MONTHLY WARNING ASSESSMENT: WESTERN EUROPE

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 05241555
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: March 16, 2022
• Document Release Date: March 10, 2016
• Case Number: F-2015-02129
• Publication Date: September 26, 1983

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The Director of Central Intelligence
Washington, D.C. 20505
National Intelligence Council
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
National Intelligence Officer for Warning
Hilton Kovner
National Intelligence Officer for Western Europe
Mantly Warning Assessment: Western Europe
THROUGH
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FROM
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SUBJECT
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NIC No. 6930-83
26 September 1983
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"Peace" Movement Update
West Germany. The Federal Republic remains the locus for the
largest demonstrations next month as the date for initial INF
deployments nears. The October demonstrations will be large and mostly
non-violent; for the movement as a whole this fall may be more of a
"grand finale" than a commencement. Nevertheless, a determined
hard-core band of activists may increasingly become more dedicated to
violence. It is clear, for example, that "Red Army Faction" am
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autonomist fringe groups plan disruptive actions; and some "Green"
elements, discouraged by the mild resonance of recent demonstrations,
such as that at Mutlangen, promise a more active interpretation of
"civil disobedience."
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Netherlands. "Peace" sentiment may have gained strength from
backing by the Labor Party and trade unions, but public anti-INF
sentiment is not ac.utc occaL.:c of the late deployment dates for the
Netherlands.
Belgium. Enthusiasm for the movement remains greater in Flanders
than in Wallonia, the site of the proposed INF base, although
Francophone Socialists and the Christian labor federation have been
increasing their support of the movement in the south.
Italy. With "autonomist" groups urging provocative actions at the
Comiso basing site, violence is a possibility. Overall, however, the
movement appears weak in the face of continued Communist ambivalence.
Milon Kovner
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