CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1955/04/24

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03194455
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: September 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: September 26, 2019
• Publication Date: April 24, 1955

Approved for Release: 2019/09/17 C03194455,
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3.3(h)(2)
3.5(c)
Copy No. 94
24
April
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO. IS
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
El DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: IS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE. _4'9- 0/0
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE: ighlige. REVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
TOP SECRET
1955
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SUMMARY
SOVIET UNION
1. New types of Soviet aircraft sighted over Moscow (page 3).
FAR EAST
2. Hatoyama government expected to survive critical Diet session
(page 3).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. 'Minh says removal of Diem will appear sect victory (page 4).
WESTERN EUROPE
4. Austriawill ask four-power guarantee of neutrality status
(13a1P 5).
THE FORMOSA STRAITS
(pages 7, 11)
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SOVIET UNION
. New tes of Soviet aircraft Sighted over Moscow:
seven practice flights since 6 April
or the annual May Day aerial parade,
t least three new types of Soviet air-
raft, as well as significant numbers
f four-engine jet heavy bombers, have
serve y Wes ern officials. New aircraft types sighted
include at least one jet fighter similar in appearance to the MIG;
a swept-wing, four-engine turboprop aircraft of heavy bomber
size; and a jet twin-engine swept-wing aircraft, probably a light
bomber.
In the sixth and largest pre-parade prac-
tice, held on the morning of 21 April, eight jet heavy bombers
were flown in two V's of three, preceded by two single aircraft.
FAR EAST
2. Hatoyama government expected to survive critical Diet session:
The Hatoyama government will have an
exceptionally hard time in the Diet ses-
sion due to reconvene on 25 April, with
bitter attacks expected from both the
Socialists and the conservative Liberals, according to the Ameri-
can embassy in Tokyo. The majority opinion at present, however,
is that the government will survive the session, which will prob-
ably last well into June.
Focal point of the opposition attacks will
be the budget, with the. Socialists in particular planning to denounce
the minority Democratic government for failing to implement cam-
paign promises for increased welfare benefits and for "surrender-
ing" to the United States by not reducing Japan's defense expendi-
tures.
The government's diplomatic "blunders"
will likewise be denounced, and there continue to be rumors that a
motion of no confidence will be submitted against Foreign Minister
Shigemitsu.
Comment: The recent Democratic moves
for a conservative merger, to bilrollowed by Hatoyama's retirement,
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were probably timed to serve as a conciliatory gesture toward
the Liberals. Hatoyarna can almost assure himself of Liberal
support on the budget by threatening to call new elections.
The government has set the stage to
blame Ambassador Iguchi in Washington for its failure to gain
US approval of Shigemitsuls visit. It will probably defend it-
self on the budget by placing responsibility on "American pres-
sure."
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. Minh says removal of Diem will appear sect victory:
ormer Vietnamese defense minister
o Thong Minh told American embassy
fficials that it may be impossible to
emove Premier Diem without making
uch a move appear a victory for the
ect front controlled by the Binh Xuyen.
e urged that the change nevertheless
e made, and suggested that Vietnamese
political groups, the sects, the French, and the Americans sug-
gest names of a successor, and Bao Dai would make the choice.
Minh, however, expressed apprehension regarding the possible
appointment of "a Tonkinese"- -presumably a reference to Phan
Huy Quat--as Diem's replacement.
Meanwhile, General Ely told the embassy
that some change must take place in four or five days. He de-
scribed Diem as "no longer the chief of the government, but merely
the chief of a band."
Comment: Recent consultations with the
principal Vietnamese aspirants Tir the premiership have revealed
their inability to agree among themselves on even minimum pro-
posals for the solution of the present crisis, beyond conceding the
need for a more representative government. Minh's political am-
bitions have long been evident to the embassy, and his remarks
appear designed to undercut his rival, Phan Huy Quato
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Since the beginning of the Diem-Binh
Xuyen dispute a month ago, Ely has been insisting that a solu-
tion within a matter of days was imperative. However, he told
General Collins on 19 April that he did not expect an "immediate
blow-up."
The Binh Xuyen continues openly and
systematically to flaunt the authority of the government, and
there are reports that troops of the Vietnamese army have been
encouraging incidents.
WESTERN EUROPE
4. Austria will ask four-power guarantee of neutrality status
Chancellor Raab told Ambassador
Thompson in Vienna on 21 April that
he intended to seek a four-power guar-
antee of Austrian neutrality, and that
Moscow might insist on the powers agreeing to this before sign-
ing the treaty. Raab considers that Austria has full freedom to
draft the text of its neutrality declaration as long as it follows
the Swiss model.
