CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1958/05/23

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03192926
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 22
• Document Creation Date: January 27, 2020
• Document Release Date: January 30, 2020
• Publication Date: May 23, 1958

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23 May 1958
Copy No. 140
CENTRAL
INTELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
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23 MAY 1958
L THE COMMUNIST BLOC
Khrushchev may be planning harsh
campaign against Tito, an action
which would raise broader issue of
Moscow's control over satellites.
Some Soviet ground units may be on
alert status in Transcaucasus Mil-
itary District.
IL ASIA-AFRICA
Lebanon - Renewed efforts to unseat
Chamoun likely as political compromises
fail and fighting continues. UAR propa-
ganda increasingly anti-Western.
Indonesia First of Soviet IL-14
transport aircraft ordered by central
government have arrived.I
Malaya - Communist insurgents
surrendering at unusually high rate. 0
Laos - Military leaders considering
coup if conservatives do not unite
against Communists and allies.
0 Somalia - Anti-Western extremists
may have plan to bomb US Consulate
General.
North Africa - Clashes between
French and local forces in TUnisia
and Morocco raise possibility of
major incidents. French in Algeria
continue to defy Paris.
III. THE WEST
Pflimlin's call for vote on constitutional
reform issue is tactic to rally popular
support; not likely to reduce military op-
position.
Adenauer says he must have a summit
meeting for political reasons or clear
proof that the USSR is blocking one.
CI Panama - State of siege declared in
wake of riots and strike aimed at
overthrow of De la Guardia.
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
23 May 1958
DAILY BRIEF
I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC
Soviet-satellite relations: Khrushchev's reported re-
marks to Nasir that Tito is a "traitor" and that Stalin's
methods against him were correct reflect a more extreme
attitude toward Yugoslavia than has been suggested in any
Soviet propaganda thus far. If Khrushchev has decided to
launch an extremely vigorous anti-Yugoslav campaign, he
will have to insist on a higher degree of conformity from
the satellites. Should he fail in obtaining this, Moscow will
have to reassert more direct control. The extraordinary
meetings of the bloc leaders in Moscow this week may mark
a significant stage in a retreat from the generally flexible
Soviet policy toward the satellites highlighted at the 20th
Party Congress. 1 (Page 1)
Soviet military activity: The USSR may have alerted
some mftilary units, possibly in connection with Moscow's
public statements a
East.
at least sev-
re are protabIy inas e of operational
readiness as some Soviet units virPrp tinrina previous crises
in the Middle East. (Page 3) (Map)
II. ASIA-AFRICA
*Lebanon: Efforts to bring about a political compromise
have apparently failed. Renewed efforts by the opposition to
unseat President Chamoun may develop, and there are reports
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that some army leaders are considering action against Cha-
moun. The defense minister has resigned to protest the
cabinet's decision to take Lebanon's case against the UAR
to the UN Security Council. The dissidents captured
Balabakk on 21 May, and another dissident force is re-
ported moving westward, possibly toward Tripoli. Propa-
ganda from Cairo and Damascus is becoming more vehement
in its attacks on the Chamoun government and in its allega-
tions that Western powers are intervening in Lebanon.
(Paw 4) (Map)
�Watch Committee conclusion - Middle East: A delib.
erate initiation of hostilities in the Middle East is consid-
ered unlikely in the near future. However, serious incidents
are likely to recur. In Lebanon, where the continuing crisis
represents a threat to the existence of the state as presently
constituted, the opposition to Chamoun is being exploited by
a number of neutralist and anti-Western elements, including
UAR sympathizers and the Lebanese Communists. There is
no evidence available to indicate any intention by the Soviet
bloc, or by Israel to become involved militarily. There is
evidence of considerable intervention by the UAR, including
armed irregulars, but military dispositions do not indicate
an intention openly to intervene in force.
Indonesia: Four of the eleven Soviet 1L-14 aircraft en
route to Djakarta from Czechoslovakia arrived in Medan on
22 May.
five of the
six IL-14's observed in transit there on 21 May appeared to
be combat cargo or troop carrier types, fitted with brackets
possibly suited for rrdrop of cargo carried externally.
Watch Committee conclusion - Indonesia: Significant
numbers of Soviet bloc arms and technicians are arriving
in Indonesia. There are no developments indicating a Sino-
Soviet bloc intention to become directly involved in military
23 May 58
DAILY BRIEF ii
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operations in Indonesia. The situation continues to favor
local Communist and Sino-Soviet bloc exploitation. There
is, however, some evidence that this fact is becoming in-
creasingly recognized by certain Indonesian leaders.
