CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/08/02

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 05973579
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: June 6, 2019
• Document Release Date: June 27, 2019
• Publication Date: August 2, 1952

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TOP SECRET �
Office of Current Intelligence
SECUBY INFORMATION
2 August 1952
Copy No. 53
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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DOCUMENT NO. /
NO CHANGE IN CLASS. 0
0 DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE-
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE: REVIEWER: 3.5(c)
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
TOPS
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SECURI2WORMATION
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. USSR -Indonesian trade discussions reportedly being conducted in
Bangkok (page 3).
SOVIET UNION
2. Continued air activity in the Chukotsk region (page 3).
FAR EAST
3. Portugal willing to bargain with Peiping on Macao (page 4).
4. Chinese-trained Burmese Communists reportedly enter Burma
(page 4).
5. Burmese Defense Minister renews offer to repatriate Chinese
Nationalists (page 5).
6. Indonesian President and Defense Minister in conflict over Com-
munists in army (page 5).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
7. Iranian Army attempts to tighten security on Soviet border (page 6).
8. King Talal of Jordan plans to abdicate (page 6).
9. Defection of Liberal deputy eliminates Greek Government majority
(page 7).
10. Provisional Regency Council reportedly formed in Egypt (page 8).
WESTERN EUROPE
11. East German Alert Police now reported to number 82,000 (page 8).
12. Comment on the Berlin situation (page 9).
NOTE:
* * * *
Comments in this publication
represent the immediate views of the
Office of Current Intelligence.
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GENERAL
1. USSR-Indonesian trade discussions reportedly being conducted in Bangkok:
The American Charge in Thailand has been 3.3(h)(2)
reliably informed of trade discussions be-
tween Soviet Embassy officials and the Indo-
nesian Minister and his commercial staff.
The USSR has reportedly offered capital goods in exchange for rubber,
tin, and coconut oil. Trucks and passenger cars are also allegedly
being sent to Indonesia for demonstration purposes. Apparently no
agreement has yet been signed.
Comment: 3.3(h)(2)
Foreign Minister Mukarto will shortly recommend to high Indo-
nesian officials that trade and diplomatic relations with the Soviet
bloc be expanded to counterbalance American influence in Indonesia.
SOVIET UNION
2. Continued air activity in the Chukotsk region:
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continued transport activity in the
Chukotsk area by aircraft possibly subordinate
to the Third Long Range Air Army. Between
2 and 15 Ally, approximately 19 aircraft made
a eas ig s, ajor terminal points were again Markovo and
Tanyurer, although some flights were made to five other points, in-
cluding Anadyr.
Comment: Airlift operations into the lower
Chukotsk region took place during April. The present transport activ-
ity into the upper Chukotsk area began on 12 Stine,
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FAR EAST
3. Portugal willing to bargain with Peiping on Macao:
The American Embassy in Lisbon reports
that Foreign Ministry officials fear that
Chinese attacks on Macao this week have
been directed from Peiping, and are di-
rectly related to restrictions on the Macao-China trade. A Foreign
Ministry spokesman intimated that Portugal would be "quite willing"
to make trade concessions in order to retain Macao. He asked for
"understanding" on the part of the United States.
Meanwhile, the Lisbon government has in-
structed Macao authorities to avoid incidents, but to fight back when
attacked.
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Comment: The Portuguese Government has
firmly resisted American pressure to halt all strategic exports to
China because of the "very serious consequences" this would have for
Macao. Accordingly, it has applied for presidential exception from
the provisions of the Battle Act for a select number of strategic goods.
4. Chinese-trained Burmese Communists reportedly enter Burma:
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The American Army Attarhp in Bangkok has
been told that 1,000 3.3(h)(2)
Burmese Communist troops, part of a force
of three regiments training in China, recent-
ly entered northern Burma. Their exact
location and mission are unknown.
Comment: on 3.3(h)(2)
28 June three Burmese Communist regiments, plus 1,000 Chinese
Communist troops, moved from Yunnan Province into northern Burma.
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These reports are unconfirmed. A military
training program for unknown numbers of Burmese Communists and
Kachins has been under way in China for some time.
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5. Burmese Defense Minister renews offer to repatriate Chinese Nationalists:
A prominent anti-Communist Chinese has in-
formed the American Embassy in Rangoon that
Burmese Defense Minister Ba Swe is renew-
ing his offer to Taipei to repatriate Chinese
Nationalist troops through Rangoon, and intends to begin military opera-
tions against the Nationalists in the fall unless they are evacuated.
The Embassy comments that Ba Swe is ap-
parently sincere, but that his timetable appears to be optimistic and
the repatriation of such a large number of troops who have no effective
leadership seems impractical. Nevertheless, the Embassy feels that
a solution is urgent because an open conflict between Burmese forces
and the Nationalists would bring serious repercussions for local anti-
Communist Chinese.
