NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 05301361
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 24
• Document Creation Date: February 27, 2023
• Document Release Date: February 24, 2023
• Case Number: F-2014-00485
• Publication Date: June 5, 1990

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�Am
CPAS NID 90-130JV
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5 Tune 1990
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Contents
Liberia: Government Increasingly Crippled
1
South Africa: Mandela Casting a Wide Net
2
Iran: Leaders Mark Khomeini's Death With Pragmatic Tone 3
Notes USSR: Gorbachev and Yel'tsin Moving Closer
4
: New Law Eases Reins on Enterprises
4
Yugoslavia: Slovenia Initiates Drive for Autonomy
China: Trying To Improve Economic Reform Image
Taiwan: Budget Planners Yield to Public's Demands
5
7
In Brief
"r0P-Sestet_
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Military Situation, Situation, 4 June 1990
MONROVIA
SOUR
Popo
Airport
Roberts
International
Airfield
Bodoni
North Atlantic
Ocean
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101'.."3"-"Seeret�
Lib ria
/* US
Embessy
Barclay
Training
Cantar ,
Executles�
Mansion'
Atlantic Ocean
1 1.0�IM
I I.
Grand Jide
County
St. cm ISprigge- ,
poses", 2sr. *cazogiur
Payne .1' -
Lutheran Church ty.poe-
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LIBERIA: Government Increasingly Crippled
The army's incompetence and President Doe's unwillingness to step
down in favor of an interim government are leaving the regime
vulnerable to the next rebel push.
Liberian army ineptitude has caused confusion about the status of
Roberts International Airfield.
the rebels have not taken the nearby towns of Owensgrove and
Harbel. An army unit returning from Buchanan was attacked by
another government patrol at Owensgrove. Each thought the other
was a rebel unit and reported the incident, "confirming" a rebel
attack. The army believes it still occupies Owensgrove, and about
35 soldiers remain in the vicinity of the airfield. As a result of the
reported attack, however, international airlines have suspended
service to the airfield,
soldiers are continuing to desert; only about
125 to 150 soldiers are stationed between Monrovia and Roberts
Airfield, of which only 100 remain at Camp Schieffelin about
15 miles from the airfield. The army reportedly rounded up 380 army
stragglers yesterday at Barclay Training Center and plans to send
them to the 1st Battalion at Camp Schieffelin.
Doe reportedly still insists that the military situation is not
irreversible and that he will stay in power until the election in 1991
Meanwhile, large crowds of Krahns have been seen trying to get rides
on taxis and buses heading to Sierra Leone and gathering at Spriggs-
Payne Airport to get flights to Grand Jide.
Comment: Confusion and disorganization in the military underscore
the increasing difficulty the army is likely to have mounting a
credible defense of positions near the capital, particularly if the rebels
launch their promised attack on the airfield. It is doubtful that
anyone in Monrovia will muster the courage to confront Doe directly
about stepping down. Even if someone does Doe is unlikely to be
swayed.
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SOUTH AFRICA: Mandela Casting a Wide Net
Nelson Mandela, the ANC's deputy president, continues to reach out to
other antiapartheid groups, to black municipal and homeland officials,
and to the European Community in an effort to unite the black
opposition and to mobilize further international support.
Mandela is initiating talks with an array of antiapartheid rivals:
� He met last weekend with a senior leader of a top black
exclusivist group to discuss clashes between their
organizations that resulted in four deaths last week.
� He met with a leading township official to explore providing
land for returning ANC exiles.
The ANC confirmed that it will talk soon with its oldest rival,
the Pan-Africanist Congress.
� ANC officials have also made overtures to a recently resigned
senior official of Inkatha, the large Zulu-based political
movement.
Mandela heads for Europe tomorrow to visit France, the UK, West
Germany, Italy, Belgium, Ireland, and Switzerland. Moscow was not
on the itinerary announced this week, but Mandela apparently plans
to visit the USSR before coming to the US later this month.
Comment: ANC leaders are struggling to put an end to the continuing
violence Mandela admits is partially being caused by undisciplined
ANC supporters. Meeting with municipal leaders might help reduce
the longstanding bitterness antiapartheid groups have felt toward black
municipal authorities, who have been condemned and sometimes
assassinated for working within the apartheid system.