According to Thompson, Raab clearly
believes that Austrian neutrality will not go beyond avoiding mili-
tary alliances and refusing to permit the stationing of foreign
troops on Austrian soil. It would not bar membership in such
organizations as the Coal-Steel Community.
Raab does not consider that Austria
would be obliged to ship strategic material to the Soviet Union,
and he asserted that Austria could maintain its right of asylum
for iron curtain refugees.
Raab stated that the primary task of
his government is to maintain friendship with the United States,
and that he had already told German representatives in Vienna
that the Federal Republic must rearm, as this is the only lan-
guage Moscow understands.
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Comment: While the Western powers
have been prepared to respect Airitria's option for neutrality,
they have been opposed to a guarantee insisting that Austria re-
main neutral. Moscow seems to want primarily the Austrian
declaration of neutrality, which it can use immediately to stimu-
late West German interest in unification of a neutral Germany.
It seems probable that Austria will ship
some strategic materials, which the USSR has been able.to ac-
quire in Austria in the past.
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THE FORMOSA STRAITS
Report of the IA,C Current Intelligence Group
for the Formosa Straits Problem
This report is based on information received in Washington
up to 1100 hours 23 April 1955.
1. Chou En-lai's 23 April offer to negotiate with the United
States on rela2dng tensions in the Far East, "especially" in the
Formosa area, seems to be a Communist effort to regain the initia-
tive in the "peace" campaign. Peiping evidently believes that Chou's
offer, at a minimum, will recoup for the Communists the losses they
have suffered in the predominantly anti-Communist proceedings of
the Bandung conference to date, as most Asian governments favor a
negotiated settlement of Chinese questions and would be expected to
endorse Chou's proposal.
Chou apparently envisages direct talks with the United
States, rather than a multilateral conference such as the Commu-
nists have previously proposed. His statement does not indicate
any change in the Chinese Communist refusal to negotiate in any
way with Nationalist China.
Peiping has long insisted that any Formosa settlement
must involve a withdrawal of American forces from the area. It is
believed that the Chinese Communists would reaffirm this position
in any negotiations.
Chou's statement suggests the possibility that large-scale
military operations will not be undertaken pending the Communist
assessment of the prospects for negotiations.
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Formal Soviet statements and propaganda have avoided
the issue of possible Soviet involvement in such a war and have
been confined to vague expressions of Sino-Soviet solidarity. Pei-
ping propaganda, somewhat less vague on this point, has stated
several times in recent months that "the firm unity that exists be-
tween China and the Soviet Union is the most reliable guarantee of
the defeat of those who plot an atomic war."
3. the Chinese Com-
munists have assumed operational control of the Soviet BUTCHER
(IL-28) jet light bombers in the Port Arthur area, and that com-
plete transfer i,s imminent. An unidentified air-ground net in the
Port Arthur-Dairen region, which probably reflects BUTCHER
activity, has undergone a significant callsign change. Callsigns
now in use are very similar to those in use on other Chinese Com-
munist regional air-ground nets.
There have beer indications that the Chinese
Communists might receive some or all of the Soviet aircraft in
Port Arthur-Dairen. Both Communists China and Russia have
announced that Soviet units would be withdrawn by the end of May.
There are approximately 84 BUTCHERS in the Port
Arthur area. Of these, more than 60 are from the Mine-Torpedo
Division, and possibly are equipped with special aerial torpedo
attack equipment. Addition of the full Port Arthur BUTCHER com-
plement--plus the 36 BUTCHERS which have been handed over to
the Chinese Communists at Tsitsihar�would raise the Chinese
Communist air force and naval air force BUTCHER strength from
145 to 265 and provide for establishment of four two-regiment light
bomber divisions.
4. A summary of military developments in Communist
China during the period of 21 March - 21 April 1955 is attached,
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ANNEX
This annex is a summary of military developments in
Communist China during the period 21 March - 21 April 1955.
Ground:
There has been no evidence of any significant change in
Chinese Communist ground force dispositions in the East China
area (see map). For China as a whole, the only significant change
in ground force dispositions is the withdrawal of at least six divi-
sions from North Korea back to China. There is no evidence,
however, at this time that any of these divisions have been de-
ployed to the East China area.
Sea:
Additional small naval vessels, including at least two
LSrs, have moved into the Foochow area and have been employed
in local logistic tasks. A Nationalist naval patrol established to
intercept these ships north of the Pehling Peninsula has not been
successful. This patrol has since been curtailed concurrent with
an apparent decrease in Communist naval movements.
