CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1959/06/23

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Keywords: 2018 Sanitization
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03191554
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: February 25, 2020
• Document Release Date: February 27, 2020
• Publication Date: June 23, 1959

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23 June 1959
Lopy No. c 62
CENTRAL
INTELLIG-FNCE
BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO.
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23 JUNE 1959
I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC
Bad weather and floods threaten Chi-
nest Communist agricultural program.
II. ASIA-AFRICA
Cairo's consultants reject Soviet con-
struction plans for Aswan Dam; Moscow
indicates it will proceed with any plan ap-
proved by UAR.
India�Nehru% pacification efforts ham-
pering opposition campaign to force
Communists out of Kerala government.
Friction growing between Dalai Lama
and New Delhi; his recent press state-
ments made over Indian objections.
III. THE WEST
Labor party under some pressure to
advocate renunciation of nuclear weap-
ons by Britain.
West Germany--US Embassy comments
on Adenauer-Erhard breach.
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0 Caribbean--Haitian armed forces placed
on alert amid rumors of invasion; pos-
sible additional landings in Dominican
Republic.
LATE ITEM
@Belgian Congo--New outbreaks feared.
ritt7,
China, is in danger of inundation. The flood follows bad wealer
which hampered the wheat harvest in Central and North China.
These setbacks and the failure of some of Peiping's "leap for-
ward" agricultural programs are compelling the regime to back
off from its extravagantly optimistic forecasts for this year's
crops. (Page 1)
II. ASIA-AFRICA
UAR-USSR: The Soviet construction plans for the Aswan
High Dam have ben rejected by Egypt's international High Dam
Consulting Boards according to an American member of the
board, A major portion of the Soviet plans was dismissed by
the board as "untried and unsafe." Cairo now must decide
whether to follow the consultants' recommendations or accept
the Soviet plans. In a recent press announcement the USSR,
apparently anticipating a rejection, claimed Moscow was pre-
pared to implement the project in accordance with any plan
the UAR experts approve. The USSR claims its plan Would
be the most economical and the least time consuming.)
India:- The Communist administration of India'd Kerala
State continues under pressure from united opposition groups
seeking its downfall. Demonstrations are occurring almost
daily, although the opposition attack appears to have lost some
of its momentum. High leaders of the Congress party, includ-
ing Prime Minister Nehru, are visiting the state to investigate
the situation. The Congress party high command apparently is
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not strongly backing the local opposition campaign. Nehru's
pacification efforts could result in further weakening the cam-
paign and making it more difficult to force the Communists out
of office. The national leaders of the Praja Socialist party--
the Congress' major ally in Kerala--are concerned over this
possibility and are meeting on 25 June to consider a course of
action. (Page 2)
Dalai Lama: The references to Tibetan autonomy and in-
dependence made the Dalai Lama at his 20 June press con-
ference were made against the wishes of the Indian Governmen
which made last-minute efforts to have them withheld. This
may increase friction between the Lama and New Delhi regard-
ing his future activities ks
from Peiping/
(Page 3)
III. THE WEST
Britain: he Labor party and trade-union leadership meets
on 23 June to onsider how to deal with the growing pressure
within the Labor movement, including pressure from tradition-
ally right-wing trade unions, to advocate unilateral renunciation
of nuclear weapons by Britain. Although party leaders, includ-
ing Bevan, are not expected to make any major change in their
policy of opposition to unilateral nuclear disarmament, a tactica
shift that would not tie the hands of a possible future Labor gov-
ernment may become necessary to preserve party unity before
the coming general elections. Such a tactical Labor shift would
increase the already considerable pressure on the Macmillan
government to achieve an agreement to suspend nuclear tests)
(Page 4)
*West Germany: The US Embassy in Bonn believes that
Adenauer in continuing his bitter attacks on Economics Min-
ister Erhard, is intent on destroying Erhard's, standing in the
Christian Democratic party and eliminating him as a possible
successor. Erhard's weak defense has cost him support, and
23 June 59
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forces on a full nationwide alert. This move was prorrp ted by
0
Caribbean: The Haitian uovernment nas piaceci tne armed
0
an explosion and fire at army headquarters in Port-au-Prince
0 on 21 June and by rumors of imminent landings on e north
r the
through Haiti or by Haitian exiles attempting to take advantage 0
coast. The landings might be made either by Dominican rev-
olutionaries attempting to invade the Dominican Republic
of the situation. (Page 5)
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his strongest supporter, Bundestag President Gerstenmaier,
has ruled out any reconciliation. Despite party efforts to re-
store harmony, Ambassador Bruce believes the dispute has
"left permanent scars" and that, although Adenauer can con-
tinue to dominate the party, it will be with dimipished author-
ity.
