THE ISSUE TO ASSESS OUR EXCHANGES WITH QADHAFI AND TO DETERMINE THE STAFFING LEVEL OF OUR EMBASSY

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Fall of the Libyan Monarchy
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03336343
• Release Decision: RIFPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: August 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: August 30, 2019
• Publication Date: January 1, 1970

The Issue
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To assess our exchanges with Qadhafi and to determine
the staffing level of our Embassy and the Consular services
to be provided to Americans.
Key Factors
Our Charge in Tripoli returned to his post December 31
with the expectation that he would, shortly thereafter, be
received by Qadhafi and that he would personally receive
the assurances we were seeking as a basis for returning
to a more normal diplomatic relationship. We sent him your
message to Qadhafi on January 17 and he informed the Foreign
Office that he had such a message. There has been no re-
sponse from Qadhafi. There have, on the contrary, been
some hints that Qadhafi may not intend to carry through with
his part of the bargain. We need to decide whether to keep
our Embassy at its present minimum size. We need your ad-
vice on the disposition of your message to Qadhafi whioh was
intended to be delivered personally to him.
Even if Qadhafi provides a positive response, there
is another reason for postponing a decision on the future
of our Embassy until some time in March: the possibility
that Libyans or Palestinians -- possibly without government
approval -- will undertake further actions or demonstrations
against the U.S. during this present period of normalization
of relations between Israel and Egypt, including an exchange
of ambassadors between the two countries in late February.
To avoid a repetition of the December 2 attack, I believe
that during this period we should keep the mission drawn
down to the lowest level possible and undertake no visa
issuing or consular activities other than those minimally
required to ensure protection of Americans.
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While the exchanges you and Zbig have had from time
to time since early December with the Libyan representa-
tives in Washington have produced assurances made on
Qadhafi's behalf that he wants better relations and will
forestall future assaults on the Embassy, the Libyan be-
havior pattern in this period remains erratic.
The following list of recent Libyan activity is
not exceptional but represents the normal pattern of
Libyan external involvement. Qadhafi's soothing words
can quickly change to vehement invective and his ex-
plosive and changeable nature must be constantly taken
into account. The weight of intelligence evidence
suggests that Qadhafi himself authorized the attack on
our Embassy in order to prove that his government was
at least as "revolutionary" as the Iranians. One can
never be certain as to when he will again need to prove
his revolutionary credentials:
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There is mounting evidence that the commandos
who attacked Gafsa, Tunisia on January 27 were
trained, financed, and aided by Libya.
-- Despite a call for the release of the Tehran
hostages, Libya has made it clear that it will
give full and complete support to Iran in any
confrontation with the U.S.
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On Afghanistan, Qadhafi is concerned and wants
us to help Pakistan, but the Libyan delegate
was absent for the General Assembly vote on
the condemnation of the Soviet aggression.
Libyan Foreign Minister Turayki has publicly
defended the Russians, saying that "no one can
separate the Arab Nation from a real friend
and ally represented in the Soviet Union."
-- A recent intelligence report indicates that
the Libyan Air Force is carefully monitoring
U.S. Sixth Fleet activity in the Mediterranean
and may plan to challenge U.S. aircraft over
international waters--recent radar lock-on
incidents tend to confirm this monitoring
activity.
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The Libyan Government has recently pushed Jordan
to use any Libyan subsidy under the Baghdad ac-
cord to purchase arms only from the USSR.
Libyan agents in Chad have renewed subversive
activities, which may torpedo the Lagos peace
accords.
Libya's insistence on excluding Egypt from the
Afro-Arab meeting in Tripoli this month led to
the postponement of the meeting.
Qadhafi is seeking to topple Arafat and set up
a new Palestinian organization because he be-
lieves Arafat is too moderate.
-- In early January the Central African Republic
expelled the Libyan Embassy, citing continuing
Libyan-Soviet efforts to undermine the security
of the country.
Even so, there are still several good reasons, such
as our dependence on Libyan oil and our large American
community in Libya, for trying to maintain at least a
minimal relationship with Tripoli. we are helped by the
Libyan fear of an Egyptian attack. However, no fundamen-
tal changes in basic Libyan policy or behavior are likely
to occur. Qadhafi is a maverick whose penchant for
mischief-making is part of his very nature--and that
is not likel- '�
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Recommendation:
In that context, I believe that we should keep our
Mission at its present minimal level of eight (or lower),
provide only minimal consular services to Americans, and
reexamine its status in mid-March after the exchange of
Egyptian and Israeli ambassadors.
Approve Disapprove
With regard to our message to Qadhafi, in the
absence of his receiving Charge Eagleton, we recommend
it be delivered to the Foreign Minister.
Approve Disapprove
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