Mandela will use his European tour to try to shore up EC support for
sanctions�flagging since the largely favorable reception President
de Klerk enjoyed last month�but he may have more success
appealing for funds to aid the ANC's organizational efforts in South
Africa. The ANC has not announced an end to the armed struggle,
and Mandela probably will ask the USSR�as he probably asked
Libya, Algeria, and Nigeria last month�for more military aid as a
fallback should negotiations falter.
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IRAN: Leaders Mark Khomeini's Death With Pragmatic Tone
Speeches and articles by senior Iranian officials commemorating
yesterday's anniversary of Ayatollah Khomeini's death suggest that
pragmatic economic goals are being given priority over radical political
agendas.
Khomeini's son Ahmad on Saturday called for the country to unite
behind Supreme Leader Khamenei and to support the Rafsanjani
government's policies in order to "implement the Imam's line." In
a speech yesterday, Khamenei emphasized that successful economic
reconstruction is the best way to disarm the US�still labeled Iran's
primary enemy. President Rafsanjani hailed Khomeini's pragmatic
decision to end the war with Iraq and lauded the Ayatollah's foresight
in providing for leadership after his death.
Ali A.kbar Mol...tashem.i...Pur, a prominent radical in the Consultative
Assembly, sounded a harsher note. An Iranian daily quoted him as
arguing that Iran should not focus on its economy at the expense of
"forgetting ... the deprived people of the world" and as calling for
attacks against US interests worldwide.
Comment: Mohtashemi's remarks notwithstanding, the overall tone
of the commentary was much less inflammatory than usual. Ahmad
Khomeini's words have symbolic weight because he is a primary
interpreter of his father's legacy. His remarks are the clearest
indication to date that he is moving away from a hard line and closer
to the positions of Khamenei and Rafsanjani. The "Imam's line" is a
code for those competing to inherit Khomeini's ideological mantle;
Ahmad's words are meant to suggest that Khomeini would have
approved of the economic reconstruction program.
The commentary is an important endorsement for Khamenei and for
Rafsanjani's efforts to focus government policy on rebuilding Iran's
devastated economy; Iran will need Western financing to succeed.
Khamenei's speech suggests that, although most senior Iranian
leaders remain committed to promoting militant Islam, they consider
domestic reconstruction their highest priority.
Mohtashemi's remarks are a reminder that the hardliners will not be
silenced. At present, however, their concerns are acknowledged, but
they are not considered part of the mainstream. The radicals probably
will try to undermine pragmatic policies by complaining that
ecDnomic programs do not help the poor and perhaps by organizing
street rallies around controversial policies or against pro-Rafsaniani
officials
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USSR: Gorbachev Gorbachev and Yel'tsin Moving Closer
With growing incentives to work together, President Gorbachev and
Russian Republic Chairman Yel'tsin have adopted conciliatory tacks.
Gorbachev's statement on Sunday crediting Yel'tsin for moving back
toward the center is his most positive since they split in 1987, and
Yel'tsin continues to press for an early meeting with Gorbachev. The
divided Russian Republic legislature yesterday again failed to accept
a new set of candidates for republic deputy chairmanships. This
group was proposed by Yel'tsin; previous groups had been proposed
by committeel
Comment: Any modus vivendi between the two men is likely
to be shaky. Gorbachev probably hopes the legislature's continued
fractiousness will force Yel'tsin to moderate his positions further.
If he refuses to meet Yel'tsin soon after he returns from the US.
however, their personal conflict probably would boil over again,
and Gorbachev's public standing might suffer a further setback.
USSR: New Law Eases Reins on Enterprises
The new law on enterprises, approved yesterday by the Supreme
Soviet, is meant to increase competition and reinforce the notion�
still novel in the USSR�that profit, rather than ministerial
command, should guide economic decision making. The law
increases the autonomy of state enterprises by removing some
restrictions on how they can set prices and use their profits and by
allowing them to establish independent associations not subject to
ministerial control. It also purports to give enterprises run by
organizations of leaseholders, cooperatives and shareholders ecmal
status with state-run enterprises.
