CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1957/11/23

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03192684
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2019
• Document Release Date: December 20, 2019
• Publication Date: November 23, 1957

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I.
CURRENT
INTELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
23 November 1957
Copy No. 13s
DOCUMErr NO.
NO GPM' :0 CLASS.
;
OLA6S. C ANOED TO: IS
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
AUTH:i
. 7
DATE
FIEVIEWER:
3.5(c)
3.3(h)(2)
OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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114,
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CONTENTS
OL-le._ 1. PEIPING MAY JOIN WARSAW PACT AND GET MODERN
ARMS FROM USSR (page 3).
11-0
2. SOVIET-EGYPTIAN ECONOMIC AGREEMENT
(page 4).
3. FRENCH INTENTIONS IN UN ALGERIAN DEBATE
(page 5).
4.
ISRAELI AND JORDANIAN
TO JERUSALEM TENSION
GOVERNMENT
REACTION
(page 6).
ILO
5.
JORDAN'S KING HUSSAYN
ASKS IRAQI AND
SAUDI
MILITARY COMMITMENT
(page 7).
ete-
6.
INDIAN FINANCE MINISTER
DESCRIBES PROJECTED
PLAN
CUTS IN SECOND FIVE-YEAR
(page 8).
11,0
7.
INSURGENT SITUATION IN
BURMA
(page 9).
e9-0Q.
8.
SOUTH KOREA AGAIN IMPEDES PROGRESS
IN TALKS
WITH JAPAN (page 10).
9-,e_ 9. NORTH KOREA TO RELEASE SOUTH KOREAN FISHERMEN
(page 11).
14:
10. AUSTRIAN GOVERNMENT CONCERNED OVER
SOUTH TYROL (page 12).
11. POLITICAL TENSION MOUNTS IN HAITI
(page 13).
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1. PEIPING MAY JOIN WARSAW PACT AND GET MODERN
ARMS FROM USSR
Chinese participation in the Warsaw
pact might be part of the bloc's answer to current Western
moves to strengthen NATO. A "strengthened" Warsaw pact
was one of the objectives enumerated
by Communist leaders on 22 November. Peiping's mem-
bership might presage the stationing of specialized Soviet
units in China while Chinese units are acquiring proficiency
in modern weapons.
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2. SOVIET-EGYPTIAN ECONOMIC AGREEMENT
Comment on:
The initiative for the recently announced
Egyptian-Soviet economic agreement came
from Cairo,
President
Nasir, following a study of Egypt's five-
year development plan, felt it would be a
"fiasco" without outside assistance, and
instructed Minister of Defense General
Amir to approach the USSR, which had not previously extended
significant economic aid.
Nasir expressed
concern over Western reaction to the agreement. He con-
siders it an arrangement which will allow him credit for ob-
taining capital goods as needed in fulfilling the five-year plan
and "hopes" the West will "go along" so that he can obtain
half of these reauirements from the USSR and half from the
West. Nasir did not make clear
whether the USSR agreed to this. Nash regards the agree-
ment as more comparable to the Soviet credit for India than
to the Soviet-Syrian economic development agreement. Un-
like the Syrian agreement With the USSR, the loan avoids
suggesting that the USSR assume responsibility for the
economic development of Egypt.
The announced agreement specifies that
machinery, factories, and industrial equipment worth over
$175,000,000 will be provided under a 12- to 15-year, 2. 5-
percent loan. Nasir is
studying a Soviet offer of jet military aircraft and a Soviet-
proposed gift of a civil aircraft, presumably a jet, for use
by the Egyptian national airline.
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3. FRENCH INTENTIONS IN UN ALGERIAN DEBATE
Comment on:
France regards as "totally unaccept-
able" any UN resolution which would
inject Tunisia and Morocco into the
Algerian situation as negotiators, ac-
cording to French Foreign Minister Pineau. France, how-
ever, would probably be able to accept a slightly stronger
resolution than last year's, which merely expressed the Gen-
eral Assembly's hope that a peaceful, democratic, and just
solution could be found.
Pineau said that his statement when
the debate opens next week will be moderate in tone and
will reaffirm France's readiness to negotiate a cease-fire
without political preconditions. However, since the Algeri-
an debate in the French National Assembly coincides with
the UN debate on the question, Pineau is confronted with
the problem of presenting France's case in terms Which
will sound attractive to the UN without causing an explosion
at home over the basic statute.
Some of the more moderate members
of the Asian-African bloc have been interested in keeping
the Algerian debate as mild as possible by such a device as
a resolution recommending Tunisian and Moroccan media-
tion. Outright rejection by France of these efforts might
� result in a concerted attack on France by the more volatile
members of this bloc. In any event, the general atmos-
phere at the UN this year is not so favorable to France
as that of last year and this could result in a protracted
and bitter debate.