-77,0
Malaya: Communist terrorists are surrendering at an
unusually high rate
not all these surrenders are the result of government
operations, suggesting that the change in Malayan Commu-
nist policy from one of terror to one of subversion--first
ordered in 1951--is being stepped up.
(Page 6)
Laos: Military leaders are seriously considering a
coup if conservative political elements are unable to form
a united front against the Communists and their allies.
(Page 7)
Somalia: The possibility that a small, anti -Western
elemeiit with he Somali Youth League may resort to violence
is suggested by a report that this group is planning to bomb
the USIS office in the American consulate general in Moga-
disci�. The plan may have been inspired by newsf recent
attacks on US installations in Lebanon. (Page 8)
North Africa: A clash between French and Tunisian
forces on 22 May and a reported French raid 40 miles in-
side Moroccan territory on 21 May are the type of incidents
which may presage major retaliatory action by the French.
In Algeria, French military and civilian leaders continue
their determinerLstandAnAmposition to the government in
Paris. (Page 9)
Watch Committee conclusion - North Africa: The re-
ported growing restlessness of French troops in Tunisia, to-
gether with the continued crisis in Algeria, is likely to lead
to serious incidents in Tunisian territory and set the stage
23 May 58
DAILY BRIEF iii
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for the internationalization of the present internal French-
Algerian problem. No evidence is yet available of Soviet
bloc efforts to exploit the current crisis in North Africa,
except in pronaganda.
III. THE WEST
*France: Pflimlin's decision to ask the National As-
sembly to vote on 23 May on the general desirability of
amending the constitution to strengthen the executive is a
tactic intended to gain more support from the French public.
Constitutional reform is regarded by most Frenchmen as
the best way to revitalize the Fourth Rephblic. A press re-
port that De Gaulle might--under certain conditions--accept
Pinay's plea to mediate between Paris and Algiers may also
tend to reduce rightist pressures against Pflimlin. None of
this maneuvering seems likely to affect the attitude of the
military, who remain opposed to Pflimlin; but they are not
known to be considering any imminent action against the
government. (Page 10)
West Germany: Adenauer has told the American Am-
bassador that he is concerned over the course of negotiations
for a summit meeting. He insists that for domestic political
reasons he must have such a meeting or else a clear demonstra-
tion for the West German public that Moscow is blocking it. He
also believed that the anti-nuclear weapons campaign of his
political opponents in West Germany is more successful than
he had previously expected. Psage 11)
Panama: Widespread rioting in parts of Panama City
adjacent to the Canal Zone and a general strike against the
government led President de la Guardia to declare a state
of siege on 22 May. Thus far there have been no anti-Amer-
ican overtones in the disturbances. Powerful opposition
23 May 58
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DAILY BRIEF
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politicians are known to be promoting the riots in an effort
to oust moderate de la Guardia. These politicians have
been behind the recent campaigns for greater ret-orrniti7n
of Panamanian claims in the Canal Zone.
(Page 12)
23 May 58
DAILY BRIEF
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L THE COMMUNIST BLOC
Moscow Bloc Meeting Probably Coordinating Action
Against Yugoslavia
Yugoslav officials now have concluded, against the
background of the extraordinary bloc meeting in Moscow
this week, that Khrushchev has decided to take a progres-
sively harder and more aggressive line against them. As
yet, it appears unlikely that the more extreme measures
taken in bloc countries adjacent to Yugoslavia after the
1948 break, such as threatening military moves and depor-
tation of minorities of Yugoslav descent, will be reinstituted,
and Soviet propaganda has not reached the 1948 level of
vituperation. Khrushchev's reported remark to Nasir,
however, that Tito is a "traitor" and that Stalin's methods
against him were correct, if translated into official policy
would appear to call for an exceptionally vigorous Soviet re-
taliation against Tito.
The extraordinary meetings in Moscow this week may
mark a significant stage in the retreat from the generally
flexible Soviet policy toward the satellites highlighted at
the Soviet 20th party congress. Coordination of bloc action
against Yugoslavia, as well as practical measures to tighten
bloc unity and economic integration, will probably require
the USSR to insist on a higher degree of conformity among
the satellites, and, failing this, to reassert more direct
controls.
The emphasis by Soviet papers on the party rather than
government roles of the assembled bloc leaders in Moscow
suggests that the meeting has political as well as economic
purposes. The presence in Moscow of at least three Soviet
ambassadors to the satellites further highlights the impor-
tance of the meeting.
