STATUS REPORT ON CIVIL UNREST IN THE USSR

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 05160454
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: December 17, 2024
• Document Release Date: November 15, 2024
• Case Number: F-2016-00959
• Publication Date: September 9, 1983

Approved for Release: 2024/11/13 C05160454
�
c,t)
FORM NO. 10 REPLACES FORM 10-101
1 AUG 54 WHICH MAY BE USED.
(47)
�Approved for Release: 2024/11/13 C05160454
Approved for Release: 2024/11/13 C05160454
41110
MEMORANDUM FOR: /4"'
'
74/2 ss-2--- z-
42/ /7/4.-- r' s" 7.75
- ya 4./4I7774--
"".
FORM NO.
I 0 I REPLACES FORM 10.101
I AUG 54 WHICH MAY BE USED.
MEMORANDUM FOR:
FORM NO. 101 REPLACES FORM 10-101
1 AUG 54 ' WHICH MAY BE USED.
L")".-**7-0-7,-��-//"-X'
(DATE)
(47)
(47)
Approved for Release: 2024/11/13 C05160454
Approved for Release: 2024/11/13 C05160454
� - �
9 September 1983
MEMORANDUM FOR: Charles Waterman, VC/NIC
THROUGH : Hal Ford, D/AG
SUBJECT : Status Report on Civil Unrest in the USSR
1. This memo (a) provides an update on developments related to the NICM
Dimensions of Civil Unrest since its publication in April, and (b) makes
several recommendations for additional follow-up activity.
2. The key developments are these:
(b)(3)
o I have worked closely with of DDI's Analytic Support
Group. He has written the just released companion study to the NICM
which focusses on data problems and collection implications. This paper
resulted as a routine follow-up report based on the capture-recapture
model (discussed in the NICM's appendix) the ASG used to estimate the
amount of civil unrest that has probably occurred but did not get
reported for the period of the study.
(b)(1)
o I have briefed DDO/IAD officers on the overall findings of the NICM.(13)(3)
I have briefed
Interest levels
(b)(1)
(b)(3)
appeared to be high.
o I have held preliminary discussion with CRES and the IC staff on some of
the collection implications raised by this study.
o I have briefed about 6 or 7 defense attaches and assistants who are
either going to Moscow or who were home on mid-tour leaves. I also
briefed a military attache going to Stockholm,
3. The subject of civil unrest in the Soviet Union still continues to
elicit widely varying, if sometimes erroneous, interpretations. Three recent
examples stand out:
o In an article on improved food distribution in the USSR, the NID
reported on 1 August that "food related worker unrest has declined since
1981." Because of the lag in reporting on civil unrest in the
USSR--statistically demonstrated in the ASG paper cited above--there can
be no empirical basis for that conclusion; the data simply aren't in
yet. (The judgment itself could be wrong; it is surely misleading).
S-E-
-1-
Approved for Release: 2024/11/13 C05160454
Approved for Release: 2024/11/13 C05160454
� S--U-*sL
o Based on an Intourist visit to a showcase mine in Donetsk, the Embassy
in Moscow recently reported favorably on the discipline, salary, and
working conditions of the Donetsk coal miners. Actually, the miners
there and elsewhere in that reaion have staapd impressive strikes in
1979 and 1980, The Embassy report
� gives no indication that their visiting officers (who returned
"impressed") had any awareness whatever of labor unrest in the Ukrainian
coal mines. (Other strikes by Soviet coal miners have reportedly
occurred in the Artic, the Urals, Estonia, and Kazakhstan).
o The Washington Post article last April on the possible spillover of
labor unrest from Poland into the Baltics also stated that, despite the
apparent calls for strikes in Estonia, none had occurred there. This
conclusion was also reported by our Embassy (which is probably where the
Post's Moscow correspondent got his information). Actually, my data
base shows about 9 strikes in Estonia, along with 18 demonstrations, 5
riots, and 7 acts of political violence--including 3 attempts to
assassinate Karl Vaino the Communist Party leader there; all but two of
these reported incidents occurred since 1979.
4. In a memo I prepared 27 June on follow up measures, I suggested a range
of actions that might be pursued to enhance our ability to better understand
the scope and implications of civil unrest in the USSR, and some ways to
exploit this phenomenon to US advantage. I need not repeat all those points
here, but reactions to the NICM from interested readers (in DDO mainly, but
also from DIA, INR, and NSC) have reinforced several of my earlier
impressions. Let me reiterate a few recommendations:
o We should institutionalize the analytical effort. More is needed than a
one-shot study. Analysts here and elsewhere have not given the subject
the analytical attention that it warrants.
Collection should be improved across the board.
(b)(1)
(b)(3)
(b)(1)
(b)(3)
To repeat an important
sidelight of the study: ASG found that two-to-five times as much civil
unrest may be occurring in the Soviet Union than we are seeing. Even if
these multiples should prove to be overstated, we should still be
looking more thoroughly than we have been.
o The study should be sanitized to SECRET, with fewer or no dissemination
controls. I have started this effort but had to put it aside for the
moment. Everyone agrees that its present distribution is much too (W(1)
restricted (b)(3)
o A working group on this subject should be established, with broader
participation from DDI (SOVA and ASG), DDO (SE and IAD), State (EUR/SOV
and INR), DIA, OSD It could check and improve our present (W(1)
data base, help to sensitize collectors, and more fully explore
analytical implications. In the past, our understanding
(b)(1)
(b)(3)
S-E-
-2-
Approved for Release: 2024/11/13 005160454
Approved for Release: 2024/11/13 C05160454
upgraded through improved collection and analysis that these interagency
forums have spurred. The NIC would be a logical unit to chair the
group--it would give the project the DCI's authority. it is properly an
interagency effort, both Stan Moskowitz and are interested, (b)(3)
and with the recent NICM this is where the most comprehensive work on
the subject has been done (the first like it in 20 years).
5. I happily volunteer my services to develop more detailed
recommendations, and to participate in a follow-on working group.
(b)(3)
NIC/AG
S-E-C-R-E-T
-3-
Approved for Release: 2024/11/13 C05160454