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4. ISRAELI AND JORDANIAN GOVERNMENT REACTION
TO JERUSALEM TENSION
Reference:
Israeli Foreign Minister Meir says her
government will not submit to "black-
mail" in the dispute with Jordan over
whether gasoline should be permitted
among supplies carried by Israel's reg-
ular convoy in support of its caretaker
"police" force on Mt. Scopus overlook-
ing Jerusalem. However, in a conversa-
tion with the American ambassador, Mrs.
Meir expressed Israel's "sincere desire"
that Jordan's King Hussayn not be weak-
ened by trouble on this point and that the
status quo in Jordan be maintained. She said, "We pray for
Hussayn even though we may not like him."
King Hussayn stated earlier that he has
no intention of permitting the convoy to cross the border
with gasoline but that he does not plan to commit new troops
to the Mt. Scopus area, since that would only touch off an
incident. After inspecting the Israeli position on Mt. Scopus,
UN truce officials are convinced that the gasoline is intended
for a legitimate use and accordingly are attempting to obtain
Jordan's agreement to pass the convoy with the gasoline.
Meanwhile, two Israelis were killed by
Jordanian border guards on 21 November after penetrating
12 miles into Jordan.
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5. JORDAN'S KING HUSSAYN ASKS IRAQI AND SAUDI
MILITARY COMMITMENT
Comment on:
Jordan's King Hussayn is disturbed over
the possibility of trouble on the Israeli
border
on 22 November asked that
Iraq be prepared to come to his aid quickly with military
forces if Hussayn should call for help. The request appears
to be precautionary, and there is as yet no indication that the
entry of Iraqi troops is imminent.
Hussayn's concern has been heightened
by the possibility that if serious trouble developed on the
Israeli border, Syria and Egypt might offer to send in troops,
an offer the King feels he would be unable to refuse.
once Syrian and Egyptian troops
were inside Jordan they would never go home. Hussayn has
also indicated that he intends to advise the Saudi ambassador
of his fears and ask that the Saudis, too, be prepared to
respond quickly to any call for assistance.
Hussayn's requests may also have been
prompted by his fear of increased subversion inspired by
Egypt and Syria.
Jordanian security units have been alerted to the
possibility of an Egyptian-inspired uprising in West Jordan
some time after 23 November.
Hussayn's request to Iraq is probably in
response to recent urging by former Iraqi Prime Minister
Nun i Said Cat 3ordan ask for a ".origade of Iraqi troops, which
wouldlin n7zi's view, have a "stabilizing and encouraging ef-
fect" on the Jordanian population.
only one battalion is now stationed at
pumping station H-3, about 50 miles from the Jordanian
border. Saudi Arabia already has about 3,000 troops in
central Jordan west of Amman, and a smaller force in the
Maan-Aqaba area in southern Jordan.
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6. INDIAN FINANCE MINISTER DESCRIBES PROJECTED
CUTS IN SECOND FIVE-YEAR PLAN
Comment on:
Indian Finance Minister Krishnamachari
on 21 November gave the Indian parlia-
ment the first firm indications of cuts
the government intends to make in the
Second Five-Year Plan. He stated that
while strenuous efforts will be made to preserve "hard-
core" programs involving railways, major ports, steel,
coal, and ancillary power, certain power projects and one
or two of three planned fertilizer projects probably will
have to be dropped. He listed increased defense spending
outside the plan, which required a high percentage of for-
eign exchange, as one of the causes necessitating cuts.
According to Krishnamachari, the gov-
ernment hopes to have a clear picture of plan financing,
specific cuts to be made, and priorities of various schemes
by the middle of parliament's next budget session�probably
In March.
Krishnamachari indicated that the ex-
tent of the reductions depends largely on the availability
of foreign aid and on whether food production will increase
satisfactorily during the plan period. Since India expects
to suffer a major food shortage in the spring of 1958
Krishnamachari's caution is probably well founded.
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7. INSURGENT SITUATION IN BURMA
Comment on:
The recent surrender of 105 Communists
and 135 Karen insurgents, and press re-
ports that more groups are to follow, may
represent an important breakthrough in
the Burmese government's nine-year struggle to establish law
and order throughout the country.
no indication that the
Communist and Karen high commands are ready to accept
the government's terms of unconditional surrender, these
defectors--coupled with the generosity with which the gov-
ernment is treating those who lay down their arms--will
have a serious effect on insurgent morale and will encourage
additional mass desertions. In this connection, the spokes-
man for the surrendering Communists has publicly stated
that the Burma Communist party was in error in insisting
on a negotiated settlement, as opposed to outright surrender,
and even questioned the correctness of the party's original
decision to go into armed rebellion in 1648.