The meeting puts Poland in a particularly vulnerable
position. Moscow probably is attempting to force Gomulka
into such close alignment with the bloc on the Yugoslavia
SECRET
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issue that his compliance would compromise his position
that every Communist country must control its own in-
ternal affairs, the keystone of his Polish road to socialism.
Gotnulka is likely to continue to resist any attempts to in-
fringe on his internal control in Poland, despite being under
more,-severe pressure than ever before.
--SEC-REX_
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(
OL ND
UNGAR
RUMANIA
BULGARIA
BLACK SEA
1SRAE
� KUTAISI
M I I...ES 8?0,
AFGHANISTAN
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Soviet Units in the Transcaucasus Military District Alerted
As early as 2 May, the headquarters of the 11th Tactical
Air Army may have assumed direct control of its fighter divi-
sions. These divisions are normally controlled by the Tiflis
Air Defense District Headquarters in the Transcaucasus.
Such a shift in control was noted during the autumn of 1957,
and in the Suez crisis as well.
The USSR has avoided committing itself publicly to a
course of action in the Middle East and has limited itself to
political propaganda aimed at inhibiting Western action.
There has been no indication that the USSR intends to inter-
vene militarily. Political propaganda has increased since
the announcement of American support for Lebanon on 15 May
but has not yet risen to the level of intensity reached during
the Middle East crisis last fall.
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Baniyas
MEDITERRANEAN
SEA
Bayt ad Din�
Sidon
ISRAEL
F'sa
Marjuyun
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�30 inch pipeline
Hams
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Al Harmal,
BalabakV"..
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Damascus
12 inch pipeline
.:16 inch pipeline
YR IA
30-31 inch Pipeline
Selected Roads
TO JORDAN &
SAUDI ARABIA
20 40 60
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II. ASIA-AFRICA
The Crisis In Lebanon
Efforts to resolve the political crisis have failed so
far, and action by some army leaders to unseat President
Chamoun is reported under consideration. The decision by
the Lebanese cabinet to take its case against UAR interven-
tion to the UN Security Council has apparently precipitated
the resignation of the minister of defense, a follower of Min-
ister of Finance Piere Edde. Other resignations, including
Edde's, may ensue.
Armed tribesmen and Baathist elements, reported to
be accompanied by a small number of Syrian fedayin, cap-
tured Balabakk and burned the city hall on 21 May. Another
rebel force including Syrian army personnel in mufti is said
to be moving from the al-Harmal region over the mountains
toward the Akkar area. This group may head toward
Tripoli, or swing down into the Biqa Valley toward Balabakk.
The Bayt ad-Din situation remains unchanged following a
"truce" between government and insurgent forces. Opposition
forces accompanied by an estimated 200-300 UAR army men
are moving in the direction of Marjuyun. Moslem opposition
leader Rashid ICaramah and other traditional local leaders
have lost effective political control of -the situation in Tripoli,
and the city is now dominated by leftist elements, according
to an anti-Chamoun Moslem leader.
Cairo and Damascus radios have stepped up their propa-
ganda battle against the Lebanese Government and the Unitqd
States during the past 48 hours. The:Damascus radio has
openly called on Lebanese Druze to support the opposition.
Committees for relief, propaganda, and contributions have
been established in Damascus "to coordinate work and ensure
contacts with nationalist leaders in Lebanon." Reports are
being circulated that "volunteers" for the "preservation of
Lebanon's independence" are petitioning Interior Minister
Sarraj to be "allowed to fight alongside the Lebanese people"
against the Chamoun government and any outside intervention.
---SEeRET
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A Cairo broadcast has appeared to the Lebanese security
forces to defect from Chamoun and his "gangs." Damascus
radio on 22 May declared, "Everyone knows that the rulers
of Lebanon are killing the Lebanese people at American in-
stigation."
Lebanese authorities seized a vessel making
for Beirut with six men and machine guns, possibly coming
either from Gaza to Syria.
Israeli forces would carry out "military moves on e
Lebanese frontier" to intimidate the "Lebanese populace,"'
but that the moves were not believed a prelude to "war-like"
action.
