POLICY TALKING POINTS FOR NSC PAPER ON 'US POLICY IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN'

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03428559
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: March 8, 2023
• Document Release Date: July 25, 2019
• Case Number: F-2017-01307
• Publication Date: May 14, 1981

Approved for Release: 2019/07/16 C03428559
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TAB B
14 May 1 981
POLICY TALKING POINTS FOR NSC PAPER ON
"US POLICY IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN"
ISSUES FOR DECISION (page 4 of Executive Summary)
1. The SIG seeks general NSC blessing for the paper's integrated
approach. Recommend that DCI respond favorably.
Political and economic changes in the target countries could prove
as important to protecting US interests as does stopping Cuban-Soviet aid
to insurgents. US is not ready militarily for near-term direct confrontation
with Cuba, and concentration on this aspects would increase the diplomatic
and US political costs to the Reagan administration.
2. SIG seeks NSC guidance on whether the US should adopt an "enhanced"
(Package A) or "all-out" (Package 6) approach. Recommend that DCI respond
selectively.
Sponsors know that choice is not that clear cut. Recommend overall
high priority, to reduce challenges to our interests through substantial US
resource commitments. In particular, recommend "all-out" for improving
political, economic, and social conditions in target countries. This is
likely to be the key to generating US domestic and international support.
Recommend "enhanced" for confronting Cuba, overthrowing Sandinistas, and
security assistance. Too great an emphasis on these would isolate the US,
and thus add heavy indirect costs to the considerable direct risks involved.
3. Sponsors want to get started on consultations with Congress, US
allies, and key regional countries. Recommend DCI approval. But would note
that to be effective, consultations must emphasize the positive (political,
economic, and social change) and not the negative (going to the source).
4. Sponsors want authorization for subsequent IG work on developing
specific courses of action. Recommend DCI approval, but also that he ensure
CIA participation across-the-board.
COMMENTS ON STRATEGIC ELEMENTS
1. Measures. . . to Control Present Armed Insurgency (page 3 of text)
As developed here and in follow-on paper, calls for DOD security
assistance and military training programs to double from $30 million in
FY 81 to $60 million in FY 82. Congressional opposition could be softened
if economic and political aspects of overall strategy are emphasized.
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2. Effective US Support for Improving. . . Political, Economic,
and Social Conditions. . . (page 3)
a. Will not be either easy or cheap. State's initial estimate
(pages 12-13) of $410 million in additional US official assistance in
FY 1982, to "turn the economic situation around", is probably much too low.
Will probably need additional $100 + million per year for post-insurgency
reconstruction in El Salvador alone.
b. "Reagan Plan for Caribbean Basin Cooperation" holds considerable
promise, especially as it signals lasting, serious US commitment Similar to
"Lome Agreement" that EEC adopted for former colonies. Will run into US
labor and industry opposition.
c. Changing Central America's political culture is a major under-
taking. For example, Guatemala regularly holds elections, and just as
regularly rigs them.
d. Curbing military excesses also a problem in Guatemala as in
El Salvador. Those in control see moderate reformers as subversives.
3. Nicaragua (page 6). Little chance Sandinistas will change their
stripes. If the US pushes too hard, they will eliminate the domestic moderates
Obvious or suspected US hand in overthrowing regime will be very costly with
Congress, Mexico, and Western Europe. Much to recommend "damage limitation"
approach. Carrot and stick to reduce Nicaraguan aid to insurgents, and to
limit security ties to Cuba. If other countries do well under new US
program, Nicaragua may eventually come around. Even if US decides that it
cannot live with Sandinistas, it would be better to get positive elements
of program in high gear first. However, attention needed now to deciding
US role with anti-Sandinista exiles and governments.
4. Cuba (page 7). Much to recommend a "damage limitation" approach
here as well. Keep raising the costs and risks to Havana of excessive aid
to insurgents, but delay or avoid military confrontation while working on
positive aspects of the regional program. But here too, must advance planning
and readiness in case Castro provokes clash or sends troops to Nicaragua.
5. Soviet Union (page 8). Soviet reaction likely to depend on whether
Moscow perceives US is trying to curb Havana's activities in Latin America,
or is trying to overthrow Castro regime. If first, Moscow may use its
leverage to effect greater Cuban prudence (but not total cutoff of aid to
revolutionaries). If second, Moscow will see it as major crisis in US-USSR
relations.
6. These Policy Talking Points have been discussed with C/LA/DDO and
C/LA/OPA.
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