NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 05301349
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 25
• Document Creation Date: February 27, 2023
• Document Release Date: February 24, 2023
• Case Number: F-2014-00485
• Publication Date: July 9, 1990

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Contents
USSR: Gorbachev Allies Try To Limit Damage at Congress
Liberia: Taylor Still Biding His Time
Albania: Unrest Likely To Continue
Poland: Tentative Mazowiecki-Walesa Truce
Haiti: Transition Under Mounting Stress
Notes Nicaragua: Government, Strikers Near Showdown
OAU: Annual Summit Opens Today in Addis Ababa
Kenya: Hard Line on Political Rights
India: Kashmir Security Measures Increased
In Brief
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USSR: Gorbachev Allies Try To Limit Damage at Congress
Gorbachev and his supporters appear to be trying to limit damage at the
party congress by portraying its traditionalist tone as out of step with the
party rank and file and by possibly laying the groundwork for a new
congress.
On Saturday, the congress subjected Politburo members Ryzhkov,
Yakovlev, Medvedev, Shevardnadze, and Ligachev to an
unprecedented grilling before it voted to stop the process Gorbachev
argued would split the party. Gorbachev avoided scrutiny there, but
he was dressed down at a meeting last week with middle-level party
bureaucrats, where, according to the Soviet press, he was confronted
by officials blaming him for undermining their power and demanding
that he abandon perestroyka and "instill order." izvestiya contrasted
this encounter with the much more favorable reception Gorbachev
received from workplace-level officials on Friday who called for
radicalizing perestroyka. The article also suggested the party's
traditionalist apparatus rigged the delegate elections to reduce the
influence of the more reformist rank and file.
Meanwhile, Gorbachev's supporters appear to be playing down the
significance of the congress. Yakovlev told a group of delegates last
week that the party's fate would be decided "beyond the walls of the
congress." In an interview with Western reporters, Gorbachev aide
Shakhnazarov conceded that concessions to the traditionalists are
inevitable at the congress but said they will not reverse the trend of
democratization in Soviet society. Party secretary Frolov, another
Gorbachev ally, in the name of the congress's ideology working
group, echoed Yel'tsin's proposal to put off ratifying a party program
until a new congress can be convened next year.
Comment: The statements by Gorbachev's allies indicate they have
little hope of turning the congress in their favor. They could try to use
the media's portrayal of the congress as out of touch with the rank
and file and the charges that the traditionalist apparatus manipulated
the delegate selection process to build a case to convene a new
congress. By using such tactics, Gorbachev's supporters probably
hope to mobilize rank-and-file support in their struggle against
traditionalists after the congress. The remarks by Yakovlev and
Shakhnazarov suggest that, even if Gorbachev is able to limit the
congress's damage to the party's credibility, they expect him to rely
on the presidency and the legislative system to push the reform
process.
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Controlled
by army
MONROVIA(
River Bridge
V-� Camp /
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Controlled
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North Atlantic Ocean
10 Kilometers
10 Miles
Military Situation 8 July 1990
Prince Johnson's
forces it
Bong Mines
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LIBERIA: Taylor Still Biding His Time
Rebel leader Charles Taylor and his troops still appear to be dallying on
the perimeters of the capital and are toying with the idea of attending the
peace talks in Sierra Leone this week.
The military situation changed little during the weekend as
skirmishing continued on the outskirts of the capital in the vicinity
of Paynesville and Elwa. The army still held Camp Ramrod, Elwa
junction, the Brewerville checkpoint, and the St. Paul River Bridge
yesterday, Army and rebel forces
remained in close proximity in the Paynesville area. The rebels claim
they have surrounded rival rebel leader Prince Johnson's forces south
of Bong Town. the rebels are planning an
offensive on Elwa and are reinforcing their positions in the area.
Taylor says he plans to take control of the radio station there and to
begin broadcasting his intention to rule Liberia after the war is over.
Monrovia was relatively calm during the past several days, except for
the army's looting food. Soldiers reportedly broke into the warehouse
at the port where the UN stores its rice stocks,
Stores and businesses ignored the government's
directive to open, although a few markets opened for a short period.
Soldiers appeared somewhat better behaved yesterday after a public
broadcast warned t at anyone caught looting or harassing civilians
would be executed.
A rebel spokesman announced yesterday the rebels will send
representatives to take part in the peace talks tomorrow in Sierra
Leone. The insurgents say they are willing to listen to proposals made
by representatives of the Economic Community of West African
States, who are acting as mediators. The rebels have stressed,
however, that they refuse to consider formation of an interim
government without Taylor as leader or any proposal to send an
African peacekeeping force into Liberia
Comment: Taylor probably figures he can afford to play psychological
games with the government for a few more days. He is likely to
become frustrated and move more quickly, however, if he is not able
to take over the Elwa radio station soon and begin broadcasting his
political agenda to Monrovia. Taylor's sudden willingness to send
representatives to the peace talks this week probably reflects his
eagerness not to antagonize the US or his African neighbors, whom he
undoubtedly is counting on to help bolster his image once the war is
Over.
