H/W SUPPORT CABLE FOR OCPAS LAB 96/051 FOR 02 MARCH 1996

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06112377
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: March 8, 2023
• Document Release Date: March 25, 2019
• Case Number: F-2013-02649
• Publication Date: March 2, 1996

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S E
P 020629Z MAR 96
FM CIA
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SE--LT
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FROM: CPAS
INFO CPAS
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SE...tr-14,LZ.' �
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SUBJECT: H/W SUPPORT CABLE FOR OCPAS LAB 96/051 FOR 02 MARCH 1996
HAVANA APPEARS TO HAVE MISCALCULATED THE INTERNATIONAL REACTION AND
ACTED LARGELY OUT OF FRUSTRATION WITH REPEATED INCURSIONS BY BROTHERS
TO THE RESCUE WHEN IT ORDERED THE DESTRUCTION OF THE TWO
s US�REGISTERED CIVILIAN AIRCRAFT LAST SATURDAY.
-- LAST JULY, PRESIDENT CASTRO DESCRIBED THE GROUP'S FIRST LEAFLET
DROP OVER HAVANA AS AN "EXTRAORDINARY PROVOCATION," ADDING THAT
CUBA'S PATIENCE COULD WELL BE EXHAUSTED. THE FOREIGN MINISTRY ISSUED
A WARNING THAT, IF ADDITIONAL TERRITORIAL VIOLATIONS OCCURRED,
INTRUDING BOATS COULD BE SUNK AND AIRCRAFT SHOT DOWN.
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-- ANOTHER LEAFLET DROP OVER HAVANA IN MID-JANUARY ANGERED AND
EMBARRASSED THE MILITARY, WHICH APPARENTLY WAS CAUGHT OFFGUARD.
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CASTRO MAY HAVE GIVEN THE MILITARY A GREEN LIGHT AFTER CONCLUDING
THAT US STEPS TO RESTRAIN THE CUBAN AMERICAN GROUP WERE INSUFFICIENT
TO PREVENT FURTHER TERRITORIAL VIOLATIONS.
WEIGHING THE RISKS
THE DECISION TO DESTROY--RATHER THAN TRY TO TURN BACK OR FORCE
DOWN--THE AIRCRAFT REMAINS PUZZLING AND COMES AT A TIME WHEN
CONDITIONS AT HOME AND ABROAD HAVE BEEN IMPROVING FOR THE CASTRO
GOVERNMENT.
-- IN THE INTERNATIONAL ARENA, HAVANA HAS MADE SIGNIFICANT STRIDES IN
INCREASING ITS LEGITIMACY.
-- AT HOME, THE ECONOMY IS BEGINNING TO RECOVER FROM AN ECONOMIC
CONTRACTION OF 35 PERCENT FOLLOWING THE CUTOFF OF SOVIET AID IN
1989.
-- CASTRO HAS LITTLE TO FEAR FROM HIS MOST VISIBLE OPPONENTS, THE
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SMALL AND DIVIDED DISSIDENT COMMUNITY. AS IT DEMONSTRATED LAST WEEK
IN CRACKING DOWN ON THE UMBRELLA GROUP CUBAN COUNCIL, THE GOVERNMENT
HAS KEPT DISSIDENTS MARGINALIZED AND OFF-BALANCE THROUGH
INFILTRATION, HARASSMENT, AND IMPRISONMENT.
THE CASTRO GOVERNMENT DOUBTLESS ANTICIPATED A NEGATIVE US REACTION TO
THE SHOOTDOWN, BUT IT SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN TAKEN ABACK BY THE VEHEMENCE
OF WASHINGTON'S RESPONSE AND THE WIDESPREAD INTERNATIONAL
CONDEMNATION OF CUBA'S BEHAVIOR.
-- NATIONAL ASSEMBLY PRESIDENT ALARCON AND FOREIGN MINISTER ROBAINA
WERE UNCHARACTERISTICALLY UNPREPARED WHILE PRESENTING THEIR CASES--AN
INDICATION THE GOVERNMENT IS SCRAMBLING TO MANAGE THE CONTROVERSY
RATHER THAN WORKING FROM A WELL-PLANNED STRATEGY.
LIMITING THE DAMAGE
AT THIS POINT, HAVANA IS TRYING TO FORESTALL ANY INTERNATIONAL
SANCTIONS AND TO DO WHAT IT CAN TO PUT THE INCIDENT BEHIND IT.
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-- BY PAINTING BROTHERS TO THE RESCUE AS A ROGUE ORGANIZATION, THE
CASTRO GOVERNMENT IS TRYING TO IMPROVE ITS INTERNATIONAL IMAGE AND
PRESS THE US TO IMPOSE STRONGER RESTRAINTS ON THE GROUP'S ACTIVITIES.
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