NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY (CABLE) 13 MARCH 1982

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 05065656
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: December 28, 2022
• Document Release Date: December 1, 2017
• Case Number: F-2017-01734
• Publication Date: March 13, 1982

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Director of Top Secret
Central
Inteffigence C
CAntil g44-0'
National Intelligence Daily
(Cable)
13 March 1982
Top Secret
CO NIDC 82-060C (b)(3)
13 March 1982
Copy 402
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The National Intelligence Daily (Cable) is prepared in the
Central Intelligence Agency in cooperation with the other
US foreign intelligence organizations for the purpose of
informing senior US officials.
This page is Cold-ALA:al.
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Contents
El Salvador: Status of Government Offensive 1
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EL SALVADOR: Status of Government Offensive
//The large-scale Army operation launched early this week in
central El Salvador has encountered only light resistance. The
leader of one of El Salvador's major rightist parties has offered
('
a plan for de eating the insurgents and fostering economic recovery.//
//The Salvadoran military has begun another operation
in the west near Santa Ana aaainst an inqnraPnt base area
Meanwhile,
e guerrillas have destroyedthe ridge over the Torola
River in northern Morazan Department. As a result, much
of the sparsely populated area near the Honduran border
is isolated from the regional capital.//
Comment: //Other new Army campaigns also are likely
against guerrilla base areas as the elections approach.
As the destruction of the bridge in Morazan demonstrates,
however, the insurgents can still score successes in hit-
and-run raids. Establishing polling places in northern
Morazan will now be difficult.//
Rightist Plan
Ultraconservative leader Roberto D'Aubuisson has
informed US officials that he would immediately impose
a "state of war" if his National Republican Alliance
wins a majority in the elections. He contends that
this would facilitate increased military action against
the insurgents. He also would institute universal
conscription.
In addition, D'Aubuisson indicated that he would
grant unconditional amnesty to all guerrillas and sug-
gested that the US assist by offering temporary asylum.
He advocated confiscation of property belonging to the
immediate families of proved insurgents unless the owners
cooperate with the government.
--continued
1
Inn
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D'Aubuisson believes economic recovery
should be
tied to a "free market" policy designed to encourage
greater private sector investment and production. He
noted that he would make
additiona1 low-interest
credit
available to businesses.
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Comment: A government
headed by D'Aubuisson
would
further polarize the country, force some political mod-
erates into hiding or exile, and almost certainly alien-
ate international backers. He would ultimately face a
greater guerrilla challenge more openly
supported by
foreign governments.
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Prospects for economic improvement will
remain
bleak until foreign and domestic lenders and investors
become convinced that the insurgency is no longer a
threat and that the political situation has stabilized.
D'Aubuisson's proposed increases in low-interest credit
would violate the terms of a recent agreement between
San Salvador and the IMF, jeopardizing a key three-year
aid package totaling $300
million for 1983-85.
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