COSMOS 954, CRASH OF A RORSAT: THE IMPLICATIONS OF SOVIET AND OTHER FOREIGN COMMENTARY

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06167874
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: March 9, 2023
• Document Release Date: September 30, 2020
• Case Number: F-2019-01181
• Publication Date: March 7, 1978

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MEMORANDUM
7 March 1978
COSMOS 954, Crash of a RORSAT:
The Implications of Soviet
and Other Foreign Commentary
Introduction
World-wide attention has been directed to the activ-
ities of states in space following the malfunction of
COSMOS 954, a Soviet "ocean surveillance radar satellite"
that entered the atmosphere and impacted in Canada on
24 January. Most attention given by foreign media has
been to the possibility of nuclear contamination and
to the drama surrounding the subsequent search for por-
tions of the satellite that survived reentry. Some of
the commentary represents the sort of sensationalism
that can be expected when any imperfectly understood
subject receives sudden and intensive media attention
and thus will probably be shortlived and perhaps of
little consequence. Other issues raised, however, have
the potential for more serious and longer term disruption
of the generally benign environment in which the US and'
USSR have conducted space programs, especially recon-
naissance. '
Space programs, civilian and military, have for
the most part gone unchallenged for some two decades.
Almost all nations have apparently determined that either
such challenges would be fruitless or that it is to their
advantage not to contest the various programs. Most
third countries actively share in the benefits of numerous
nonmilitary related, space programs and institutions--for
The author of this paper is Strategic
Evaluation Center, Office of Strategic Research. r^,..m-7
and queries are welcome and qhm)1(7 hp fi.i.ron*a4 #n
SR M 78-10062X
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instance, those related to weather forecasting and remote
sensing of earth resources. These countries probably also
find convincing, arguments that unrestricted space recon-
naissance contributes to the stability of US-Soviet and
other interstate relations. At the UN Outer Space Committee
there even seems to exist a gentlemen's agreement that
issues concerning the superpowers' military programs in
space, reconnaissance as well as other types, will not be
raised.
However, among the many themes that surfaced in
available world-wide commentary in the aftermath of the
crash of COSMOS 954, have been the following:
--The Soviet satellite was a "spy satellite"
designed for radar ocean reconnaissance of surface
vessels and submarines.
--An unacceptable level of secrecy surrounds
superpower activity in space.
--Either a UN Space Information Agency or some
other legislation is needed to prevent programs
like the COSMOS 954 from being kept secret.
--A similar incident may occur again but with
more dire consequences.
--COSMOS 954 may have been shot down by a US
"killer" satellite. .
�"Uranium generators" in satellites are in
use because they are less vulnerable to destruction
than solar panels.
--US satellites with nuclear power units have
also crashed.
--The existence of a nuclear powered satellite
is analogous to orbital weapons�which COSMOS 954
might have been--a line of reasoning which tends to
focus on an issue dormant for a number of years.
--The world in general, and the superpowers
in particular, have become inured to the horrors of
nuclear catastrophe.
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--The entire event represented a rare display
of, superpower cooperation and both the US and USSR
are to be commended.
It is the purpose of this memorandum to review world
commentary on this event and to suggest possible future
implications for US space programs.
The Soviet Announcement. The first public acknow-
ledgment by the USSR that COSMOS 954 was in trouble came
on 24 January in a TASS announcement, which noted that
the satellite was a part of a program for the "exploration
and use of outer space." A subsequent TASS announcement,
which indicated that it was being carried by "all Soviet
newspapers," noted that the satellite "was sharply de-
pressurized for reasons as yet unknown on 6 January, this
year, with the result that the satellite began to come
down in a unplanned regime." [emphasis added)
Public Commentary
Spy Satellites. COSMOS 954 was generally referred
to in -Western commentary as a "Russian spy satellite,"
designed to track by "radar the movements of American
Navy ships and submarines." The French, in particular,
singled out for criticism the secrecy suriuunding Soviet
space programs. They noted that the name "'COSMW
merely corresponds to a label with the word 'Secret'
written on it" and that the Soviets have so "nicknamed
all tests which they wanted to remain unknown to their
neighbors."
The East European states, as might have been ex-
pected, repeated the TASS announcement noting that the
Soviet satellite was part of a program of "space research
and utilization." The Yugoslays, however, used the
occasion to assert their independence of Moscow and to
support their aspirations to leadership in the Third World.
