MONTHLY WARNING AND FORECAST MEETINGS FOR OCTOBER

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 05241614
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: March 16, 2022
• Document Release Date: June 7, 2016
• Case Number: F-2016-00701
• Publication Date: October 31, 1983

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The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, D.C. 20505
NIC #7805-83
National Intelligence Council 31 October 1983
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
VIA
FROM
Charles E. Waterman
Vice Chairman, National Intelligence Council
David Y. McManis
National Intelligence Officer for Warning
SUBJECT Monthly Warning and Forecast Meetings
for October
1. The reports on the NIO Warning and Forecast meetings are
attached.
2. Warning highlights follow:
a. INF
(1) Soviets continue to threaten a halt
in negotiations if INF is deployed, but also
are being more explicit in their proposals to
reduce the number of SS-20's facing Europe.
These latter statements have a
"reasonableness" that will appeal to many in
Western Europe and will add to the political
debate. General Chervov reiterated the threat
to the U.S. by saying the Soviets would deploy
missiles with a ten-minute flight time to the
U.S.
(2) If the Soviets walk out of the INF
talks, fulfill their threats to take military
countermeasures and reassess their policies
toward Bonn and Berlin, Kohl's position
supporting further deployments will be
criticized at home. FRG would intensify
efforts toward a formula to address Soviet
concerns about British and French nuclear
forces. Once initial INF deployments occur,
other NATO allies are likely to try to set a
more positive European tone in arms control
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and could challenge U.S. positions on related
security issues.
2. Romania
Energy problems, take-home pay reductions,
and drought impacted crops will lower living
standards and increase dissatisfaction this
winter. Romania is likely to have additional
isolated demonstrations and strikes, although
security forces are able to contain them.
Renewed anti-Ceaucescu sentiment is likely,
more pronounced feelings are possible.
3. Cyprus
Turkish Cypriots are seriously considering
declaring independence -- a move that almost
certainly would end hope of a negotiated
settlement in the short- or mid-term. Andara
may condone the move, perhaps as early as the
first quarter of 1984. The U.S. would have
little additional warning of a declaration and
Turkey would not be amenable to last-minute
appeals. A Greek-Turkey-Cypriot crisis would
be likely.
4. Guatemala
There has been a deterioration of the
human rights situation, with the security
forces joining with right-wing elements in
killings. We expect this trend to increase.
Meanwhile, General Mejia is not building a
popular constituency, although he seems to be
facing no consistent political opposition to
remove him from power. Guerrillas are more
active, their urban structure is improving and
greater unity of individual guerrilla commands
is apparent. Human rights problems will aid
the guerrillas in the longer term.
5. El Salvador
The guerrillas are not doing as well as
they were a year ago. The government still
has the military momentum. However the
activities of death squads is increasing and
U.S. representations have not been effective
in discouraging the kidnappings and murders.
In fact, General Vides appears less capable
than General Garcia was in controlling death
squads. There is sympathy in the Army for
right-wing ARENA, and the ARENA leadership and
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following is politically unstable. A common
remark in El Salvador is that a coup is
inevitable if Duarte should win upcoming
elections.
6. Nicaragua
There is a growing likelihood that the
Sandinistas will respond to attacks in their
country by launching small-scale special
operations into Honduras and Costa Rica.
Mid East
Arafat has been seriously undermined and
Syria has the dominant voice in the PLO.
Palestinian and radical group terrorist
actions against Israeli, MNF and U.S. targets
in Lebanon will continue. The dilemma for our
Marines in Lebanon is that the more they
control their perimeter the more they come in
conflict with radical gunmen; thus, Marines
will remain a vulnerable target for any group
trying to stop the peace process.
8. Iran-Iraq
The five Super Entendards are still
unlocated. Delivery to Iraq will begin a
countdown for use against Iran and economic
targets of other countries in the Arabian Gulf
area.
9. Pakistan
Agitation in Sind Province continues into
the tenth week, shows no signs of abating, and
demonstrates Zia's vulnerability in not being
able to deal with Sindhi alienation.
Increased economic disruption and spreading
and prolonged disturbances would probably
result in Zia being replaced by the Army. If
the situation remains unchanged or improves,
Zia will still be in power six months from
now.
10. The Philippines
Barring assassination or deteriorating
health, Marcos will probably be in power six
months from now, but his power and room for
maneuver will be reduced. The elite and inner
circle seem to be focussed on the succession
issue.
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11. North/South Korea
North Korea's alert has returned to a more
normal state. South Korea has threatened
retaliation if another Rangoon-like incident
should occur.
Attachments:
As stated (h/w)
David Y. McManis
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SUBJECT:
Distribution:
Copy 1
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Monthly Warning and Forecast Meetings
- DCI (w/atts)
- DDCI (w/atts)
- Executive Director (w/atts)
- SA/IS/OCI (w/o atts)
- Executive Registry (w/atts)
- DDI (w/atts)
- DDO/C/EPDS (w/atts)
- DDO C PCS (w/atts)
NIC #7805-83
31 October 1983
for September
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atts)
- DDI Rep/SAC/ADCOM (w/o
10
- DDI Rep LL (w/o atts)
11
- VC/NIC (Mr. Meyer) (w/atts)
12
- VC/NIC (Mr. Waterman) (w/atts)
13
- D/AG
w/o atts
14
- NIO/AF
n
15
- NIO/AL
m
m
16
- NIO/EA
m
17
- NIO/GPF
m
m
18
- NIO/LA
H
19
- NIO/NESA
H
U
20
- NIO/E
H
U
21
- NIO/SP
m
m
22
- NIO/USSR-EE
m
m
23
- NIO/WE
m
H
24
- NIO/S&T
m
m
25
- NIO/PPT
m
m
26
- NIO/AG
m
m
27
- D/CPAS
m
M
28
- D/OCR
m
U
29
- D/SOVA
mII
30
- D/EURA
m
m
31
- 0/ALA
m
m
32
- D/OIA
11
11
33
- D/NESA
m
m
34
- D/OEA
m
m
35
- D/OGI
M
m
36
- D/OSWR
m
m
37
- C/COMIREX
mII
38
- C/SIGINT Corn.
39
- C/HRC
m
IS
40
- SRP
m
N
41
- SA/DDI/CS
It
m
42
- DDI Registry (w/atts)
43
- NIO/W
m
m
44
- A/NIO/W
m
II
45
- NWS
m
m
46
- SAW
m
N
47
- NIO/W Subject File (w/atts)
48
- NIO/W Chron
m
m
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