Comment: Despite this expansion of rights, key controls over
enterprise behavior remain in Moscow's hands. Centrally mandated
output targets, although set to be reduced, will remain in force for at
least another year, and firms operating under state orders will still
have first priority in the allocation of scarce resources. A separate law
now under legislative review would restore a strong state role in the
selection of directors of state enterprises, rescinding a 1987 provision
that called for their election by the workers.
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YUGOSLAVIA: Slovenia Initiates Drive for Autonomy
The new government in the Republic of Slovenia is moving quickly
to challenge Belgrade on two key matters: it is calling for military
conscripts to serve only in their home republic, and it has announced
further unilateral reductions in tax payments to the federal
government. Slovenia's new Prime Minister, Lojze Peterle, recently
said the federation's system of funding economic development of the
poorer regions is outdated and could bankrupt Slovenia, according to
press reports.
Comment: The military force is one of the few remaining Pan-
Yugoslav institutions, and military leaders will oppose the Slovene
proposal as an attempt to eviscerate it. The termination of tax
payments to the federation is also a serious challenge to Belgrade's
authority. The federal Presidency and cabinet nevertheless may have
to accept Slovene demands rather than risk splitting the armed forces.
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CHINA: Trying Trying To Improve Economic Reform Image
Chinese press reports are showcasing new economic measures,
evidently trying to demonstrate renewed reform momentum. Beijing
reportedly gave the go-ahead over the weekend to open the country's
first futures market�for wheat�and announced plans to establish
others for rice, corn, and pork. China will open its first full-fledged
stock market in the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone later this year.
Chinese officials told an international symposium last week China
will soon develop experimental securities exchanges to trade
government bonds in Shanghai and Shenzhen and expand securities
trading elsewhere.
Comment: The recent announcements probably are the start of a
media offensive to coffer) Beijing's hardline image and convince the
world that China is stable. Beijing hopes to induce full-scale lending
by the World Bank and to restore other aid. Hardline leaders also
apparently want to improve their personal images
Premier Li Peng is trying to portray himself as the
champion of economic reform; he publicly endorsed the creation of a
new foreign investment zone in Shanghai. The new measures, under
discussion for several years, will have little economic impact without
key market reforms, such as enterprise bankruptcy and price
decontrols; these have been stalled since late 1988.
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TAIWAN: Budget Budget Planners Yield to Public's Demands
For the fiscal year beginning in July, Taiwan's legislature last week
approved a 20-percent increase in spending that will boost domestic
demand and stimulate the economy.
industrial output fell at about a 1-percent annual
rate in March, the third such drop in four months. The budget will
sharply increase spending on infrastructure and other economic
development projects and on social welfare. The defense share will
decrease slightly, although the absolute amount spent on the military
will increase 18 percent over FY 1990 and will remain the largest
component of the budget. The planned deficit for the year, about
4 percent of GNP, will be the biggest in the island's history.
Comment: In addition to giving the economy a boost, the government
evidently hopes spending will satisfy demands for improvements in
housing, roads, and pollution and crime control by a populace that is
playing an increasingly important role in the political process. The
growth in the defense budget probably is needed for ongoing weapons
programs, such as the Indigenous Defense Fighter, Perry-class
frigates, and advanced tactical missiles. The deficit reportedly will
be financed partly from the sale of public bonds, which should help
prevent the deficit from fueling inflation�about 5 percent last year,
the highest level since 1981.
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TAIWAN: Reacting Reacting to Trade Deficit With Japan
The second sentence in the Note in the 4 June Daily should read:
"Taiwan ran a $7 billion trade deficit with Japan last year; the deficit
grew at a 22-percent annual rate through April to reach $2.5 billion so
far this year, almost offsetting Taiwan's trade surplus with the US for
the first time."
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In Brief
Brief
USSR
� Ukrainian party chief Ivashko elected chairman of republic's
Supreme Soviet yesterday... 110 Rukh-backed deputies walked
out, protesting his holding top party, government posts ... s lit in
legislature will force him to compromise with nationalists.
� Soviet party cadres secretary Georgiy Razumovskiy yesterday
failed in first election bid for July party congress ... two other
senior officials won only by running in rural districts.,. shows
grassroots dissatisfied with national party leadership.
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� Reelection of former Polish Communist party Politburo member
Alfred Miodowicz to lead Communist union presages more attacks
on Warsaw's economic policies. .. likely to frustrate union's
efforts to gain legitimacy soon.
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