CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/10/10

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 05973638
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: June 6, 2019
• Document Release Date: June 27, 2019
• Publication Date: October 10, 1952

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10 October 1952
Copy No, 5
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLAM
� DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: T S
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
AMR RR 70-2
Office of Current Intelligence DATE.:
REVIEWE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
SOVIET UNION
1. MIG-15's apparently being withdrawn from Austria and
Hungary (page 3).
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
Effective government in Indonesia unificeiy in near future (page 4).
SOUTH ASIA
Embassy foresees increased Soviet pressure on Afghanistan
(page 5).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
Mossadeq's supporters demand uncompromising stand on oil
issue (page 5).
Egypt may join MEDO if British leave Canal .one (page 6).
Britain considers supplying jets to Egypt (page 7).
WESTERN EUROPE
9. American plane outside Berlin corridor when fired upon (page 8).
10. French reject American advice on military budget (page 8).
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SOVIET UNION
1. MIG-15's apparently being withdrawn from Austria and Hungary:
2.
Recent reports on activity at Soviet
airfields in Austria and Hungary suggest
the withdrawal of significant jet fighter
strength. Observations of Wiener Neustadt
airfield near Vienna as recently as 3 October reveal the presence of
only nine instead of the usual 70 MIG-15's.
he crates
previously observed at Wiener Neustadt were for the purpose of
removing the MIG's stationed there to an unknown destination.
the MIGis usually based at Deutsch
Wagram and Budapest/Tokol airfields were not there in late
September and early October.
Comment: The apparent shift of jet
fighters from the 59th Air Army involving as many as 120 of its
190 MIG-15's is reminiscent of the eastward departure from
Germany in early October 1951 of more than 200 jet fighters of
the 24th Air Army with their well-trained pilots. These jets were
partially replaced in succeeding months.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
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3. Effective government in Indonesia unlikely in near future:
Indonesian Vice President Hatta has 3.3(h)(2)
expressed to Ambassador Cochran his
fear that, regardless of whether the
Wilipo cabinet survives the present
crisis, there will be no effective government before parliamentary
elections are held. He said the people are clamoring for a dictator
but that he had advised against this solution, pointing out that no
one could predict how such a dictatorship "might end."
Comment: National elections have been
repeatedly postponed and none is now scheduled.
After the fall of the two preceding cabinets,
in March 1951 and February 1952, consideration was given to the
adoption of an autocratic form of government. President Sukarno
and Vice President Hatta frequently have been mentioned as the
leaders most likely to assume direct power but neither has such
ambitions.
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SOUTH ASIA
4. Embassy foresees increased Soviet pressure on Afghanistan:
The American Embassy in Kabul believes
that Soviet pressure on Afghanistan is
threatening South Asian security and
that the USSR intends to use restrictive
economic measures to prevent the development of northern
Afghanistan. The Embassy also feels that subversive action will
be coordinated with economic restrictions for maximum effort.
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Comment: There is no indication that
, Soviet interest in Afghanistan is now greater than before, or that
the recent Moscow protest is the first step in a campaign to increase
pressure on that country.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. Mossadeq's supporters demand uncompromising stand on oil issue:
Mossadeq's supporters are forcing him 3.3(h)(2)
to continue uncompromising on the oil
issue, according to Ambassador Henderson.
The left wing of the National Front recently
declared publicly that Iran must no longer waste time in fruitless
negotiations. Kashani and other extremist members of the National
Front are becoming convinced that it is possible to run the country
without oil revenues.
The Ambassador comments that it is
increasingly clear that Mossadeq can counter opposition to a
settlement only by obtaining a large amount of money immediately.
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7. Egypt may join MEDO if British leave Canal zone:
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Egypt may join MEDO as a quid pro quo
for British evacuation of the Canal Zone.
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No progress is possible, the Ambassador
believes, unless Great Britain announces its intention to leave the
Canal base, actually begins to evacuate, and agrees to a final
withdrawal of British troops, other than technicians, at the same
time that Egypt joins MEDO.
because of pressure from extremist elements within the army the
general must produce results by next February.
Comment: Previously Egyptian officers
had indicated a willingness to make a secret agreement on MEDO
in return for receiving American artns.
8. Britain considers supplying jets to Egypt:
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Great Britain is expected within a few 3.3(h)(2)
days to ask French and American approval
for furnishing at least some of the jet
aircraft contracted for by Egypt. The US'
Embassy believes that the Foreign Office hopes to find some means
Of overcoming anticipated French objectipns before formally pre-
senting this proposal to the three-power committee on arms for
the Near East.
Comment: In late August Britain made
available to Egypt trainers and spare parts, but has until now
declined to fill these Egyptian orders on the pretext of a 1950
embargo on high-priority items to other than NATO and Commonwealth
countries.
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In late September, however, the Churchill
government, over French opposition, offered 14 jets each to Iraq,
Syria, Lebanon, and Israel. The American Ambassador in Cairo states
that the Egyptians are aware of this, and that the British Am-
bassador has advised his Foreign Office that serious consequences
might follow unless Britain changed its position.
WESTERN EUROPE
9. American plane outside Berlin corridor when fired upon:
American officials in Germany report
that the United States Air Force
ambulance plane fired on by one of
the two harassing Soviet MIG-15's on
8 October was 10 to 25 miles outside
the Berlin air corridor and having
radio trouble at the time.
10. French reject American advice on military budget:
In reporting the French Government's
"heated" rejection of his oral statement
on prospective American aid to France
in fiscal year 1953, Ambassador Dunn
expressed his belief that "most serious strains" are developing
in French-American relations.
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The French consider that the American
statement threatens to infringe on their sovereignty. They object
principally to the implied conditions of American aid, namely, that
the French military budget for calendar year 1953 should be
appreciably larger than that for 1952, and that the government should
follow American suggestions in spending the franc counterpart of the
dollar aid received.
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Comment: This cabinet position reflects
the aggressively nationalistic line taken by Pinay on 7 October to
Postpone an immediate foreign policy debate in the National Assembly
aimed at forcing the resignation of Foreign Minister Schuman, who
is under attack for being too "soft" toward American policies.
Although the French Government is expected
to propose a three-percent increase in the military budget over
1952, the means of financing this increase has not yet been found.
Even this anticipated budget appears insufficient to cover either the
current rate of French military production beyond December 1952 or
commitments in Indochintt.
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