They referenced without comment Zbigniew Brzezinski's
announcement that the ill-fated satellite "was a special
satellite...intended for military purposes and that the
Soviet Union had launched ten of these into orbit."
Another Yugoslav commentator alluding to the commonality
of superpower interests noted that:
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The two superpowers again do not want to
ponder much over what is involved here, even
less to inform us better about this [satellite
reconnaissance]. Believe it or not they like
to protect one another in certain of their
secret activities although these secret activi-
ties are intended at least to scare one another.
Although some commentators did treat US-Soviet
cooperation in positive terms, most were more circumspect.
An English newspaper, the 'Guardian which referred to the
incident as "a rare display of super-power cooperation
on an issue where both sides have a vested interest in
dangerous new technologies" noted, however, that "it
took the Americans almost three weeks after first becoming
aware of the possibility of a nuclear accident in space
to tell other governments." The Parisian Le Fig= noted
that Dr. Brzezinski "became much less talkirriTi.7"�When
questioned about the satellite's mission.
It Could Happen Again. There seemed to be a general
concern, that although the superpowers were reassuring
about the low probability of a nuclear catastrophe, such
could indeed happen. The London Daily Express, for
.instance suggested that the world had been given "a
gliiitpsc Ur Lim klangcia LIJat lurk i acc" ancl
No ship has been designed that cannot sink,
no aircraft that cannot crash, no manufacturing
process that cannot go wrong, no engine that
cannot seize up, no rocket that cannot explode,
and we now know no orbiting satellite that can-
not fall from the sky.
An Argentinian newspaper, the Buenos Aires Herald,
suggested that:
To judge by the reactions of government
officials in Washington, Moscow, and Ottawa, the
unscheduled descent of a nuclear-powered Soviet
satellite near the Canadian town of Yellowknife
was a routine matter, certainly nothing to get
worked up about. Less directly involved people,
not inured yet to the possibility of dangerous
radioactive material being dumped on them from
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the skies, are unlikely to be quite so sanguine.
The chances of a major mishap may be slight, but
they do exist nonetheless. What is dangerous is
the rapidly increasing casualness with which the
big powers' appear to be handling the colossal
destructive power at their disposal.
Killer Satellites. A mumber of press treatments
raised the spectre of "-killer satellites," a subject
that was receiving much public attention even before the
crash of COSMOS 954, albeit in a different context.
A Chilean commentator suggested the Soviets were looking
at the possibility that COSMOS 954 "was shot down by
another satellite, perhaps a US satellite." Still
another Chilean report suggested that the failure of a
"self-destruction mechanism on board the satellite was
particularly embarrassing" presumably because this
suggested some inherent weakness in the Soviet ASAT
program--the Soviet ASAT has been frequently reported
in open sources, to self destruct on command thereby
"killing" the target satellite. A Yugoslav commentator
indicated that it is impossible to say what had. caused
the satellite to cease functioning. Interestingly, he
seemed to imply some behind-the-scenes contention over
roy t;ie fail,Iye of COSMOS ',54 whcn hc that:
The The supposition that this [the Object which
collided with COSMOS 9541 could have been, say,
another artificial satellite--and I do not suggest
one launched for this purpose, but simply another
artificial satellite--of which there are hundreds
orbiting the earth, is very unlikely.
A subsequent Yugoslav press report on 28 January,
however, indicated that both the US and the USSR "for
several years now have been intensively working on the
production and constant improvement of 'satellite
killers" and that:
Several 'mysterious' crashes of satellites
and space vehicles indicate that, in actuality,
experimental work on antisatellite weapons is
being carried out. Meanwhile, since up to now
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both the 'attacking' and the 'attacked' satel-
lites have belonged to one of the space powers,
these 'accidents' have not gotten any publicity.
The fact that COSMOS 954 experienced decompres-
sion...at the moment when it entered...the area
where contact with it could not be maintained
from Soviet territory, has evoked speculation
that it was a 'casualty' of an American anti-
satellite weapon... Why the decompression
occurred--whether due to a defect in the cover-
ing of the satellite, an accidental collision with
some meteor or a portion of an earlier launched
satellite, or due to damage from some American
'satellite killer'--for now remains a mystery.
