PRINCETON CONSULTANTS' MEETING, 18-19 OCTOBER 1962, AND THE CUBA ESTIMATE

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 06072166
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 28, 2022
• Document Release Date: August 9, 2018
• Case Number: F-2013-02252
• Publication Date: April 16, 1963

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Approved for Release: 2018/07/24 C06072166
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. 16 April 1963
MEMORANDUM FOR THE. DIRECTOR
SUBJECT: Princeton Consultants' Meeting, 18-19 October 1962,
and the Cuba Estimate
1. During this meeting I, as Chairman, knew that
offensive missiles had been discovered in Cuba, but I could
not tell this to the Consultants. We had scheduled a dis-
cussion of the Cuba estimate, however, and eventually I
posed to them the question: would the Soviets put offensive
missiles into Cuba. The answer was unanimously and em-
phatically no. I then remarked that their judgment agreed
with our estimate.
2. It should be said that the Consultants' opinion
was not given on the basis of an extensive examination of
all indicators. The Consultants did know what was generally
known, e.g. that SANS were in Cuba. But their estimate was
based on their judgment of Soviet conduct and policy.
3. In the circumstances, I would not have considered
it fair to the Consultants to press them for a judgment based
on all indicators -- I was sufficiently embarrassed as it was.
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4, Consultants present were: Hamilton Fish
Armstrong, Cyril Black, Allen Dulles, Caryl Haskins,
Calvin Hoover, Klaus Knorr, Col. G.A. Lincoln, Harold
Linder, Max Nillikan, Philip Mosely, Lucian Pyy,
Bay Sontag, Joseph Strayer, and Cuyler Young.
5. It is worth adding that at the next Princeton
meeting, when Sherman Kant was in the chair, the Con-
sultants all declared that they had made the only
defensible estimate, even though it had turned out
to be wrong.
ABBOT SMITH
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Approved for Release: 2018/07/24 006072166