22 October.
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25 Oct 58
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 2
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Hungary Threatens Retaliation Against United States
The Kadar regime on both 22 and 23 October threatened
undefined retaliatory action against the United States for "con-
temptuous acts in Hungary and in international organizations"
by American officials. These threats were made in connection
with a Vatican request, presented to Hungary by the Ameri-
can charg�n Budapest, that Cardinal Mindszenty be allowed
to attend the Sacred College of Cardinals now convening in
Rome. Hungary abruptly rejected the request, characteriz-
ing this as another US intervention in Hungary's internal
affairs, which "compels" it "to follow this matter with in-
creasing attention."
In answer to a speech by Ambassador Lodge commem-
orating the second anniversary of the Hungarian revolution,
the Hungarian permanent representative in the UN charged
the United States with attempting to "undermine the peaceful
life of the people and the state order of Hungary," and he
threatened that if the attempts continue, his government �
iNdir find the appropriate ways and means of giving a
commensurate reply."
'The Hungarians' current bellicose attitude is consistent
with the violent anti-American campaign which has been
waged within Hungary for the past two months, admittedly in
preparation for a counterattack against Western arguments
when the Hungarian question comes up for debate in the
current UN General Assembly session. The Hungarian
Government hinted on 2 October at possible action against
the American Legation in Budapest. An immediate break
in relations is unlikely, but, according to the American
charg�n Budapest, the possibility of an eventual break cannot
be ruled out. This possibility has added significance, since any
break in relations would presumably leave the cardinal, whom
the regime considers a convicted criminal and unpunished
"counterrevolutionary," at the regime's tnercy,
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II. ASIA-AFRICA
UAR Concern Over Possible Israeli Move Against Jordan
The current campaign of the UAR, denouncing what it
judges to be a military build-up of Israel by France and
Britain, appears in part intended to justify UAR arms
negotiations with the Soviet Union, actually begun prior
to the Israeli purchases in the West. At the same time,
however, the Arabs appear genuinely ,suspicious that
Britain and France are preparing to support an Israeli
move into Jordan if trouble should break out following the
departure of British troops.
The Egyptians may also be attempting to maneuver the
United States and other UN powers into preventing any Israeli
military move against Jordan, while the UAR proceeds to
work for establishment of a pro-UAR regime there.
Recent Israeli efforts to purchase arms abroad have
resulted in a British agreement to sell 200 armored half-
tracks and about 30 miscellaneous service and maintenance
vehicles from surplus stocks. Between 11 and 20 October,
three Israeli ships unloaded between 65 and 75 half-tracks
and 20 to 30 one-and-one-hall-ton trucks at Haifa. The ori-
gin of these shipments is unknown. Israel has recently
purchased recoilless rifles from the United States, and two
submarines and possibly 55 medium tanks from Britain.
Israel has also sought arms, particularly combat aircraft,
from France, although the results of this effort are unknown.
Israel, however, has recently purchased three more French
Nortlas aircraft suitable for transporting paratroops. Israel
now has at least six of these transports, in addition to 16 C-47's.
In the event of an attack on West Jordan, Israel would probably
commit elements of its parachute brigade to seize the Allenby
Bridge over the Jordan River, thereby gaining control of the
most important line of communication between Transjordan
and the West Bank.
UAR-Soviet arms negotiations seem to have gone forward
without any close relation to Israeli requisitions; UAR Vice
President Amir's mission to Moscow this week was almost
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certainly planned well before Britain announced the sale of
the two submarines, which ostensibly triggered the current
UAR press campaign.
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Algerian Rebel Troops Displaying Increased Hostility
Toward Bourguiba
Elements of the 10,000 Algerian rebel troops reported op-
erating from Tunisia have reportedly become increasingly
hostile toward President Bourguiba in recent weeks.
these elements side "completely" with Nasir
in his dispute with Tunisia, are receptive to Cairo radio's
claims that Bourguiba is holding back the Algerian independ-
ence movement, and are prepared to take over Tunisia at
any time.
Heightened rebel suspicion of Bourguiba--especially as to
his dealings with France--
Responsible American journalists who had contact
with rebel troops.in July and again in September encountered
widespread contempt for Bourguiba and much criticism of his
"pro-French views."
Top level rebel political and military leaders, who clashed '
publicly with Bourguiba last summer over an oil pipeline con-
cession he granted to a French company, have not recently
evinced any serious dissatisfaction with the Tunisian President.
These leaders, however, now may be losing control of some of
their front line fighters who are reported confused and frustrated
over recent developments with respect to the Algerian situation.
,Drastic action by Algerian rebels against the Bourguiba re-
gime does not appear imminent. Should an attempt be made,
however, by a significant number of the rebel forces deployed
in or near Tunisia, the inadequately equipped Tunisian security
forces by themselves would probably be unable to suppress it.
SECRET
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Pakistan
President Mirza on 24 October announced the formation
of a cabinet to deal with the new Pakistani regime's major ad-
ministrative and economic problems. Army commander Ayub
was named prime minister. The cabinet includes three other
army generals and eight non-political civilian experts. Mansur
Qadir, a little-known lawyer from Lahore, was appointed foreign
minister; The constitution has not been restored; martial law continues.
This move, following the reorganization of old ministries
and the reassignment of senior civil servants ordered on 19
October, should help fill the policy vacuum which has hindered
the operation of government departments since the take-over on
7 October. Implementation of the reforms promised by Mirza
and Ayub has been slowed by administrative confusion and lack
of direction. Civil servants have been afraid to act without in-
structions from the martial-law authorities, who apparently
have not been certain how to direct them.
