MONTHLY WARNING MEETING: WESTERN EUROPE

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 05241478
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: March 16, 2022
• Document Release Date: March 10, 2016
• Case Number: F-2015-02129
• Publication Date: June 24, 1983

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Approved for Release: 2016/03/03 C05241478
The Director of Central Intelligence
WasMnton,D.C.20505
NIC No. 4656-83
24 June 1983
National Intelligence Council
MEMORANDUM FOR: Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
National Intelligence Officer for Warning
Milton Kovner
National Intelligence Officer for Western Europe
THROUGH
:
FROM
:
SUBJECT
:
Monthly Warning Meeting: Western Europe
Greece
1. The host of last minute objections to the text of the draft
US-Greek base agreement by the Greek government was attributed by most
analysts to Papandreou's reluctance to have the agreement falter on the
single issue of duration, and to protestations by some of his associates
that the text was in many ways less advantageous to Greece than either
the 1977 or 1981 draft accords. On the question of possible further
Greek moves, it was generally agreed that while it was unlikley that the
Greek government was prepared to concede much on the agreement's
provisions for renewal, having now widened the number of issues on which
differences exist it will be willing to continue the negotiating process
in the hope of seeking appropriate trade-offs on outstanding issues.
Turkey
2. With the promulgation on June 13 of the election law, November 6
is set as the election date and August 25 will mark the beginning of
campaigning. The consensus is that Turkey will remain politically stable
during the transition to civilian rule, although some increase in
terrorism can be expected. General Evren, who will become the civilian
president, will remain a highly popular leader, able to retain wide
support for Turkey's "guided" democracy. Initially, at least, dissent --
primarily from the intellectual elite -- will not be a problem, given the
structures established by the new constitution. In the longer run, it is
questionable whether political expression can be effectively contained
within the centrist parties favored by Evren.
L1`6,I3T
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Italy
3. Major shifts in voting patterns are unlikely in the national
elections on June 26 and 27, and the most probable outcome will be a
coalition again including the Christian Democrats, Republicans, Liberals,
Social Democrats, along with the Socialists, whose defection in April
caused the downfall of Prime Minister Fanfani's five-party cabinet.
Negotiations will nevertheless be difficult, especially between Christian
Democrats and Socialists, and it remains doubtful whether the main hope
for a new government -- a rigorous economic policy to combat high public
sector deficits, inflation, and unemployment -- can be fulfilled. Should
the Socialists do poorly in the elections, their bargaining power would
be reduced, but a centrist coalition without the Socialists would not
have the parliamentary strength to survive for long. Should the
Socialists fall far below their already reduced expectation of 12 percent
of the vote, Craxi's leadership of the party could be in trouble, and the
Socialist's left wing increase its influence. The Communists are not
expected to show a gain in the elections. The campaign has shown
evidence of considerable voter resentment of politics and politicians,
and if the results confirm a high rate of absenteeism and blank ballots,
it could mark a significant disenchantment with politics as usual in
Italy.
"Peace" Movement
4. There is a growing mood of pessimism among "peace" activists in
Western Europe about the movement's ability to influence events, notably
the deployment of INF. Analysts nevertheless expect that activities
planned for the fall will ensure very large demonstrations, especially in
West Germany, where the opposition Social Democrats and German labor are
increasingly encouraging individuals to participate. While acknowledging
the prevalence of substantial anti-nuclear sentiment, most analysts
believe that the numbers of people demonstrating will not reach new
records and may in fact fall off next spring. Violence cannot be
excluded, although it will not be promoted by "peace" movement leaders,
and the public generally will not be sympathetic to civil disobedience.
The greatest danger may lie in governmental "over-reaction" to incidents
set off by demonstrations. Most analysts believe a Geneva agreement that
sanctioned some Western deployment would thin the ranks of "peace"
movement demonstrations; others believe the hard core of likely
demonstrators are unlikely to be dissuaded by a US-Soviet accord.
11 Mi11t n Kovner
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