TALKING POINTS: POLITICAL FALLOUT FROM THE BEIRUT MASSACRE

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03427628
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: March 8, 2023
• Document Release Date: July 25, 2019
• Case Number: F-2018-00205
• Publication Date: September 22, 1982

Approved for Release: 2019/07/23 C03427628
SECRET
A/NIO/NESA
22 September 1982
Talking Points: Political Fallout from the Beirut Massacre
1. The revelations about the Shatilla and Sabra refugee camp massacres
is arousing a domestic outcry in Israel that may well challenge Prime Minister
Begin's hold on power. The key threat to Begin is the development of a
Watergate-style political scandal in which the government's credibility is
steadily eroded by a series of ever-more-shocking and embarrassing
revelations.
Tel Aviv
knew some kind of massacre was underway on early Friday but did
nothing to stop it for another 12-24 hours.
this
contradicts Israel's argument that it did not know the militia
going into the camps until after the fact.
was
Begin is a proven survivor and many Israelis -- especially his Sephardic
constituency -- will rally behind him out of nationalist sentiment.
Nonetheless, the religious parties -- key Begin coalition partners -- seem
particularly outraged by the moral dimensions of the massacre and want an
independent investigation which Begin says he opposes.
-- Should the two religious parties quit Begin's Likud coalition,
Labor could form a new government with them and several leftist
groups.
-- Such a coalition would be very unstable, however.
The political polls showed widespread support for Begin before the massacre.
Israeli opposition politicans now will eagerly await new polls to gauge shifts
in opinion.
2. The massacre and Bashir Jumayyil's assassination have also
highlighted the strains in the Israeli-Phalange alliance. Press reports
indicate some Phalangists believe Israel had become disenchanted with Bashir
before his death because Bashir would not sign a peace treaty with Tel Aviv.
Some claim Israel encouraged dissident Maronites to work against Bashir and
may even have had a role in his death.
-- While this seems unlikely, it points up the growing tensions
between some Maronites and Israel.
These reports also underscore Amin Jumayyil's problem in gaining full control
over the Maronite military organizations. The Lebanese Forces militia were
Bashir's creation and their loyalty was to him, not to the Jumayyil family.
Israel doubtless will use its sympathizers in the Phalange and its Haddad
allies to pressure Amin to be more forthcoming on the peace treaty issue.
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ISRAEL-LEBANON: New Information on Massacre
Israel continues to draw down its forces in West Beirut.
Evidence of Tel Aviv's involvement in the events surrounding the
massacre at the refugee camps is mounting.
The Israelis have withdrawn at least two additional
battalions of troops from West Beirut and have turned
over part of it to the Lebanese Army, but at least three
brigades remain to search for weapons caches and PLO
guerrillas. The remaining members of the Muslim Mura-
bitun militia reportedly have fled or gone into hiding.
Meanwhile, Red Cross and Lebanese volunteers con-
tinue to uncover more bodies in the camps. Initial press
reports of 300 dead have now been revised upward to at
least 600.
Comment: Israel is moving slowly to relinquish
control of the city to the Lebanese Army, probably to
ensure that as many PLO guerrillas and arms caches as
possible are found before it withdraws its own forces.
Israeli Role in the Massacre
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Commander in Chief of the Christian Lebanese Forces,
Fadi Frem, ordered elements of his forces, primarily
Phalange, into the Sabra camp.
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Some time after these forces entered the camp,
Christian
militia leader Haddad's men were responsible for the
massacres at the Shatila camp and the nearby Akka and
1
--continued
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CLL
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Gaza hospitals.
Tel Aviv has now admitted publicly that the Phalange
was encouraged to "cleanse" the camps of PLO elements,
but disavows any responsibility for the massacres. The
Israeli Defense Force denies that Haddad's militia was
involved.
Comment: Tel Aviv's denial probably stems from
its desire to shift the blame away from the Israeli
Defense Force, which exercises complete control over
Haddad's militia.
and
the
it is estimated that 1,000 Palestinian civilians,
perhaps more, were killed during the 36-hour period
Christian militia was in the camp.
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22 September 1982
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Beirut
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Contents
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NR Record
Israel-Lebanon: New Information on Massacre 1
Israel: Pressure on the Government 3
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22 September 1982
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-Zet,
SCI.L
ISRAEL: Pressure on the Government
The Labor Party will use the special session of the Knesset
scheduled for today to push its demand for an independent inquiry
into the massacre in Beirut and cite recent events there as proof
of its contention that Prime Minister Begin's policies on Lebanon
are bankrupt.
Comment: If Labor decides to challenge Begin's
power, the party probably will encourage the two religious
parties--the National Religious Party and Agudat Israel--
and dissidents in the Liberal faction of Likud to desert
the coalition and form a new government. The National
Religious Party is increasingly disturbed over Begin's
hardline stance--party members were particularly upset
at the Prime Minister's rejection of their request for
an independent inquiry--and might be agreeable to an
appeal from Labor.
The Religious Party is already holding contacts with
Labor, according to press accounts. If Begin offers the
party an acceptable compromise on the inquiry issue.
however, he probably can keep it from bolting.
Begin apparently has decided to maintain his comba-
tive stance and rely on the substantial support for his
policies in the Sephardic community to ride out the con-
troversy. Further revelations of the government's mis-
handling of the massacre and its refusal to permit some
kind of inquiry could seriously threaten his hold on
power, however, even if he survives the immediate threat.
3
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Israeli Knesset Representation
Seats
Coalition
64
Likud
46
Herut
24
Liberals
18
Laam
3
Akiva Nof
1
National Religious Party
6
Agudat Israel
4
TAMI
3
Tehiyya
3
Hurvitz/Ben Porat
2
Opposition
56
Labor Alignment
50
Labor
42
MAPAM
7
Citizen's Rights Movement
1
Democratic Front for Peace and
Equality (Communists)
4
Shinui
2
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