LATE ITEM
*Belgian Congo: Nationalist-inspired disorders may occur
in Leopoldville withilrthe next few days if the Belgians do not
satisfy African demands for the early establishment of a regional
"Republic of Central Kongo,"
The Africans are led by Joseph Kasavubu. who Waved
an important role in the riots last January.
the native city is tense and that "whole-
sale violence" against the 20,000-odd whites may result)
(Page 6)
23 June 59
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I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC
Bad Weather in China
The rich, rice-producing Pearl River delta in Kwangtung
Province is threatened by what Peiping says is a "once-in-a-
century" flood which may also engulf Canton, South China's
largest city. Excessive rains have already caused floods
and loss of property and crops in the province and in neighbor-
ing Kwangsi and Fukien. Flooding in low-lying tidal areas--
such as the Pearl River delta�will be aggravated by the
abnormally high tides accompanying the summer solstice. Mil-
lions of peasants have been mobilized to raise and reinforce
dikes. Military and civilian aircraft, naval and merchant vessels
have been pressed into service to carry relief supplies and rescue
those marooned by high waters.
Earlier in the month Peiping was complaining of damage
caused by hail, rain, and windstorms in important winter wheat
regions of Central and North China and by persisting drought in
Manchuria.
It is still too early to assess the damage done by bad weather
to crops and food supplies. The leadership has good reason to
overplay the extent of this year's natural calamities as a hedge
against failure to reach overly ambitious farm targets. Even be-
fore the present run of unfavorable weather started, it was ap-
parent that some of the regime's farm policies were not yielding
anticipated results.
At least two important agricultural provinces have acknowledged
that production goals set early in the year would not be reached.
Although Peiping has not yet retracted on its target of producing
525,000,000 tons of food grains this year, it has admitted that
early grain crops will be no larger than last year's.
23 June 59
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 1
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IL ASIA-AFRICA
The Situation in Kerala
The campaign led by anti-Communist political and religious
groups to bring about the fall of the Communist government of
India's Kerala State appears to be approaching a point of crisis.
Demonstrations are occurring almost daily, with some 32000
persons arrested to date, and two deaths were reported over the
past week end. Prime Minister Nehru apparently is not strongly
supporting the Congress party units in Kerala, however, and his
doubts concerning the constitutionality of the agitation may cause
the campaign to lose much momentum. This could result in the
Communists' continuing to stand firm, as they have to date. It
could also discredit the Congress and Praja Socialist parties,
which have led the political agitation, and make it difficult for
them to initiate another "all-out" effort against the Communists
in the future
The state elements of the Congress party and the younger
national party leaders are still firmly convinced of the need to
oust the Communists by all possible means while feeling is run-
ning high. Nehru, however, arrived in Kerala for a three-day
visit the day before a new round of agitation was to have begun.
His publicized plans to talk to members of the Communist admin-
istration, as well as rumors that he may ask the Congress party
to call off its agitation in favor of a round-table discussion, may
delay further agitation while people wait to see what his visit pro-
duces. National leaders of the Praja Socialist party�the Congress'
major ally in Kerala--apparently fear that the Congress may let
them down; they plan to meet in Coimbatore, Mysore State, on
25 June to discuss the situation. PSP leader Thanu Pillai said on
18 June that if the Congress party withdrew from the direct-action
movement, it would only help to perpetuate Communist "misrule"
in Kerala.
If further violence does not occur, and if the anti-Communist
campaign loses additional momentum, Nehru would find it diffi-
cult to institute President's Rule--direct rule from New Delhi--
in Kerala on grounds of a breakdown of law and order.
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a.r.,t,rai,
Dalai Lama's Statement Disturbs Indian Officials
6everal references in the Dalai Lama's statement on Tibet
at his press conference on 20 June were considerably more out-
spoken than Indian officials had recommended and may create
friction between him and New Delhi cone rning the duration of
his stay and his future activities in India,.)
The Dalai Lama had prepared three different texts for the
press conference statement, and not until 19 June did he choose
the final version. His condemnation of Peiping and his proposals
regarding the future of Tibet were less strong than the Lama
desired but were far stronger than New Delhi wished. The ref-
erences to Tibetan autonomy and independence and to the Chinese
Communist "reign of terror" were particularly objectionable to
the Indian Government, The Indian liaison officer was forced
to yield following a last-minute, three-hour meeting with the
Dalai Lama's brother, an interview with the Dalai Lama, and
a final meeting with the Dalai Lama's advisers. The Tibetans
emphasized that while they had respected New Delhi's advice
up to that time, they could not further modify a stateme5t which
still did not paint a true picture of the situation in Tibet.
Should the Dalai Lama and members of his goverament con-
tinu press an anti-Peiping line or reiterate the Lama's state-
ment that he considers himself head of a "government-in-exile,"
the Indian Government might become sufficiently embarrassed in
its relations with China to request the Dalai Lama to leave the
country. The Dalai Lama's statement that he does not intend to
stay indefinitely in India or "embarrass the Indian vernment"
suggests that he already has this possibility in mind
Peiping may feel compelled to attack the Dalai Lama's state-
men I although it would have preferred to remain silent about
him and his activities.