The commentary of senior US officials as presented
by the American media has probably served to strengthen
speculation about a connection--at least among
the uninitiated--between the crash of COSMOS 954 and a
US ASAT program. The New York Times on 30 January linked
the growing "arms race in space", the "Soviet spy satel-
lite that accidentally entered the Earth's atmosphere
over Canada", and the development of Soviet and US ASATs.
The Washington Post in an article that headlined
Secretary Brown's proposed "near doubling the US expendi-
t-rec fcr paeP wpsrenTy" indicated that the US
"Vought program is only one of many satellite killer
devices to be developed."
Although there is no explicit evidence that the
Soviets believe or are even studying the possibility
that COSMOS 954 was the victim of a US attack, it is
likely that the possibility has been suggested by some
in the Soviet Ministry of Defense. Secretary Brown in
the previously cited Washington Post article noted that
"An attack on an American satellite deep in space might
go undetected,..." The fact that momentary "probing,"
to detect a satellite's capabilities and vulnerabilities
can indeed QO undetected is certainly known by the
Soviets.
On 4 February, TASS
carried an interview with academician Leonid Sedov on
the ill-fated COSMOS 954. Sedov claimed that:
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Inasmuch as the process of depressurization
was a fast one, it may be assumed that the satel�
lite collided in flight with some other object of
natural or artificial origin. [emphasis added]
This sort of rationale for the crash of COSMOS 954
was probably devised for its "face-saving" potential.
Failure in this case--a collision with an unidentified
object--is attributable to a cause beyond Moscow's con-
trol rather than to a mechanical problem which would be
squarely within the USSR's responsibility.
The artificial linkage created in the press between
the Soviet ASAT and the USSR's radar ocean reconnaissance
satellite had, other negative implications including some
for the US. One Australian newspaper, The Age cited "some
American defense officials" who believe that the Soviet
Union "has already taken such a lead in military space
technology [in space reconnaissance and space weaponry]
that the strategic balance has been dangerously tipped
against the US." Because of the USSR's purportedly sig-
nificant lead over the US in space technology, President
Carter's initiative on ASAT arms limitation and his call
for a total ban on nuclear powered satellites were dis-
miasod as "high flying optimiom indcad." �
Soviet press reporting seemed to suggest that the USSR
was probably already laying the ground work for rejection
of the US initiative on banning nuclear powered satellites.
TASS on two occasions reported favorably on the
ongoing deliberations of the Scientific and Technical
Subcommittee of the UN Outer Space Committee and singled
out for commendation those who have indicated the "neces-
sity" of "artificial earth satellites, including those
having nuclear power facilities on board." In this con-
nection, praise was extended to Bulgaria, Hungary, other
Socialist states, and a US delegate to the UN, who re-
portedly said:
the use of nuclear-power plants in outer space
is of great interest for the USA, and holds an
important place in US outer space exploration
programs.
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c\rn7"7
A Treaty Violation? Some of the more stinging
criticisms of the USSR were made by the Japanese Com-
munist Party (JCP). Because of the Japanese public's
strong aversion to nuclear weapons and related tech-
nology,the JCP is generally impartial when it comes to
criticizing the nuclear aspects of superpower policy.
The party newspaper Akahata reported that "if this
[the COSMOS 954] was launched for a military purpose
it violated the 'space agreement.'" The 1967 UN treaty
on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space, however, merely
banned the orbiting of nuclear weapons or other means
of mass destruction and so COSMOS 954 was not in fact
a violation. In this regard the London Daily Express
conjectured:
Is the nuclear powerplant the only poten-
tially sinister thing on board? Could the
Russians be sending up craft carrying orbital
bombs?
Soviet Sensitivities. Soviet press commentary
suggests the USSR was concerned over the extent of public
condemnation and thus interested in deflecting criticism
of its responsibility for the COSMOS 954 incident:
--un 3 February Fravaa informed its readers
that the US space station, SKYLAB, was gradually
losing altitude and "could strike the Earth in
an unexpected area."
--Academician Sedov, on 4 February argued
that the Soviet Union has strictly observed the
provisions of the 1967 treaty on the principles
guiding the activities of states in the explora-
tion and use of outer space. He took pains to
dispute what he described as "absurd accusations"
by "many leading statesmen" and certain foreign
media sources that the accident represented a
threat to world peace. Assuring the public that
there were not and "could not be" any weapons on
board the satellite, Sedov charged "some circles"
in the West with "undermining the basic principles
of international cooperation and trust.