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CONFIDENTIAL ;*
Increasing Rate of Communist Surrenders in Malaya
The Federation of Malaya on 28 May will announce the
defection of 100 Malayan Communist party terrorists in the
state of Perak during the past few months, the highest rate
yet achieved. These defections followed a major security
operation which involved the return to the jungle of defected
Communist officials who induced their comrades to surren-
der. A similar operation which is still under way in the state
of Johore is having comparable success but is not being pub-
licized. In addition to these defections, other surrenders
are now higher than normal.
the surrenders were not necessarily all induced
by government military pressure. the Malayan
Communists are now accelerating implementation of the de-
cision, taken in 1951 but only slowly implemented, to switch
strategy from terrorism to subversion. Under present gov-
ernment amnesty terms, those terrorists who surrender and
demonstrate their loyalty to the Malayan Government will not
be prosecuted for any "emergency-connected" offense com-
mitted before 1 September 1957, and will be helped to regain
a normal place in society.
Although it appears highly unlikely that the Malayan Com-
munist party will surrender formally in the near future, the
party undoubtedly regards the shift of selected individuals
from terrorism to subversion as advantageous. It is con-
ceivable, however, that the party, rather than accept what
it regards as unfavorable surrender terms, will continue and
accelerate the individual surrenders to the point of virtual
cessation of military activity.

CONFIDENTIAL
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Possibility of Military Coup in Laos
Laotian military circles are considering a coup d'etat
to prevent Laos from falling under Communist domination.
Most of the army's top officers are reportedly involved in
preliminary planning under the direction of Defense Minis-
ter Ngon Sananikone. The army chief of staff claims that
he has "bluntly" warned conservative political leaders to
unite against the threat posed by the Communist Neo Lao
Hak Zat (NLHZ) or face an army "take-over."
The army is increasingly concerned that the conserva-
tives have made no perceptible progress since the elections
toward submerging their differences. The new government
will Probably be essentially the same as the outgoing one un-
der Premier Souvanna Phouma, unless the Communists choose
to precipitate a cabinet crisis in the hope of forcing new gen-
eral elections. There are indications that Prince Souvan-
nouvong, the leader of the NLHZ, has become extremely in-
fluential in the cabinet. Communist infiltration into govern-
ment ministries has been stepped up.
Although the military leaders can probably overthrow the
cabinet by a coup at any time, their ability to provide stable
government is questionable. Their potential political allies
are already divided, and they may not be able to count on the
full support of the troops under their command. The 24,000-
man Laotian Army is not highly disciplined, and many of its
men reportedly voted recently for leftist candidates. More
than two battalions formerly served with the Pathet Lao.
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Somali Extremists Threaten to Bomb USIS Library
In Mogadiscio
A small number of young Somali extremists are
planning. as a gesture against the West, to bomb or set fire
to the USIS library located in the American Consulate Gen-
eral in Moaadiscio,
the plan was inspired by extensive reports in
the Mogadiscio press of the destruction of installations in
Lebanon.
The American consul general, who minimizes the pos-
sibility of such an incident, informed the Italian and Somali
authorities and received a promise of extra protection from
the police, who are investigating.
The young extremists may be interpreting the call of
the pro-Egyptian president of the Somali Youth League for
a "gesture" against the West as a demand for action. Cairo
has pursued a tough anti-Western propaganda line in Somalia
for several years, using radio broadcasts, teachers and
other agents, but, the present plot
does Pt appear to involve Egyptians.
s
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North African Situation
The clash between French and Tunisian military
forces on 22 May at Gafsa in central Tunisia and the re-
ported French air and ground raid on a Moroccan post
40 miles inside Moroccan territory are the sort of inci-
dents which might trigger a major French retaliatory
effort against Tunisia and Morocco. Consul General
Lyon in Algiers has reiterated that the danger has in-
creased because of the absence of restraint by civilian
authorities in Algiers. French-Tunisian difficulties
at Remada in remote southern Tunisia, he said, could
Incite French forces in Algeria to move into Tunisia
"to teach them a lessbno" a move which would be highly
popular in Algiers.
The 22 May clash occurred when Tunisian forces,
on instructions from Tunis, vainly attempted to prevent
the take-off of four"-French jet aircraft which had arrived
in Gafsa on 21 May for reconnaissance in connection with
the Remada incident. The French commander at Remada
on 17 and g1 May ordered his troops to take up at least two
positions outside the base tvthere they technically have been
confined since 8 February.
the I, rench commander in chief in Tunisia
not only canceled orders to the Remada unit to withdraw from
these new positions, but also ordered ohservatin7 aircraft
and fighters to Gafsa.
