O/NE CONSULTANTS' CONFERENCE, PRINCETON, 12-13 MARCH 1959

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06186291
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 28, 2022
• Document Release Date: August 9, 2018
• Case Number: F-2013-02252
• Publication Date: April 15, 1959

�Approved for Release 2018/07/24 006186294
Wirrmm
C kii:L rtrn
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
1;
OFP/CE OP NATIONAL ESTIMATES
15 April 1959
sirAFr MEMORANDOM NO. 13.-59
SUBJECT: 0/NE Consultantst Conference, Princeton,
12-.13 March 1959
Participants:
Consultants
Cyril Black
Robert Bowie
Lt. Gen. Harold Roe Bull
Calvin Hoover
Klaus Knorr
Col. George A. Lincoln
William Langer
Harold Linder
Philip Mosely
Joseph Strayer
T. Ouyler Young
CIA
Gen-. Charles P. Cabell
Robert Amory, Jr.
Abbott Smith
Wayne Jackson
Ludwell Montague
William Bundy
Robert Hewitt
Richard Burks
Drexel Godfrey
The Consultants' Conference reviewed NIE 7049, "The Outlook
in West African, and NIE 2249, "The Political Outlook in Prance."
The Berlin situation was discussed in conjunction with the draft-
ing of a new Berlin estimate.
The attached review of the group's disdussion covers only
the first morning session which dealt With the African paper.
36=2*
DOCUMENT NO.
NOCHANGEINCLASS Ci
0 DECLASSIFWO
VtSS.CHANGEDb0 TS SO
NEXTREVIEWDATE: WIN
AUTH: T70-2
DATE: 5 loll�
(b)(3)
0;;
Approved for Release: 2018/07/24 006186291
4
akApproved for Release: 2018/07/24 C06186291
�17
AFRICA
le Mr. SMITH opened the morning's discussion with a brief
review of 0/ME's activities during the past year in dealing with
the rapid Changes taking place in Black Africa. He hoped that
the Panel's discussion of the West Africa estimate would provide
us with some advice on how best to handle the over-all approach
to African estimative problems,
2. Mr. MONTAGUE, Chairman of the West Africa estimate,
briefly outlined some of the difficulties encountered in drafting
the paper. He called particular attention to the problem of in-
troducing background information in sufficient depth to make the
text intelligible to the many readers who have little or no
familiarity with the situation in Africa. By including the large
amount of background material, which is required under these cir-
cumstances, there is danger that the estimate mill assume the
characteristics of a handbook. A second difficulty grows out of
our limitations in interpreting the small amount of information
which is available. Most of West Africa's emerging leaders are
relative strangers to us. We have little appreciation of the cir-
cumstances of their origin or of the forces shaping their general
outlook. Over time, some of these shortcomings will be overcame
Approved for Release 2018/07/24 C06186291
Approved for Release: 2018/07/24 C0618620
o

SE(7711
as we become more familiar with Africa. In the meantime, however,
we are obliged to function under serious handicaps.
3. Hr. BOWIE inquired as to Whether or not an inventory of
our total resources in African information and exploitable sources
had been taken. Such an inventory should be taken, and it should
include the considerable amount of work being done by private
research groups. In African estimates as much background infor-
mation should be included as needed in order to make the paper
meaningful. If the policymaker is in need of a primer, then
that's What he should be given. Mr. LANGER agreed that consider-
able background material would be needed in the initial African
estimate; however, he felt we need not go so far that the estimate
becomes a primer. He wondered if it would not be possible to
expand somewhat the background section of the present paper, and
include additional supporting material through preparation of a
cartographic annex, Which would cover such factors as the location
of the principal tribal groups, climatic zones, agricultural dis-
tribution, etc. Mr. STRAYER agreed with Mr. LANCER and in addition
suggested that the services of a good anthropologist might help to
improve the paper's first section.
4. Mr. LINDER suggested that some of the problem results
from our handling too large an area. We limit estimates to a
2
StAJICS1
Approved for Release: 2018/07/24 006186291
Approved for Release 2018/07/24 C0618620
o

