CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/09/21

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 05973622
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: June 6, 2019
• Document Release Date: June 27, 2019
• Publication Date: September 21, 1952

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TOP SECRET n
SECURI NFORMATION
21 September 1952
US OFFICIALS ONLY
uopy O.
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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLA
O DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
AUTH: HR 70-2
Office of Current Intelligence DATE)
A
REVIEWER: 3.5(c)
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
SOVIET UNION
1. Possible evidence of Soviet production of heavier fighter aircraft
(page 3).
FAR EAST
2. japanese Foreign Office official discusses future Japanese-Soviet
relations (page 3).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. Philippine Communists reportedly trying to create false sense of
security (page 4).
SOUTH ASIA
4. India's Vice President to pave way for five-power peace conference
(page 5).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. Iraq seeks establishment of new terminus in Lebanon for Haifa-
Kirkuk pipeline (page 5).
6.
WESTERN EUROPE
7. East German Alert Police believed receiving Soviet artillery
and tanks (page 7).
8. German Socialists reportedly will moderate opposition to Bonn
and Paris treaties (page 8).
9. Alliance between Christian Democrats and Monarchists in Italy
less likely (page 8).
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SOVIET UNION
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I. Possible evidence of Soviet production of heavier fighter aircraft:
Comment: If these figures can be relied
on as aircraft design gross-Veint, the USSR appears to be putting
into production a new type of fighter aircraft at least 4,000 pounds
heavier than the MIG-15.
FAR EAST
2. Japanese Foreign Office official discusses future Japanese-
Soviet relations:
3.3(h)(2)
The chief of the Soviet Section of the 3.3(h)(2)
Japanese Foreign Office believes that
the Sino-Soviet talks may lead to?. Soviet
offer of a nonaggression pact and a
favorable trade agreement in return for abrogation of the US-Japan
Security treaty. He stated, however, that this would be unacceptable
in view of Soviet violation of the wartime nonaggression treaty.
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The official also stressed Japan's deter-
mination not to accept a treaty which offered less than the San
Francisco Treaty, including the right to rearmament. He doubted
that the Russians would ever agree to return any territory to Japan.
Comment: Recent Soviet attitudes suggest
that any "package" proposal for a treaty with Japan would call for
repudiation of US basesand elimination of export controls to
Communist mation�,, if not -abrpgation ,of the San Francisco Treaty.
Yoshida's public statements also indicate
that Japan would demand a high price for any treaty with the Soviet
Union,
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. Philippine Communists reportedly trying to create false sense of
security:
The Philippine Communist Party is
reported to have ordered Huk units
to refrain from raiding and to avoid
encounters with government troops. By
creating a false sense of security, it hopes to bring about the
withdrawal of security forces from crucial areas and to cause
reductions in the armed forces budget.
The American Embassy in Manila observes
that although the Huks have not been wiped out anct are still
capable of effective activity, some Philippine officials are
beginning to believe their own propaganda claims that the Huk
movement has been broken.
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SOUTH ASIA
4. India's Vice President to pave way for five-power peace conference:
3.3(h)(2)
Dr. Radhakrishnan, Indian Vice President
and former Ambassador to Moscow, will
attempt during his forthcoming trip to
Western Europe to lay the groundwork for a meeting of the Big 3.3(h)(2)
Five powers.
Prime
Minister Nehru is continually seeking opportunities to invite the
Big Five to a meeting in order to discus A world-wide military
and political questions.
Comment: Since the. All-India Congress
Committee on 14 September passed a resolution calling for the
Big Five to settle East-West differences and to start world dis-
armament, Radhakrishnan's previously publicized trip to Europe
may actually have the-purpose ascribed to it above.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. Iraq seeks establishment of new terminus in Lebanon for Haifa-
Kirkuk pipeline:
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6.
Comment: A major difficulty facing
the oil company in establishing a new terminus in Lebanon is
the almost certain opposition such a move would arouse in
Israel. Iraq has consistently refused to reopen the pipeline
to Haifa, but the Israeli Government still hopes that it will
eventually reach an agreement to obtain Iraqi crude oil. This
would permit the operation of the Haifa refinery on a full-time
basis and provide Israel with sufficient supplies for its internal
needs.
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WESTERN EUROPE
7. East German Alert Police believed receiving Soviet artillery
and tanks:
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US Army Headquarters in Germany believes
that a "substantial proportion" of the
approximately 2,200 pieces of Soviet 3.3(h)(2)
artillery shipped into East Germany
during the first eight months of 1952
have been issued to East German Alert Mice units. About
30 percent of the total shipments were probably antitank guns,
half 'antiaircraft- guns and the remainder mortars and howitzers.
Comment: The above estimates of
Soviet shipments of heavy weapons into East Germany have not
been confirmed.
Although the Alert Police has been
extensively equipped with Soviet heavy weapons and recent
recruitment has increased its estimated strength from 52,000
to 821000; the combat effectiveness of the Alert Police will
remain low until the recruits have received additional training.
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8. German Socialists reportedly will moderate opposition to Bonn
and Paris treaties:
The West German Social Democratic
Party,
will unofficially moderate its opposition
to the Bonn and Paris treaties, while
1 ining the Schumacher line,
the party will probably accept ratification of the treaties as
binding, but later might try to secure revision of the details.
Local American observers indicate
that there will be no clear-cut party policy until public reaction
on various lines has been tested.
_ Comment: The West German "Defense
Minister" has asserted that the Social Democrats are still using
effective tactics in the Bundestag committee to delay progress on
the Bonn and Paris treaties. He has warned that the whole Bonn
ratification process might extend into 1953 if Chancellor Adenauer
does not apply more pressure on his coalition.
9. Alliance between Christian Democrats and Monarchists in Italy
less likely:
An alliance between the Monarchists
and the Christian Democrats before
the 1953 elections is unlikely, \
that the move is opposed by Prime
Minister.De Gasperi and the center and left wings of the Christian
Democratic Party. However, such a proposal will continue to be
pushed by the Christian Democratic right wing, headed by
Catholic Action leader Luigi Gedda.
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Such an alliance before the elections
would lead to a government crisis resulting in the resignation
of De Gasperi. Probably with this factor in mind, the Pope is
not supporting either group until there is further clarification
of political developments.
Comment: Although the political
alignments for the next national elections are not yet clear,
it appears thus far that De Gasperi is balancing the divergent
forces in his party successfully.
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