Although details of the Moroccan incident are not avail-
able, the Paris government has expressed anxiety over the
situation of French troops in Morocco. A Foreign Ministry
spokesman claimed that the French commander, in Morocco
was not as cool-headed as the commander in Tunisia, and
that M rocco's demands that troops be confined to their bar-
rac might result in incidents.
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The French Crisis
Premier Pflimlin's personal staff chief estimates the
government's chances of surviving the present crisis at 50-50,
with the next 8 to 10 days as the most crucial period. The
Paris embassy notes that Pflimlin has now imposed his will
on his government, Earticularly since the Socialists , after
their initial demoralization, have rallied firmly to him. The
Independent party minority which has been supporting Pflimlin,
however, now seems inclined to withhold their votes on the
next important issuer that comes before the National Assem-
bly, thus making him dependent on Communist support, a de-
velopment which would probably lead him to resign. A press
report that General de Gaulle might--with certain conditions--
accept Independent Pinay's plea that he mediate between Paris
and Algiers may help reduce rightist pressure on Pflimlin.
The cabinet's decision to ask the assembly to vote 23
May on the desirability of amending the constitution to
strengthen the executive and to call later for a vote of con-
fidence on the text of specific amendments may be a tactic
intended to rally more support from the hitherto apathetic
public. Constitutional reform has been regarded by most
French as the panacea for the ills of the Fourth Republic.
The 23 May vote will not bind the deputies to anything spe-
cific, however, and the fundamental differences on this
question will re-emerge when Pflimlin presents the amend-
ments later.
None of this maneuvering seems likely to affect the at-
titude of the military, who continue to oppose Pflimlin, but
are not known to be considering any imminent action against
the government. Defense Minister Chevigne is devoting all
his efforts to assessing the loyalty of commanders and units in
metropolitan France. Interior Minister Moch is reported doing
likewise in the security forces, possibly motivated by his belief
that the police and national gendarmerie are not completely re-
liable. Although the government', in its effort to win back the
allegiance of the military, has been conciliatory towards the
Algiers officers, the possibility thiat younger officers may
precipitate some form of rash action is a continuing danger.
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Time Nu"
Adenauer Concerned Over Summit Meeting
Chancellor Adenauer informed Ambassador Bruce on 20
May that he is concerned over the prospects for a summit con-
ference. He believes that continued stress on unification in
connection with the Soviet violation of 1955 Geneva Conference
decisions is creating an "unnecessarily bad atmosphere" for
negotiations.
Adenauer is convinced that Khrushchev wants a summit
meeting and needs it to strengthen his domestic position. The
chancellor is apparently influenced by German Ambassador
Kroll's report that on 19 May Khrushchev stressed a desire
for a summit meeting and indicated there was nothing to keep
the Western powers from bringing up German unification under
a general heading such as a German peace treaty.
Adenauer said that for domestic political reasons, he
must either have a summit meeting or be able to convince
the German public that Moscow is blocking it. He feels
that the campaign against nuclear weapons in West Germany
is more successful than was expected, and apparently fears
its effect on the five forthcoming state elections, which will
determine control of the upper house.
Ambassador Bruce feels that, while Adenauer continues
to support US policies in Europe, he is relying less and less
on Foreign Ministry advisers and this will make him more un-
predtable in the future.
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State of Siege in Panama
The 22 May riots in Panama against President de la
Guardia's administration have led him to declare a state of
siege and may erupt into full-scale revolution. The strong
national guard, whose repression of student demonstrations
earlier this week resulted in one death and widespread and
violent resentment, has announced that: it is slowly te`-
gaining dontrol_ of Panama,, City. The guard has orders
to kill. The students have been joined in a general strike
against the government by labor unions and other groups, but
appear to have lost control of the disturbance to hoodlums.
The latter are probably incited by powerful opposition politi-
cians like Harmodio Arias who are trying to oust the Pres-
ident. Similar riots are occurring in Colon, the northern
terminus of the canal.
Although there has been no evidence of anti-US senti-
ments thus far, Arias and others have led recent agitation
for greater US concessions to Panama in the Canal Zone, and
may raise the issue to further arouse the mob. Much of the
fighting is close to the zone and any incident with US forces
now stationed along the boundary would undoubtedly be given
disproportionate emphasis.
De la Guardia is not strong politically and cannot count
on complete loyalty within his own cabinet or party coalition,
where he is considered too moderate in his dealings with the
United States. The national, guard, which is generally regard-
ed by Panamanians as brutal and corrupt, has been his main
source of strength.
SECRET
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