MEMORANDUM FOR THE RECORD FROM L. K. WHITE

• Document Type: FOIA
• Collection: FOIA Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03397769
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 5
• Document Creation Date: March 9, 2023
• Document Release Date: September 18, 2020
• Case Number: F-2018-02449
• Publication Date: July 11, 1969

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11 July 1969
MEMORANDUM FOR THE RECORD
Morning Meeting of 11 July 1969
Godfrey pointed to the item in today's CIB related to infiltration
into Vietnam and briefed on the awkward coordination process which
preceded publication.
Godfrey reported on the possibility of a major clash between
Israeli and Arab forces over the weekend.
DD/I briefed on problems related to White House NSC staff
members' forwarding raw SIGINT material to the President. He
added that Dr. Kissinger is acquainted with this problem, and General
Cushman noted that General Carter is opposed to this practice.
The Director called attention to the piece by Joe Alsop in this
morning's Washington Post on the Sino/Soviet situation and asked
whether the facts are essentially as reported. D/ONE noted that an
NIE on the Sino/Soviet situation is being drafted.
D/ONE
mentioned that an
NIE is under way in response to an old White House requirement that
an Estimate on this subject be done on a country-by-country basis.
D/ONE reported that SNIE 4-69 was approved by USIB yesterday
and described security conditions as being better in Rumania than in
the Philippines.
reported that the DOD response to the
question raised by Senator Symington is due today. The Director asked
to see him upon receipt of the DOD response.
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Carver pointed to the differences in the community on whether
to publish on the Vietnam infiltration problem.
Maury noted that yesterday's session with Congressman Hastings
Keith did not go particularly well, since the Congressman was more
interested in hearing about Soviet missiles than about the political
situation in the Soviet Union.
Maury noted that
yesterday on the Middle East.
briefed Congressman Ogden Reid
Maury reported Chairman Rivers has indicated that the weeks
of 28 July and 4 August are available for the Director to appear before
the full House Armed Services Committee.
Bross reported that
will join us on Monday.
The Director called attention to various interpretations of our
8 July letter to Senator Stennis as reported in today's Washington Post
and New York Times.
The Director called attention to the FBIS translation of the Trud
article and characterized it as an extremely distorted report on the
PHOENIX program.
The Director noted that Senator Bayh will be here for breakfast
on Monday at 0800. He asked General Cushman, the DD/I, the DD/S&T,
and Maury to join them and briefly outlined the material to be covered.
L. K. White
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4111111
Joseph Alsop
Iron-Curtained Troop Moves
Toward China Still Unclear
LONDON�What is hap-
pening along the Soviet Un-
ion's frontier with Commu-
nist China has begun to look
alarmingly similar to what
happened along Czechoslo-
vakia's frontiers before the
invasion that ended the Un-
happy Czech bright dream
of a freer and better life.
To be sure, it is exactly
like watching developments
through a thick curtain
which could be seen in the
open, and in detail, in the
period before Czechoslova-
kia was attacked. The broad
pattern appears to he almost
identical. But even the pat-
tern is far from easy to dis-
cern with real assurance.
In addition, the pattern
may not have the same
meaning this time that it
had last time. In other
words, it may not be a pre-
attack pattern. It may be no
more than a war-of-nerves
pattern. All the same, the
thing has gone so far that it
has to be taken seriously,
even if you still believe that
a Soviet attack on China is
merely a solid possibility
rather than a probability, as
this reporter still believes.
THE PATTERN'S most
striking element is the con-
tinuing buildup of Russian
forces along the Sino-Soviet
border. To avoid redeploy-
ment of Soviet divisions
from the Eastern European
garrisons, large numbers of
men have apparently been
called to the colors, and re-
serve divisons have been ac-
tivated.
Great quantities of the
most modern Soviet military
materiel�rockets, artillery,
transport and so on and on
�have been moved into
place. In addition to the
very large Soviet troop con-
centrations at the Man-
churian and western ends of
the long frontier, at least
some Soviet troops are now
known to have entered
Outer Mongolia, thus consti-
tuting a third center of
threat.
The recent troop buildup
and movement of materiel
are also the most likely rea-
sons for the long closing of
the Trans-Siberian railroad
to normal traffic. In the
past, this has happened for
periods of up to a fortnight,
for various local reasons.
