CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/09/30

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 05973629
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: June 6, 2019
• Document Release Date: June 27, 2019
• Publication Date: September 30, 1952

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30 September 1952
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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
Office of Current Intelligence
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DOCUMENT NO 6/
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
o DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE- 94171
AUTH: Hf 70-2
DATE/ REVIEWER:
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SECURITY INFORMATION
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SUMMARY
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1. Possibility of split in Japanese Liberal Party increased (page 3).
2. Comment on Mopgolian Premier's visit to- Peiping (page 3).
AUSTRALIA - NEW ZEALAND
3. Australian Government concerned at British agitation over ANZUS
(page 4).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
4. Iranian General Staff postpones order to break up Imperial Guards
(page 4).
5. Tudeh reportedly agrees to support Kashani for Prime Minister
(page 5).
6. Comment on Wafd defiance of Egyptian military regime (page 5).
7. Montgomery criticizes Turkish defense planning (page 6).
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1. Possibility of split in Japanese Liberal Party increased:
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Ambassador Murphy believes that with the 3.3(h)(2)
summary expulsion from the Liberal Party on
29 September of two top pro-Hatoyama leaders,
the intraparty schism has reached a point
wnere a compromise is no longer possible. The Hatoyama faction
interprets the action as tantamount to a "declaration of war" between
the two rival groups.
Murphy reports that the action was taken by
the pro-Yoshida election committee on grounds that the two men were
creating the impression that the Liberal Party would split after the
election. Hatoyama was said to be "shaking with rage" over the incident
Comment: The struggle for power between
Prime Minister Yoshida and Ichiro Hatoyama, the Liberal Party's
founder, has already seriously damaged the party's prospects for
maintaining its majority in the lower house in the 1 October elections.
An open post-election split, which now seems
indicated, would probably lead to the establishment of a conservative
coalition government and a period of political instability, but with little
change in foreign policy.
Comment on Mongolian Premier's visit to Peiping:
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The arrival in Peiping on 28 September of the
Mongolian Premier, who had led a delegation to Moscow during the
Sino-Soviet talks, suggests that Outer Mongolia is negotiating agree-
ments with Communist China as well as with the Soviet Union,
Outer Mongolia has no known treaty with
the Peiping regime. The Premier's visit has been highlighted by an
announcement that Sin 0-Mongolian friendship -- specifically economic,
political and cultural cooperation -- will be officially celebrated in
Mongoll.a. from 1 to 10 October,
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The USSR has several bilateral agreements
with Outer Mongolia, but the continued presence in Moscow of the
Mongolian defense minister and Chinese military leaders suggests
discussion of a tripartite military pact
AUSTRALIA - NEW ZEALAND
3. Australian Government concerned at British agitation over ANZUS:
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Minister of External Affairs Casey has 3.3(h)(2)
sent a personal message to Foreign Secretary
Eden expressing Australia's concern over
the "spate" of London news articles charging
the United States with sole responsibility for Britain's nonrepresen-
tation on the ANZUS council. Casey asserted that these charges are
being echoed in Australia and that his government could not allow
the United States alone to bear the brunt of these attacks.
He hoped that London would reconsider its
desire for participation and perhaps issue a public statement to "damp
down" the agitation,,
Comment: While prior to the ANZUS
conference in Honolulu New Zealand was willing to admit a British
observer, Australia has been opposed to British participation from
the beginning.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
4. Iranian General Staff postpones order to break up Imperial Guards:
The Iranian General Staff reportedly has
postponed Issuing the order which would
have broken up the First Infantry Division
into five independent brigades,
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Comment: Mossadeq dismissed the division
commander, General Ariana, and-dedided to order the division broken
up after receiving word of Ariana's involvement in plans for a military
coup.
5. Tudeh reportedly agrees to support Kashani for Prime Minister:
The Tudeh promised Mullah Kashani on 27
September that it would support him fully in
his effort to unseat Mossadeq by parliamentary
means, If
Kashani becomes Prime Minister, he will expel the American iArmy
missions, close the American consulates, and restrict American
activitieslat least in northern Iran.
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Kashani had strongly defended the Tudeh as a loyal Moslem
organization. Kashani maintained that he would not be happy until Iran
and other Moslem countries in the Middle East were free of Westerners.
He added that he could obtain the aid of 30,000,000 Moslems in the Soviet
Union.
Comment: The strong statement on Tudeh
collaboration is in line with Kasni's well-known attitude toward the
Communists, and it underscores his basically hostile attitude toward
the West. There is no evidence that he could exert any significant
influence on the Moslems inside the Soviet Union.
6. Comment on Wafd defiance of Egyptian military regime:
The Wafd's refusal to submit to regulation.
is General Nagib's first major test of power. The army's control
of civil affairs and its success in imprisoning top Wafdist leaders
indicate that it will be the victor. The Wafd faces formal dissolution
if it fails to reconsider its decision by the deadline date of 6 October.
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A Wafdist statement that the party would
"continue its activities" offers the prospect of subsequent underground
operations. Wafdist hopes for the future are based on the fact that it
has been Egypt's major party since World War I, that it has come to
power six times, and that it is the only party with extensive political
ties throughout the country.
General Nagib's immediate tactics appear
to be aimed at alienating the public from the Wafd's corrupt and aged
leadership. Nagib's success or failure in rallying nationalist sentiment
around the army, or around an army-sponsored party, will determine
the fate of the government.
7. Montgomery criticizes Turkish defense planning:
Field Marshal Montgomery, who observed
the recent Turkish army maneuvers, sharply
criticized Turkey's tactical concept for the
defense of eastern Turkey and Thrace. He
told Ambassador McGhee that he was dissatisfied with the slow progress
made in planning the defense of Thrace, and said that the Turkish forces
there are inadequate. The Marshal stated that because the Turks had
not fought in the last war, they knew little about modern tactics.
In response to Montgomery's query concerning
the American military mission's responsibilities, he was informed
that they were limited to training and technical matters. The Marshal
replied that they should include tactics and agreed that in the future
some NATO help on these problems might be possible.
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