CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/08/31

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 05973605
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: June 6, 2019
• Document Release Date: June 27, 2019
• Publication Date: August 31, 1952

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31 August 1952
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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. France anxious to avoid provocation of USSR in Baltic maneuvers
(page 3).
SOVIET UNION
2. Soviet 10th Air Army using wing tanks (page 3).
FAR EAST
3. Portugal maintains need for continuing trade between Macao and
China (page 4).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
4. Mossadeq considering 80 percent reduction in armed forces (page 5).
5, Greek Chief of Staff may recommend 15 percent reduction of armed
forces (page 5).
EASTERN EUROPE
6. Yugoslav official predicts Hoxha ouster (page 6).
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GENERAL
1. France anxious to avoid provocation of USSR in Baltic maneuvers:
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The French Government has refused to comply
with a Danish request for a warning to the
USSR against any aggression which might grow
out of NATO's use of Bornholm Island in thp
coming Baltic naval maneuvers. \
Comment: France will have no military forces
in the Baltic maneuvers, but the desire to avoid provocation of the USSR
influenced the French Government to back a British recommendation to
limit their scope.
SOVIET UNION
2. Soviet 10th Air Army using wing tanks:
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the use of drop wing
tanks in training exercises by jet fighters of
the Soviet 10th Air Army in the Far East
military district. Although enemy use of
drop tanks has been reported in the Korean air war, this is the first
evidence of their use by 10th Air Army 3.3(h)(2)
jet fighters.
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Comment: Two 70-gallon external fuel tanks
would increase the radius of the MIG-15 to an estimated 315 nautical
miles.
The recent jet-fighter interception of US re-
connaissance aircraft over the Sea of Japan occurred at such a distance
from known Soviet bases that it had been assumed that wing tanks must
have been used.
The use in training of drop tanks, which are
usually scarce, implies that there is an adequate local supply.
3.3(h)(2)
FAR EAST
3. Portugal maintains need for continuing trade between Macao and China:
Comment: There is no evidence that the July
clashes were deliberately inspired by Communist authorities in retalia-
tion for restrictions on Macao's trade with China. The incidents made
the Portuguese even more wary of provoking China, however, and stiff-
ened their opposition to the proposed tightening of controls on strategic
exports from Macao.
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NEAR EAST - AFRICA
4. Mossadeq considering 80 percent reduction in armed forces:
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Prime Minister Mossadeq, in a recent con-
versation with Ambassador Henderson, stated
that he was considering an 80 percent reduction
in Lran's armed forces. Henderson believes
that this is not an idle threat, and that if drastic
economies were necessary, Mossadeq would prefer to cut the armed
forces rather than other government agencies.
Comment: Mossadeq has repeatedly said that
he might cut the size of the armed forces, and National Front extremists
in parliament have demanded a radical reduction. The Prime Minister
appears to realize the need to maintain the army as an effective force,
however, and there is no indication that he will take such drastic action.
3.3(h)(2)
5, Greek Chief of Staff may recommend 15 percent reduction of armed forces:
The chief of the Greek General Staff told Ambas-
sador Peurifoy and Admiral Carney on 28 August
that the armed forces could be reduced to 165,000
men without endangering Greece's security. He
explained that the government could not legally reduce its armed forces
until he had delivered his technical report, which would take at least 30 da,ys.
Admiral Carney warned that if Greece's armed
strength fell below the point necessary to defend the country, he would
be forced, as NATO commander, to make the fact public.
Comment: Greek officials have been insisting
that the country's armed forces, now numbering approximately 193,000
strong, must be reduced sharply because the United States has decreased
its aid. Greece has not yet announced the forces it will assign to NATO.
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EASTERN EUROPE
6. Yugoslav official predicts Hoxha ouster:
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The Yugoslav Government believes that Premier
Hoxha may be dismissed soon and replaced by
the Minister of Interior Shehu, according to
a Foreign Ministry official. He doubted that
anian regime would be overthrown, and stated that the Yugoslav
Government would continue to avoid actions which might provoke direct
Soviet intervention.
Comment: This is the first comment by a
responsible Belgrade official since Yugoslav propaganda began in early
August to assert that Albanian anti-Cominform resistance was increas-
ing and that Hoxha would be purged by his party. Yugoslav-sponsored
subversive activity against the regime has increased, however, and
there is evidence that Tito now feels he can take stronger covert action
in Albania without provoking Soviet intervention.
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