Comment: Burmese Commander in Chief
Ne Win recently announced that he was planning an all-out campaign
against the Nationalists, who number 7,000 to 10,000. A concentrated
Burmese attack on the Nationalists would greatly benefit the Commu-
nist and Karen insurgents.
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6, Indonesian President and Defense Minister in conflict over Communists
in army:
official in the Indo-
nesian .horeign Office has told Ambassador
Cochran that numerous Communists have in-
filtrated the army, but that the Defense Mini-
ster, the Sultan of Jogjakarta, was resisting President Sukarno's
efforts to purge them. the "Cabinet situation
was tense;' and that the Defense Minister might resign and cause the
government's fall.
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Comment: Considerable information is avail-
able on the general disagreement between the Defense Minister and
President Sukarno. The failure to improve internal security and the
deterioration of conditions in West Sava have increased sentiment for
an authoritarian government led by Sukarno.
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
7. Iranian Army attempts to tighten security on Soviet border:
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/the increasing number of persons cross-
ing into the Soviet Union, and ordered that
Order garrisons watch all suspicious elements.
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Comment: concern over
the border areas has been stimulated by the general decline of public
order during the year and a half of Mossadecf s rule.
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8. King Talal of Jordan plans to abdicate:
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King Talal intends to abdicate and to live
in Mecca. The King has no intention of under-
going medical treatment, and plans to divorce his wife.
The Premier expressed approval of the pro-
posal, which would permit the present Regency Council to continue until
Prince Hussein reaches his majority next May.
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Comment:
audi Arabian interest in the Jordanian Premier's efforts to
stabilize the unsettled political situation caused by Talal's illness. In
view of the cordial reception given Talal a few months ago by the
Saudi Arabian Government, permission for him to reside in Mecca
may be expected.
. Defection of Liberal deputy eliminates Greek Government majority:
The parliamentary majority of the Liberal-
EPEK coalition disappeared on 30 July with
the resignation from the party of a Liberal
deputy from north-central Greece. The
Liberal-EPEK coalition now controls 129 seats, exactly half of the
membership of parliament.
Former Prime Minister and Greek Rally
supporter Papandreou, who reportedly engineered the defection, told
the US Embassy that another deputy would leave the Liberal Party
within a few days. In Papandreou's opinion, this will force the King
to dissolve parliament or compel the government to rely on the eight
Communist-controlled EDA deputies in order to remain in office.
Comment: Unable to vote the government
out of office, the opposition Greek Rally is trying to bring about its
fall through defections.
The King is strongly opposed to Marshal
Papagos, the probable victor in new elections, and may prefer to rely
on the EDA deputies rather than dissolve parliament
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10, Provisional Regency Council reportedly formed in Egypt:
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a compro-
mise agreement has been reached with
General Nagib and "his clique" on the com-
position of a Provisional Regency Council.
Members of the Council will be Prince Abdul
Moneim of the royal family, former Minister
of Education Barrahat, and Colonel Mohanna.
According to the Prime Minister, the Council
of State will announce that "current conditions" necessitate suspension
of the Constitution. In this way, Maher hopes to avoid convening
parliament and to rule Egypt through the Provisional Regency Council
without elections.
The Foreign Office in London has expressed
particular satisfaction that Ali Maher has no immediate intention of
convoking the Wald-controlled parliament, which was dissolved last
March by former Premier Hilali,
Comment: The inclusion of the unknown
Colonel Mohanna on the Provisional Regency Council does not support
General Nagib's public statements that the Egyptian Army will not in-
terfere in civil affairs.
WESTERN EUROPE
11. East German Alert Police now reported to number 82,000:
American military authorities in Germany
estimate that continued recruiting has raised
the strength of the East German paramilitary
Alert Police from 70,000 on 1 June to at least
y 30 y. Reportedly, individuals are now being recruited
between the ages of 16 and 30, the basic training period has been
extended from four to six weeks, and the recruiting campaign has
procured about 34,000 men since 1 April. Recruiting is expected to
continue at the same rate.
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While each of the 24 Alert Police units con-
sists now of about 3,000 officers and men, the Police must undergo
extensive training before it attains any significant offensive capability.
12. Comment on the Berlin situation:
The recent mass flight of refugees into West
Berlin was touched off by widespread rumors that the Berlin sector
crossing points would be closed on 1 August and by fear of induction
Into the East German labor and military organizations. Refugees now
average 1,000 a day, five times the daily average of last spring.
Communist sensitivity to this exodus has been
demonstrated by the modification of the propaganda slogans for the
rally of Communist youth in East Berlin on 3 August. When the rally
was first announced on 19 July, the appeals for youth participation
emphasized the "overthrow the Reuter government" theme. This
theme was altered on 31 July to "eliminate" the Berlin refugee settle-
ments.
The West Berlin police and the 12,000 Allied
troops in the city should be able to handle any incursions from East
Berlin. American officials in Frankfurt now believe that the east and
west sectors of the city will be completely separated in the near future.
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