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ALBANIA: Unrest Likely To Continue
The situation in Tirane is still highly unsettled. Officials are sending
mixed signals on the refugee problem, and a government shuffle this
weekend did not add any new faces to the leadership.
Albanian officials took passport applications of refugees in at least
four embassies yesterday. The influx of refugees into foreign
embassies seems to have stopped for now, but 6,000 asylum seekers
are already there�almost 3,000 in the West German Embassy alone.
The food and sanitary situation in the embassies is deteriorating.
Premier Carcani and other leaders have taken a hard line, however,
blaming foreign embassies for the situation and denouncing their
"brutal interference" in Albania's internal affairs. Carcani reiterated
Tirane's refusal to allow Western aircraft to deliver food and
medicine. The area around the embassies was closed off by police
yesterday, preventing more refugees from entering. Unconfirmed
press reports quote Greek sources who claim Albanians illegally
crossing the border into Greece have come under fire from Albanian
border guards.
Tirane announced a major leadership shuffle on Saturday, following a
two-day Communist party Central Committee meeting. Hardline
Minister of Internal Affairs Stefani and Minister of People's Defense
Murra lost their cabinet posts, and Murra and several other aging
party leaders were removed from the Politburo. Stefani, however,
kept his Politburo position and was replaced by Hekuran Isai.
President Alia announced that more economic and political reforms
are in the offing; in particular, private businesses in the service sector
will be allowed to expand.
Comment: The regime appears to be moving toward the eventual
release of most of the current refugees, but concessions probably will
be a catalyst for continuing unrest; they may cause an escalation of
incidents. The regime probably hopes promises of more political and
economic reforms will deter further unrest, but those promises most
likely are not enough to appease a now-restive population, which
appears to want genuine movement toward improved living
conditions and democracy.
The three Politburo members who were retired probably have been
on their way out for some time. Their younger replacements seem to
be comparatively moderate. This and the fact that Stefani managed to
keep his Politburo position indicate hardliners are still a factor to be
reckoned with.
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POLAND: Tentative Mazowiecki-Walesa Truce
Despite some minor tactical gains over the weekend, Prime Minister
Mazowiecki has yet to succeed in his bid to juggle management of
Lech Walesa and the economy at the same time.
In their quickly arranged "summit" on Saturday at a convent near
Warsaw, Mazowiecki and Walesa agreed to continue working
together "for the good of the country and.. . democracy," according
to a terse press release. Simultaneous talks between the government
and representatives of protesting farmers produced no settlement on
a key farmer demand�backed by Walesa�for guaranteed minimum
procurement prices. The government did promise farmers easier
access to credit as well as tax and tariff relief. Warsaw indicates it is
ready for more negotiations, and farmer representatives have scaled
back the nationwide protest strike that was to occur today to a
two-hour round of roadblocks on Wednesday.
Comment: Although Walesa acceded to Mazowiecki's insistence on a
private meeting somewhere other than the Gdansk shipyard�where
Solidarity caucused yesterday�Walesa almost certainly refused to
refrain from criticizing the government on specific issues. Warsaw's
problems with the farmers will not go away until something is done to
improve farm prices. Farmers already believe they are unduly bearing
the burden of the government's reform program, a perception certain
to spread as Warsaw moves ahead on granting hefty wage increases to
urban workers.
Mazowiecki may have bought some short-term breathing space by
impressing on Walesa that political squabbling will only undermine
Warsaw's efforts to gain Western support for a substantial reduction
in Poland's debt obligations. If such support is not forthcoming,
Walesa is likely to resume his attacks on the government's economic
reform program should he decide to redouble his push for the
presidency.
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HAITI: Transition Under Mounting Stress
The recent return of extremists to Haiti threatens to discredit President
Trouillot's already weakened government further and undermine her
fragile electoral strategy.
The arrival of Roger Lafontant�Interior Minister under Jean Claude
Duvalier�and Williams Regala�who held the same post under
General Namphy�has angered politicians and prompted a key labor
leader to call a general strike if the two are not arrested. According to
press reports, Haiti's attorney general ordered police to arrest
Lafontant, although airport authorities refused to detain him.
both intend to seek the presidency, but
Haiti's Electoral Council�which decides who may run�condemned
their presence in the country.
Meanwhile, Trouillot's failure to come to grips with the security issue
and differences over recent political appointments with the State
Council�which Terns with her�are fueling tensions,
he government has made little progress in its
investigation ot the attack late last month on the Council�that killed
one member
Furthermore,
concerns about the safety of election observers have contributed to
UN reluctance to provide assistance.
Comment: In planning their return, Lafontant and Regala almost
certainly calculated that Trouillot would be intimidated by the far
right and unwilling to move against them. Their presence and the
government's failure to make any arrests in the attack on the State
Council probably will embolden other Haitian extremists,
particularly those rightists reportedly responsible. As a result, random
violence is likely to escalate as the former Duvalierists pressure the
Electoral Council to allow them to campaign for the presidency.