--Veteran TASS political observer Yuriy Kornilov
on 6 February accused "certain Western forces" of
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attempting to use the 'satellite's fall as a
"fresh excuse" for fanning an anti-Soviet cam-
paign. Questioning the sincerity of those in
the West who have expressed "concern" over the
Soviet COSMOS incident, Kornilov noted that
several accidents involving nuclear materials,
which often created "real and sometimes very
serious danger," could be attributed to failures
on the part of the United States.
The Aftermath: First Rumblings
The initial call for international measures to
increase control on space activities centered on the
"nuclear -aspects" of the COSMOS 954 incident rather
than on the broader questions of space reconnaissance
in general. The Canadians for instance indicated that
they would propose to the UN Outer Space Committee
that a "nuclear-free zone in near outer space" be
created. The Swedish Foreign Minister expressed con-
cern that "there does not exist any ban on the use
of nuclear reactors in space, nor is there any obliga-
tion to inform those countries that may be threatened
by a crashing satellite."
Prescriptive admonitions of a broader nature
included Cairo's call for the establishment of a "UN
Space Information Center" and the need for international
legislation "forbidding any state from keeping secret
any information such as that kept by the Soviet Union
in the COSMOS 954 incident."
The most insistent demands for international legis-
lation have come from the Japanese and in particular the
Japanese Communist Party. The JCP on 7 February submitted
a resolution to the Japanese House of Representatives
that called for a total ban on military satellites.
Among the factors cited in the JCP resolution were the
following:
--three US "nuclear-loaded" satellites had
already crashed; and
--on the average one satellite "falls to
earth" every day.
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The JCP recommended that Japan raise these and other
issues at the UN General Assembly session to be held in
May and at other international conferences as well. In
particular the JCP argued the need for the following
measures:
The [UN] treaty on space (ratified by the
Japanese Government in July 1967) should immedi-
ately be amended so as to ban totally [the]
launching [of] artificial satellites and the
military use of space objects,...
The Government should investigate the true
picture of all space objects, including satel-
lites for military purposes, nuclear-loaded
satellites and other artificial space objects
and must make public the results of the investi-
gation. [emphasis added]
At the UN. By and large, the deliberations in the
UN Outer Space Committee have been on civil and peaceful
uses of outer space. Until the COSMOS 954 incident, any
discussion of military and intelligence programs was
very carefully avoided. Following the COSMOS 954 crash,
several countries, including Japan, Sweden, Canada, and
Wczt Ccrmany "
the UN Outer Space Committee. The Japanese initially
considered raising the explicit issue of military satel-
lites but were persuaded that US and Japanese security
was partially dependent on such systems.
Searching Inquiries. The French, who as noted
earlier were critical of the secrecy surrounding Soviet
space programs, published a fairly detailed study of
radar ocean reconnaissance satellites as a result of
the crash of COSMOS 954 and drew attention to[
"Irrational" Reactions. It seems likely that the
effects of the COSMOS 954 incident will linger for some
time and that many of the effects will be unpredictable
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th24.pn!. ,
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because of what may be described as the "irrational"
reaction of third countries. A Caracas radio station for
instance on 15 February, in the aftermath of the failure
of COSMOS 954, reported the ostensible crash of a US
satellite over Venezuelan territory.
The object entered Venezuelan skies and
descended in a parachute. The people of Pregonero
went to see the strange descending object and fin-
ally located it. It is an object that can be moved
by two men with many cables, a motor and a long
antenna.
It has US Air Force markings on a rubber
protector and could possibly be a satellite
for meteorlogical purposes.
Whatever actually landed--if anything--was definitely not
a US satellite. Subsequent inquiries by who
requested the return of any portions of the object that
might have survived reentry met with a negative response
by Venezuelan government officials, who seemed to know
nothing of the incident.
Despite their clearly expressed interest, many states
are nui.. alwy knc,wledgeable nc.r arc thcir
sarily rational when it comes to space matters. For example,
developing nations interested in eventually having their
own communication satellites in geostationary orbit have
expressed concern about the possible overcrowding of that
special orbit. Although the physical space involved is
more than adequate to accommodate a very large number of
satellites, the radio frequency interference problem makes
proper spacing of satellites vital, thereby limiting the
number of satellites that can usefully occupy the space.