But by now the Trans-Sibe-
rian has been closed to nor-
mal traffic for close to
seven weeks.
FINALLY, there is the
very curious and striking
fact that the Soviets have
been engaged in what looks
very much like pre-attack
stockage of strategically
critical raw materials.
Wholly unprecedented So-
viet orders for many tens of
thousands of tons of rubber
have been placed, for inst-
ance, in Malaya and Singa-
pore.
All this seems to tie in,
moreover, with the mysteri-
ous offer of security pacts to
various Asian countries that
was made by Leonid Brezh-
nev in his violently anti-
Chinese speech at the recent
multiparty 'Communist rally
in Moscow. In India and
Pakistan, in Laos and -Cam-
bodia and elsewhere, Brezh-
nev's offer has been spelled
out by the local Soviet diplo-
matic representatives, with-
out result as yet, but still in
a .significant manner.
In China, finally, this cu-
rious pattern of Soviet prep-
arations is being taken with
deadly serionsness. There is
clear evidence from the
Chinese provinces that
meetings are being held to
warn Party cadres to be
ready for war before Octo-
ber.' Militia are being given
extra training, too. In short,
the Chinese clearly expect
the Soviets to attack, even if
the Western experts are still
very doubtful about it.
THE WORST of it is that
what the Soviets seem to be
preparing for will make no
sense at all unless they are
ready to use nuclear weap-
ons. They cannot avoid
using nuclear weapons if
their aim is preventive de-
struction of the Chinese nu-
clear capability. And this is
not only their most natural
aim. In addition, it will be
most imprudent to attack
without prior destruction of
the nuclear weapons that
might otherwise be used in
a desperate Chinese coun-
terattack.
Altogether, this pattern
that can 'thus be discerned,
through the curtain that
cloaks the whole Soviet
Union, has begun to look
quite exceptionally unpleas-
ant. It is easy, of course, to
think of Sino-Soviet war
as something that couldn't
happen to two nicer fellows.
But a cold-blooded preven-
tive war, including the use
of nuclear weapons, cannot
really be thought about in
this manner. If it comes, the
troubled era after World
War II will inevitably enter
a quite new, much darker
phase. That is the clear pos-
sibility�though not as yet
the probability�that now
' confronts us.
0 1969, Los Angeles Times
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I Joins
Senate Foes
01 ABM Plan
�
By Warren Unna
Washington Post Staff Writer
George D. Aiken of Ver-
mont, the Senate's senior Re-
publican, yesterday announced
he was opposed to the Admin-
istration's anti-ballistic missile
proposal and warned Presi-
dent Nixon he would never
get his bill through the Senate
Unless he compromised. ,
It is essential for the Admin-
istration to obtain a healthy
majority vote in the Senate,
Aiken declared, so that when
the United States sits down
with the Russians to talk
about a missile limitation
agreement, there will be evi-
dence of national unity in-
stead of. division.
He made it plain that the
compromise necessary is for
the President to withdraw his
insistence that ABM hardware
be deployed at the two ini-
tially designated sites in
North Dakota and Montana.
Aiken's Senate speech wa
considered especially signifi-
cant in that he not only is a
Senate senior but also one of
the handful who until now had
not committed himself on a
key vote that some think
might split the Senate 50 to
50.
Asked about Aiken's speech,
the White House said it re-
mained confident the ABM
would be approved.
oorov
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Since it was firsts advanced
on March 14, said Press Secre-
tary Ronald L. Ziegler, "support
has steadily picked up . . . we
have gained substantially and
lost no support."
"I think the spirit of accom-
modation still prevails," Sen.
Albert Gore (D-Tenn.), a lead-
ing ABM opponent, said in the
Senate. "But because it has
not met with reciprocation it
has become necessary to pre-
pare for a showdown battle ..
Reciprocation is a two-way
street."
Senate Majority Leader
Mike Mansfield (D-Mont.) ap-
plauded Aiken's announce-
ment and said that ABM oppo-
nents want a compromise that
"will indicate to the Russians
that the Senate is behind the
President on the limitation of
armam,ents and the bringing
about of negotiations."
Mansfield said he personally
f avored the compromise
amendment introduced into
the Senate Wednesday by
Sens. John Sherman Cooper
(R-Ky.) and Philip A. Hart (D-
Mich.). This would permit the
Administration's current re-
quest for $759.1 million in
ABM authorization money to
be used for further research
and development�but not for
deployment.