Unless Trouillot reacts quickly, the rift with the State Council will
widen further and popular demonstrations are increasingly likely.
Growing criticism could lead Trouillot to resign;
Her departure would be a serious blow to the
democratic transition and probably would delay credible elections
until next year.
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NICARAGUA: Government, Strikers Near Showdown
The weeklong general strike has become a test of wills between the
Sandinistas and the Chamorro administration. The government has
announced that public workers who remain on strike today will be
fired, and it has mobilized police forces to protect those who return to
work. Talks broke off Friday when the Sandinista labor federation,
rejecting President Chamorro's offer of wage hikes and other
concessions, presented a list of 18 demands, including an end to the
government's plan to privatize state enterprises. Members of the
Sandinista National Directorate reportedly are advising strike leaders
and have called for an open-ended work stoppage. Violence continues
to escalate; press reports indicate government supporters killed one
striker and wounded two others on Friday, and a pro-Sandinista mob
attacked a vehicle carrying several government ministers.
Comment: The Sandinistas probably are trying to preserve the bloated
public sector as a haven for their supporters and set the stage for their
celebration on 19 July of their assumption of power in 1979. The
Chamorro government, which has taken a conciliatory stance
toward the Sandinistas, now appears ready for a showdown. If the
Sandinista-led police do not preserve order, however, Chamorro will
have to choose between giving in or calling on the Sandinista army to
suppress the strikers.
OAU: Annual Summit Opens Today in Addis Ababa
Discussion at this year's Organization of African Unity summit
will focus on South Africa, possible diversion of aid from Africa to
Lastern Europe, growing pressure for political liberalization, and
Africa's mounting debt burden, now estimated at $255 billion.
Participants also will discuss a possible African Economic
Community. Although Nelson Mandela is heading the ANC
delegation, press reports indicate fewer than 10 heads of state
from the OAU's 49 member states will attend. Ugandan President
Museveni probably will be named OAU chairman succeeding
Egypt's Mubarak.
Comment: The low turnout apparently results from the domestic
unrest and economic malaise plaguing many members, the uncertain
security situation in Ethiopia, and a general erosion of confidence in
the OAU's effectiveness. African leaders probably hope a firmer
commitment to economic integration will counter Europe's ecnnomic
consolidation as well as attract international assistance. Museveni
will want to improve Uganda's international standing, damaged
during the OAU chairmanship of Idi Amin in the early 1970s. He will
encourage negotiated settlements to regional and domestic conflicts
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KENYA: Hard Line on Political Rights
A security force crackdown on a banned multiparty rally Saturday
illustrates President Moi's tough stance against increasingly
vocal demands for political pluralism and may presage further
confrontations. Although violence was limited by an overwhelming
police show of force, press reports indicate skirmishing between
demonstrators and security forces continued yesterday.
Prominent articles in the government-
controlled Kenya Times accuse the US of sheltering subversives and
meddling in Kenya's affairs, but Moi has not publicly criticized
Washington�although he has played on the theme of external
interference.
Comment: Moi, in rejecting domestic and international pressure for
political liberalization, appears determined to squelch the multiparty
debate by further constricting political and civil rights. Harsh
measures, however, are likely to swell the proreform ranks and
undermine the regime's legitimacy. Moi almost certainly wants to
maintain good relations with the US
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INDIA: Kashmir Security Measures Increased
New Delhi recently strengthened the powers of its military and
security forces to control the unrest in Jammu and Kashmir state;
Governor Saxena endorsed a new special powers ordinance on Friday
that allows the military to use "deadly force" to stop civil disorder
and to conduct searches and arrests without warrants. Indian troops
and security forces enforced an all-day curfew in Srinagar on
Saturday and are not allowing even ambulances to carry patients to
hospitals, according to press reports. Home Affairs Minister Sayeed
and Saxena have announced that Kashmir will be placed under
President's Rule�effectively continuing New Delhi's direct
control�on 19 July.
Comment: These security measures, which probably were prompted
by the substantial increase in attacks against government security
forces last month and by New Delhi's perception that cross-border
infiltrations are increasing, suggest Saxena has temporarily
abandoned his conciliatory approach to dealing with Kashmiri
unrest. The resort to President's Rule the same week as the scheduled
meeting of the Indian and Pakistani foreign secretaries will handicap
attempts to reduce local tensions.
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In Brief
Europe
� Slovenia has rejected demand by Yugoslav Government to annul
sovereignty declaration ... forces Belgrade to determine how to
enforce its demand . .. inaction probably will embolden Slovene
separatists gaining ascendancy in republic's government
Africa
� Somali security forces fired on crowd during speech by President
Siad Friday 13 killed, scores wounded ... may spark arrests,
brutal crackdown similar to what occurred after riots last July
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