POTENTIAL FLASHPOINTS IN ARGENTINA[SANITIZED] - 1982/12/08

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Argentina Declassification Project - The "Dirty War" (1976-83)
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 05258658
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: April 3, 2019
• Document Release Date: April 12, 2019
• Publication Date: December 8, 1982

NR
SECT
Approved for Release: 2018/09/17 C05258658
!TTORANDOM FOR: Chairman, NIC
Vice Chairman, NIC
SUBJECT : Potential Flashpoints in
8 PeceMber 1982
NR
Argentina
5-4-114-5:
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1. This is to call your attention to two "sleepers" that could produce
flashpoints in the next few was.
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NR
Argentina
7. The general strike in all major cities on 6 December called by three labor
federations marks a potentially explosive turning point in Argentina's post-Falklands
politics. It has shattered an unnatural calm that settled over the nation after
the Falklands humiliation. On 14 June, the day before Argentine forces surrendered,
Raul Alfonsin, leader of the moderate Radical Civic Union, called for the resigna-
tion of the junta on the ground that the military had lost its right to govern.
The Army managed to contain public outrage by appointing retired Major Ceneral
Reynaldo Bignone to replace President Caltieri on 22 June and by pledging that
the Army would lead a "short-tern transition government" aired at restoring civilian
political rule "by the early months of 1984."
8. The general strike and a series of major protests scheduled for later this
month signal that the Argentine public has lost confidence in the Army's pledges
and is determined to speed its withdrawal from power. Labor and political leaders
have been forced by an increasingly restless public to call protest demonstrations
In order to protect their credibility. The ominous change in the public mood has
been manifested in recent disturbances in Buenos Aires suburbs and at events like
soccer matches. Onposition leaders are concerned that they are losing control over
growing anti-military sentiment. In a radio broadcast on 6 December, labor leader
Saul Ulbaldini said, "We are not doing anything more than comunicating the disquiet"
of the rank and file to the government.
9. The general strike and the coming mass protests will cnnfront the military
government with a choice between acconmodatinp, public demands by accelerating
the restoration of civilian rule or attempting to intimidate political and labor
leaders by resorting to suppressive measures. In this highly volatile atmosphere,
a misstep by the government could trigger serious outbreaks of violence. The
crucial decisions will be made by Army Commander Nicolaides. If further strikes and
demonstrations seem to be getting out of control, Nicolaides may decide to remove
President Bignone and assume what amounts to dictatorial powers.
- 10; There probably is at least an even chance that a move by Nicolaides to assume
direct power himself would be internreted by the opposition as a decision to sunpress
rapidlyi growing demands for imediate changes, and that this would precipitate a
serious challenge to the regime that could be defeated only by a massive use of force.
H. C. Cochran
Special Assistant for Warning
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AT 8 December 1982
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Argentina
--The general strike in all major cities against the military government on 6 December
may lead to a showdown between labor and political leaders and the Army high command.
Dpposition leaders have called for a series of major protests this month aimed at
accelerating the armed forces' withdrawal from power, now scheduled for �arch 1984.
--Labor and political leaders apparently calculate that mass demonstrations calling
for an early return to civilian rule and economic reforms will forestall coup attempts
by Army hard-liners.
--Escalating protest demonstrations will increase the chances that Army Commander
Nicolaides will remove the figure-head President Bignone and assune power himself.
Nicolaides may justify such a move on the ground that political and labor leaders last
month rejected negotiations with the military over a "covenant"jeverning a return to -
-
citilian rule.
--The Army high command may believe that harsh sunpressive measures are necessary
to forestall public demands for an investigation of "disappeared" people during the
military's crackdown in the mid-1970s.
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