Air:
Prior to 20 March, information furnished by the Chinese
Nationalists was fragmentary and irregular. Since that time, admin-
istrative measures taken to improve this condition, coupled with
periods of good reconnaissance weather, have resulted in receipt
of considerable information regarding Chinese Communist air force
developments.
This increase in the number of reports, together with air-
craft counts not previously available, may have created the impres-
sion of a rather heavy buildup in the East China area. While this
may be true, in most cases it cannot be definitely determined whether
aircraft strength at a given point represents additional aircraft brought
into the area, aircraft redeployed from other airfields within the
area, or aircraft which have been at the particular point for some
time.
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In any case, there have been four significant developments
during the period:
I. 39 BUTCHER jet light bombers have arrived at Hangchow.
For the first time aircraft of this type are known to be based within
combat radius of Formosa and the offshore islands.
2. Photography has disclosed a well-equipped air depot at
Nanchang. This is the only one known to exist this far south.
3. Jet fighters now operate from the newly completed strip
at Luchiao, and active construction is proceeding on four new air-
field sites along the East China coast--Swatow NE, Lungchi,
Chingyang and Nantai.
4. 34 BUTCHER jet light bombers have arrived in Manchuria
from the USSR. There is additional evidence that these aircraft may
supplement the Chinese Communist naval air force BUTCHER strength
in the Tsingtao area.
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THE FORMOSA STRAITS
Report of the IAC Current Intelligence Group
for the Formosa Straits Problem
This report is based on information received in Washington
up to 1100 hours 24 April 1955.
1. a
jet fighter unit of probable divisional size moved from the Shantung
Peninsula, 350 miles north of Shanghai, probably to Changchiao .
airfield at Ningpo on 20, 21 and 22 April. The jets are believed
to be subordinate to the hinese Communist naval air force.
2. Premier Chou En-lai told the Bandung conference on
24 April that the US and China should get together on settlement
of the Formosa problem, but he added "this should not, however,
in the slightest degree affect the exercise by the Peoples' Republic
of China of its sovereign right to the liberation of Formosa."
According to the press, a spokesman for the Chinese
Nationalists has stated that they will negotiate on the Formosa issue
only in the United Nations, and only if Communist China takes part
as an accused aggressor and not as an equal.
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A.11. 11.41. UMW
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MINA -FORMOSA SIT UAT
Nautical miles �I
Statute miles o
23 April 1955
50 100
150
55 100 150
I I
-+ + +
Se I ected road
Rai I road
Proposed rail road
A
(5?
�
eq"
4111 OPERATIONAL
� A SERVICEABLE
� A UNKNOWN
� A OTHER
COMMUNIST AIRFIELD LEGEND
U SEA BILITY
RIG-IS, MIG-17, TU-4, IL--28
TU-2, IL-l0, LA-9/ I I, L1-2, etc.
unknown
Fields not considered capable of
sgopo rti ag sustained operations
at present.
* NATIONALISE- AINFIELO
DESIGNATIONS
PRI VARY: cons ide red most important in area, with prepared runway
generally 5000 feet or longer.
SECONDARY: auxiliary or emergency bases, or f 1 e I ds of lesser
importance-runways gene rk I If less than 5000 feet-
OPCHAT IONAL: consistently used by military 8, civilian aircraft.
',Fla/ I CEABLL : capable of use by aircraft.
UNKNOAIN: current status undete rm ined.
OTHCR: under construct ice, abandoned, or unserviceable.
H 0 NTAN
H U P TEH
HANKOW
HENGYANG
claraado.
� (Poet.) "
114
�
Hong Kong
(G.B.)
CHU
S 0 TT TH
CHINA
120
KIANG
vgabbblm
HANGC HOW
000 Regyilars
0O-Security
,
CHURE,IIEN
SHANGJAO
CHINHUA
A N G
LUCHIA
WENCH OW
12
32-
GHAI
CHOUSHAN
IS.
EAST CHINA
SEA
,?MATSUS
15,600
�
(A CH
Ifi4
O'Y 010UEMOY
co,5,800
0�F
R:4 PESCOOR
iormosa &
Pescadores
340,000 Troo
SEA
TAOYUAN
NSINCH0
TAIcHUNG
cHIAYI
TAINAN
PIN CT UN G
SUNGSNAN
118 122 � 122
PRESENTATIONS DIVISION
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