These countries have indicated the desire to "reserve" slots
in geostationary orbit for their potential satellites
so that when the satellites are ready, there will be room
for them. Colombia, Indonesia and Ecuador have led a
protracted debate in the UN Space Committee, on sovereignty
over the geostationary orbit, citing it "as a scarce
natural resource which exists exclusively by virtue of its
physical relation to the gravitational phenomena generated
by the earth and particularly by underlying territory."
In their view, the segments of the orbit lying above
equatorial states were not in outer space but a separate
and integral part of their national space.
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Conclusion
COSMOS 954 and the coincident press attention to
anti-satellite weapons have served to focus world-wide
attention on superpower activity in space. How far such
concerns will be carried is difficult to foresee.
On the one hand, the very real contributions the
superpower space programs have made for mankind are
difficult to ignore. In addition, of the 157 nations
of the world only nine--Andorra, Bhutan, Equatorial
Guinea, Gambia, Grenada, Guinea-Bissau, San Marino, Sao
Tome and Principe, and Western Samoa--do not use space
data in some way at this time.* Thus it is clear that
"non-launcher nations have a real stake in all types
of space activities and hence in maintaining the status
quo in outer space. On the other hand, interest in
space matters does not always imply knowledge or under-
standing of all the related issues. Should future mishaps
occur, irrational overreactions like those generated by
the COSMOS 954 incident cannot be ruled out nor is the
fragile regime in space likely to withstand that sort
of controversy for long. Further, manipulation of
growing Third World awareness of space activities is
likely. Those underdeveloped nations which generally
pursue an independent foreign policy are likely targets
for states seeking to use "space"--Yugoslavia tor
instance--to enhance their leadership credentials in
the Third World. Thus, as indicated in world-wide press
commentary, incidents like the COSMOS 954 crash carry
at least the potential for disrupting the current regime
in space and not necessarily because of a "real issue."
Six nations, in addition to the US and USSR--five of
which are US allies--have developed their own launch
capability or launch facilities: Australian, China, France,
Italy, Japan and the United Kingdom. Analysis of the
press reporting available from the US allies in this list
4 "Use of space data" is quite broadly defined here, and does not
imply that a country has an expressed interest in conducting indepen-
dent activities in space, nor possesses a governmental body established
to promote space research. Membership in organizations such as Intelsat
or the World Meteorological Organization was sufficient to qualify a
state for inclusion in this category.
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i ����
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suggests the existence of reservations or concern about
the secrecy surrounding space programs. Although there
are powerful incentives which will likely convince these
nations to accept US guidance on sensitive space questions,
other factors, for instance indigenous public opinion,
may eventually divert these nations from a course which
the US perceives as in its alliest interests. The French
apparently intend to call for the creation of an inter-
national. control agency that would use satellites to
monitor disarmament agreements. Citing the failure of the
US and the USSR to achieve a satisfactory disarmament
agreement after years of effort, French President Giscard
d'Estaign suggested that a new approach to nuclear and
conventional arms control should involve all the nations of
the world--not just the superpowers--under the United Nations.
Should he follow through, the question of espionage from
space will likely get a more thorough public review than
ever before.
Although only the USSR has the means to destructively
interfere with satellites, all states have it within their
power to exert pressure on the superpowers through public
condemnation of various space activities. Neither the
US or the USSR could indefinitely remain immune to that
type of pressure. They will find it increasingly diffi-
cult to ignore the uerceotions held by most other
countries of superpower space activities and will probably
have to accommodate those views to some extent. Any
move towards accommodation, be it public disclosure of
sensitive space reconnaissance programs or some other
form, is likely to become a contentious issue between
the US and USSR. Given the competitive relationship that
exists, each is likely to view the others concession as an
example of "one-upsmanship" designed to curry favor amongst
the Third World. Also the gentlemen's agreement that seems
to exist whereby the US and USSR at least refrain from de-
tailed discussion of space reconnaissance would likely
fall victim to this sort of accommodation. Whether sig-
nificantly enhanced world-wide knowledge of space
activities will ultimately prove to be stabilizing or
destabilizing is difficult to foresee.
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SUBJECT: COSMOS 954, Crash of a RORSAT: The Implications
of Soviet and Other Foreign Commentary
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