The Communist leadership and some
Karens are campaigning for an "honorable" negotiated
settlement, and Thakin Kodaw Hmaing, Burma's fellow-
traveling "grand old man of letters," as received the gov-
ernment's permission to meet unofficially with the insur-
gents in an effort to learn their latest peace terms. Such
a meeting could be a prelude to direct peace talks between
the government and the insurgents. The government, en-
couraged by the surrenders, probably will be in no mood
to soften its terms.
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G. SOUTH KOREA AGAIN IMPEDES PROGRESS IN TALKS
WITH JAPAN
Comment on:
The settlement of outstanding issues
between South Korea and Japan again
appears to have been blocked by Seoul's
stubbornness. Although President Rhee
on 13 November accepted "without reservation" the US mem-
orandum calling for mutual renunciation of claims, his rep-
resentatives in Tokyo have reasserted that the memo "does
not impair" Korean claims against Japan. While demon-
strating willingness to accept two minor Korean changes in
the proposed preliminary agreement, Tokyo insists on full
mutual acceptance of the American proposal.
According to Ambassador MacArthur,
the present impasse stems from an indiscretion on the part
of a Japanese Foreign Ministry official who implied that
Korea's claims were still negotiable. When it was revealed
that he was not authorized to negotiate with the Koreans and
did not represent Tokyo's official position, the Koreans cited
the affair as another illustration of Japan's "untrustworthi-
ness."
While this development considerably
dims prospects for reopening full-scale negotiations, the
Korean negotiators have indicated that there is still some
"give" in their position.
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9. NORTH KOREA TO RELEASE SOUTH KOREAN FISHERMEN
Comment on:
North Korea's delegate to the Military
Armistice Commission has informed
the South Korean ininister of defense
that Pyongyang will release 47 fisher-
men recently captured by two northern
patrol boats.
The seizure of the fishermen and their
eight boats has aroused indignation in the South Korean
press, and release of the fishermen would not rule out
southern aggressive action. The South Koreans intend
to reinforce their patrols on the east coast and have moved
the permissible area of operations for South Korean fishing
boats northward toward the armistice line, thereby increas-
ing the likelihood that southern vessels will enter northern
waters and touch off naval clashes. Seoul may also decide
to step up its efforts to intercept British and Japanese ship-
ping attempting to trade with North Korea.
In contrast to South Korean belligerence,
Pyongyang is presenting its decision to return the fishermen
as a fraternal gesture designed to improve North-South re-
lations.
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10. AUSTRIAN GOVERNMENT CONCERNED OVER SOUTH TYROL
Comment on:
Demonstrations by rival ethnic groups
in the Italian South Tyrol have evidently
Increased pressure on the Vienna gov-
ernment to take the South Tyrolean issue
to some international forum such as the Council of Europe
or the UN. The 1946 Austro-Italian agreement, recognizing
Italian sovereignty over the South Tyrol, provided various
cultural guarantees for the Germanic population. The Ger-
manic areas, however, have bitterly resented being admin-
istratively linked with the predominantly Italian Trentino,
and both the Austrian government and public appear con-
vinced that Italian policy is deliberately designed to Italian-
ize the area.
Transfer of the dispute to an internation-
al forum would not only give it increased prominence but, in
the case of a UN hearing, might also result in Soviet bloc,
neutralist, and African-Asian exploitation of the issue.
While the Austrians are aware of the disadvantages this
might involve for Western unity and would prefer to keep the
problem in a bilateral framework, government officials told
the American embassy in Vienna on 21 November they fear
the situation may reach the point where this approach will
not satisfy the South Tyroleans,
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11. POLITICAL TENSION MOUNTS IN HAITI
Comment on:
Growing discontent in Haiti with the
government's subservience to the
army and with its failure to provide
a program which would alleviate the
country's acute economic distress is
threatening the month-old regime of
President Francois Duvalier. Opposi-
tion leaders, incensed by arbitrary
arrests of their followers, may ex-
ploit the growing popular dissension
by attempting a move against the government.
The basic problem besetting Duvalier,
whose personal popularity is great, is his dependence on the
powerful army chief of staff, Brig. Gen. Antonio Kebreau.
Kebreau, who is credited with having engineered Duvalier's
election, has been largely responsible for Haiti's recent ef-
forts for closer ties with and possible economic aid from
the Dominican Republic, Venezuela, and Cuba, instead of
the United States.
The opposition, led by defeated
presidential candidates Louis Dejoie and Clement Jumelle,
may try to drive a wedge between Duvalier and Kebreau and
between Kebreau and his supporters in the army. The gov-
ernment's chances of surviving without army support would
be small.
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