Another compromise amend-
ment was introduced yester-
day by Sen. Thomas J.
McIntyre (D-N.H.) that would
permit certain on-site radar,
computer and electronic work
in North Dakota and Montana
�but no actual operational
missile deployment.
Hart said the McIntyre
amendment would allow the
Administration to go ahead
with just %Vhat it intends to do
anyway, while the Hart-
Cooper amendment would
"keep anyone from doubting
that it's really testing and not
just the first step in deploy-
ment."
Aiken, in his Senate speech,
voiced interest in both amend-
ments without indicating
which he would support.
Sen. Peter H. Dominick (R-
Colo.), a leading ABM propo-
ABM, From Al nent, said e thougtht even
McIntyre's amendment "would
prevent deployment" and he
would vote against it.
Hart and Mansfield said the
best compromise would be one
that would allow the 'adminis-
tration to find out if its ABM
really works by testing the
components far out in the Pa-
cific at Kwajalein and Eniwe-
tok atolls, which would have
the same dispersion advantage
as North Dakota and Montana.
The ABM concept is to
shoot down approaching
enemy missiles before they
can reach their targets. The
administration's proposal so
far is limited to placing ABMs
around Minuteman missile
silos to keep the enemy aware
that enough U.S. missiles will
survive for retaliation.
The ABM opponents base
their case on two arguments:
1. They think there is now
sufficient testimony from
qualified scientists to make it
doubtful that the Administra-
tion's Safeguard ABM ever
will provide the deterrence it
is supposed to�despite costs
estimated upwards of $10 bil
lion.
2. They are persuaded that
if the United States now pro-
ceeds into ABM construction
it will only add to the arms
race with the Russians and
make a missile limitation
agreement more difficult to
achieve.
Yesterday, Sen. Jacob K.
en, Senate GOP Dean, Op ses ABM
Javits (R-N.Y.),. in a speech at
the Overseas Press Club in
New York, criticized Defense
Secretary Melvin R. Laird's
"routine attitude" toward dis-
armament. He also criticized
President Nixon's "advisers"
who he said "construe as polit-
ical weakness the private ef-
forts of Senate Republican.
moderates, such as myself, to
reach a compromise on Safe-
guard."
Sen. James B. Pearson (R-
Kan.), another ABM opponent,
suggested a mutual morato-
rium by the United States and
Russia on further testing of
both the ABM and the Multi-
ple Independently Targeted
Re-entry Vehicle (MIRV), the
multi-warhead offensive mis-
sile.
Pearson said such a morato-
rium on strategic weapons de-
velopment "would allow us to
begin these (strategic arms
limitation) talks under condi-
tions superior to those (on
Vietnam) in Paris, where nego-
tiations must labor under
'fight and talk' conditions."
Chairman John Stennis (D.
Miss.) of the Senate Armed
Services Committee tried to
buttress the administration's
ABM case by introducing let-
ters from Laird and Lt. Gen.
R.E. Cushman Jr., deputy
director of the Central Intelli-
gence Agency. The letters pur-
ported to show that Laird and
CIA were in agreement that
Soviet nuclear - potential
makes it vital that the United
States proceed with perfecting
and deploying an ABM deter-
rent.
Chairman J. W. Fulbright
(D-Ark.) of the Senate Foreign
Relations Committee said the
Laird-Cushman letters missed
the point.
When Fulbright's committee
originally aired the matter it
was over Laird's hardening his
ABM stance by telling Con-
gress that "there is no doubt
about it," the Russians are
now developing offensive mis-
siles for a "first strike"
against the United States. This
was disputed by the U.S. intel-
ligence community, of which
CIA is a part.
In the letter Stennis put
into the record, Fulbright de-
clared, Laird limited his re-
marks to describing the Rus-
sian nuclear buildup, a fact
with which the CIA would
have no reason to disagree.
Also yesterday, Sen. Edward
M. Kennedy (D-Mass.) called
the ABM "a multi-million dol-
lar poker chip."
Kennedy said scientific in-
formation suggests that while
it would take five years for
the United States to build and
position its ABM, the Rus-
sians, could add to the arms
race ante and in six to 12
months build enough new of-
fensive missiles to neutralize
the U.S. ABM effort and
"make it entirely ineffective
and useless."
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