General Ayub, who will continue to function as chief martial-
law administrator and army commander, will head the ministries
of defense and Kashmir affairs besides serving as prime minis-
ter. His prominent position, along with the presence of the other
top army officers in the cabinet, suggests the Pakistani Army will
play a dominant role in civil affairs even after martial law is
lifted.
Indications of an eventual rift between Mirza and Ayub are
growing. Each appears to be trying to top the other in state-
ments to the press. Mirza is reported increasingly worried
over his ability to control the more powerful Ayub, and already
may be considering ways of eventually removing him from gov-
ernment leadership. As long as Ayub's prestige with the people
and his support among the armed services remains intact, how-
ever, Mirza is not likely to risk a move against him. Ayub,
who has emerged as the dominant figure in the regime, is more
likely to try to oust Mirza if the President fails to cooperate
or attempts to undermine Ayub's position.
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Military in Philippines May Be Considering Eventual Action
Against President Garcia
Certain military elements in the Philippines appear to
be continuing exploratory discussions of a coup to unseat
President Garcia's regime. The army chief of staff, accord-
ing to one source, was approached about such an effort, but
is said to have refused. Another report alleges that Vice
President Macapagal has been confidentially informed of a
"planned build-up" leading to a military coup, possibly to
be led by Defense Secretary Vargas.
The Philippines director of intelligence, in assessing
the situation, is said to believe now that a well-planned coup
could succeed. Ile,speculates that the recent take-overs in
Burma and Pakistan, executed under the anti-Communist
banner, might provide a good excuse for similar action in
the Philippines. In this connection, he noted a consistent
build-up of Defense Secretary Vargas as a strong anti-
Communist.
These reports are similar to earlier ones of dissatis-
faction among military elements. Their vagueness suggests
that in any event discussions along these lines probably have
not reached a serious stage. There is, however, considerable
disgruntlement in the Philippines over both economic and
political conditions, abetted by the marked failure of Garcia
to excite popular enthusiasm. Criticism of corruption and
maladministration has grown in recent months, and the
continued slow deterioration eventually could provide the
rAwessarv_m_atilmtinn for an anti-Garcia move.
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Celebes Dissident Leaders Repotted Making Peace Approach
Foreign Minister Subandrio told the American ambas-
sador that the central government has received a communica-
tion from North Celebes dissidents led by Colonels Kawilarang
and Warouw indicating that they are ready to accept Indonesia's
present constitution. The message implied that the dissidents
are convinced that the central government is meeting their
demands by taking anti-Communist measures and steps
toward solving regional financial problems.
Subandrio said the government would not negotiate with the
rebels, but he did not rule out the possiblity of reaching a
covert understanding. He said the North Celebes rebellion
would be easier to solve than the one in Sumatra, since the
former had less popular support.
Periodic peace feelers from various dissident spokes-
men as well as the central government have been reported,
particularly since the fall of major towns in North Celebes
last August. As described by Subandrio, the Kawilarang-
Warouw approach is a more moderate dissident position than
any previously expressed. Any follow-through, however,
would probably depend on government terms for treatment
of dissident leaders.
When and if a settlement is arranged, it is likely to be
piecemeal as the dissidents become less hopeful of the success
of their revolt and more factionalized. Colonels Kawilarang
and Warouw may not be acting for all leaders in North Celebes
and are even less likely to be speaking for Sumatran dissidents.
Kawilarang, former military attach�n Washington, holds no
post in the rebel regime, having refused the position of com-
mander in chief for North Celebes. Warouw is acting premier
of the rebel regime.
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CI)
THE PRESIDENT
The Vice President
Executive Offices of the White House
Special Assistant for National Security Affairs
Scientific Adviser to the President
Director of the Budget
Office of Defense and Civilian Mobilization
Special Assistant for Security Operations Coordination
Board of Consultants on Foreign Intelligence Activities
Special Assistant for Foreign Economic Policy
Special Adviser 10 the President
The Treasury Department
The Secretary of the Treasury
The Department of State
The Secretary of State
The Under Secretary of State
The Under Secretary of State for Economic Affairs
The Deputy Under Secretary for Political Affairs
The Deputy Under Secretary for Administration
The Counselor
Director, International Cooperation Administration
The Director of Intelligence and Research
The Department of Defense
The Secretary of Defense
The Deputy Secretary of Defense
The Secretary of the Army
The Secretary of the Navy
The Secretary of the Air Force
The Chairman, The Joint Chiefs of Staff
Commandant, United States Marine Corps
The Director, The Joint Staff
Chief of Staff, United States Army
Chief of Naval Operations, United States Navy
Chief of Staff, United States Air Force
Assistant to Secretary of Defense for Special Operations
Director for Intelligence, The Joint Staff
Assistant Chief of Staff for Intelligence, Department of the Army
Director of Naval Intelligence, Department of the Navy
Assistant Chief of Staff, Intelligence, Department of the Air Force
Supreme Allied Commander,- Europe
Commander in Chief, Pacific
The Department of the Interior
The Secretary of the Interior
Federal Bureau of Investigation
The Director
Atomic Energy Commission
The Chairman
National Security Agency
The Director
National Indications Center
The Director
United States Information Agency
The Director
CONFIDENTIAL
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