�SWEET'
single European country although there is a general understanding
of the background, but for Africa, where such general understand-
ing does not exist, we handle a dozen or more countries at a time.
LINDER wanted to know to what extent information wa; being received
from the British.
replied that from time to time we get
report from theBritish, but little or nothing from the Fivnch and
Belgians. Much of the British reporting contains a very pronounced
bias in favor of British interests in Africa.
5. A remark by KNORR on the need for a training program in
African studies touched off a lively discussion on the ways and
means of best implementing such a program. BOWIE called attention
to the disastrous consequences of US failure to appreciate develop-
ments in the Mickne East. He believes we are headed for the same
fate in Africa, unless there is an early effort to train personnel
capable of understanding the African situation. LANGER and
STRAYER both suggested that 0/NE assign one or two people to
African affairs, and that they be trained perhaps by an extended
residence, six months to a year, in the colonial capitals of
Europe, where they might become familiar with the large amounts
of source material the colonial administrations have accumulated
during past years. After they have obtained the necessary back-
ground they should be allowed to go to Africa and spend another
six months or so in order to test various hypotheses arrived at
- 3 -
(b)(3)
Approved for Release: 2018/07/24 006186291
0 Approved for Release: 2018/07/24 C0618601
SECRET
in Europe. MOSELY pointed but that the British and French are
probably better informed on African affairs than they are en
the Middle East and that we could hope to gain a great deal from
them. He mentioned that,theInternational of Free Trade Unions in
Brussels should prove, to be a useftl source of information. KNORR
noted that the need is not for lust a few Afticanists, but that
until there are large numbers of people working in African affairs,
cross communications and all its attendent benefits, is .not likely
to materialize.
6. LINCOLN suggested that in view of the problems involved
in drafting NIE's on Africa, the logical first step would be to
reduce the size of the task by preparing a list of the decisions
policymakers are likely to be faced with in dealing with Attica.
Such a list might be along the following lines:
(a) Boundaries, including the question of federation and
balkanization;
(b) Leadership;
(c) Bloc relations;
(d) US relations with Western colonial powers;
(e) Economic; and
(f) Political stability.
STRAYER thought that to LTNCOLNfs list should be added some con-
sideration of what appeal will strike the strongest chord among
SECRET
Approved for Release: 2018/07/24 006186291
0 Approved for Release: 2018/07/24 C061864
SECRET
the African people -- should we pitch our efforts to influence
African developments in terms of economic, political, or social
programs. BUCK added that the determination of African sociolog�
ical loyalties and motivations is of crucial importance if we hope
to win the confidence and support of an independent Africa..
7. STRAYER pointed out that despite the artificiality of
the boundaries in Africa, they have been in existence for 60 years
or more, and that boundaries have a tendency to become fixed.
Hence, we cannot be certain that ethnic considerations will result
in .any significant shift in boundaries. Commenting on L1NCOLNis
second point BOWIE pointed out that under existing conditions there
will probably be an increasing tendency for the leaders to become
autocratic. KNORR suggested that careful study be given to those
who have power, and to those who would prefer to have power.
8. SMITH then asked for the Panel's views regarding the
extent of the Soviet effort in Africa. YOUNG, speaking from the
experience of individuals recently returned from Cairo, indicated
that the Soviets are unspareing of time, money, and energy in con�
tacting Black Africans. Indeed the Soviets seem to be giving more
attention to the Africans in Cairo than they are to the Arab
students. MOSELY remarked that the Soviets are making much the
same effort in Paris and London.
- 5 -
�SEMEN--
asked for views as to the
(b)(3)
Approved for Release: 2018/07/24 006186291
0 Approved for Release 2018/07/24 C06186261)
�SECEIT�
probable direction and effect of Soviet economic effort in Africa.
UNDER remarked that in an area such as Africa, largely a producer
of surplus crops, it is the marginal buyer, the one who takes the
last 10 percent of the crop, who hol's the upper hand. In these
circumstances it was concluded that the Soviets should be able to
make considerable gains without a great expenditure of money.
- 6 -
Approved for Release: 2018/07/24 006186291