23 June 59 CENTRAI wan inprsu-F RI III FTIN Page 3
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SECILT
IlL THE WEST
British Labor Party Reconsidering Nuclear Policy
(To avoid a Labor party split before the general elections ex-
pected this fall, party and trade-union leaders will meet on 23
June to seek ways of dealing with the growing pressure within th
Labor movement to advocate a unilateral renunciation of nuclear
weapons by Britain)
(The meeting is being held a month earlier than originally
scheiiiiled,primarily to meet the threat posed by a resolution
passed on 4 June by the powerful right-wing National Union of
General and Municipal Workers, the third largest British trade
union. This resolution calls for "the next Labor government"
to stop the manufacture of nuclear weapons in Britain and pro-
hibit their use on British territory, The Labor leadership ap-
parently hopes to stave off a similar resolution frozn the Trans-
port and General Workers Union�Britain's largest)
('The present party policy, formulated in March 1958, merely
call n the government to press for an international agreement on
the suspension of thermonuclear tests and to adopt a unilateral
British test ban for one year. While Gaitskell, Bevan, and other
party leadei's continue to oppose any unilateral British nuclear
disarmament, they are searching for measures which, while not
limiting a future Labor government's freedom of action, will of-
fer a contrast to the Macmillan government's policy. Bevan, for
instance, favors a proposal that Britain should offer to give up
its nuclear weapons to help form a non-nuclear "club" of all
nations except the US and the USSR. He privately acknowledges,
however, that Britain would not have to make goo on its offer
since France is unlikely to accept such a proposal.
Even a slight shift in Labor party policy would bring addi-
tiona pressure on the Macmillan government to achieve a test-
suspension agreement. The government has continually shown
its sensitivity to public opinion on the issue by seeking compro-
mises for Soviet-Western differences on the subject
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Haitian Armed Forces Alerted Against Possible Invasion
The Duvalier government has placed the armed forces on
a full nationwide alert. This move was prompted by rumors of
imminent landings on Haiti's north coast, and by a large explosion
and fire at army headquarters near the presidential palace in
Port-au-Prince. Landings might be attempted either by supporters
of exiled opposition leader Louis Dejoie or by groups hoping to over-
throw Dominican dictator Trujillo by means of an invasion through
Haiti. This is the first time the government has alerted all mili-
tary personnel since the abortive seven-man invasion attempt
last 29 July.
Opposition groups in Haiti, principally supporters of Dejoie
and exiled former Provisional President Daniel Fignole, have
recently stepped up terrorist activity against the weak and un-
popular regime. President Duvalier's heart attack on 24 May,
which has removed him at least temporarily from the political
scene, has further encouraged opposition groups and intensified
the long-standing hostility between the regular armed forces and
Duvalier's repressive civilian militia.
Haiti's internal difficulties are further complicated by revolu-
tionary activity throughout the Caribbean area. Revolutionary ele-
ments hoping to unseat Trujillo have long regarded Haiti as a con-
venient point from which to launch an invasion of the Dominican
Republic. The Dominican Government has warned that it would send
troops to repel any invasion of Haiti.
Public disorders caused by an invasion of either anti-Duvalier
or anti-Trujillo groups or by an increase in internal opposition to
the Haitian Government could provoke a popular uprising serious
enough to topple the Duvalier regime. Haiti has specifically re-
quested the United States to establish air and sea patrols and may
also ask the Organization of American States for aid in preventing
an invasion.
23 June 59 CFKITPAI IMTPI I inpkirr RI iiirrim
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3-_,/,:..37B ITEM
Nationalist Diriorciers May ,c)ccur Soon In Belgian Congo
Nationalist-inspired 6isorders, possibly degenerating to
who esale violence aui/ist the 20,000-odd whites, may break
out in Leopoldville withiL Efaa next few days,
He reports that the native city is
ense and awaiting a statement from Minister of the Congo van
Hemelrijck, who is du k back in Leopoldville on 24 June follow-
ing a tour of the colony.)
The Africans are led by Joseph Kasavubu, who played an
important role in the violent riots last January following his
return from the All-African Peoples Conference at Accra.
They are demanding that a regional "Republic of Central Kongo"--
to include only the southwestern part of the Congo from Leopcid-
ville to the ocean--be established by 1 January 1960. Kasavubuis
plan calls for the election of a president in mid-December 1959,
with the election campaign to begin next month. Brussels, how-
ever, is believed very unlikely to accept any such program.)
Kasavubufs activities suggest that Brussels has failed in its
effo'its. to win his cooperation to a program of orderly but rapid
political evolution for the Congo, and that the Belgians are now
likely to encounter increasing difficulties in implementing their
reform program. Kasavubu has indicated complete lack of con-
fidence in all Belgian officials excpet Van Hemelrijck, and he be-
lieves that the forthcoming council elections will be rigged. His
scheme for a separate tribal republic is incompatible with Brus-
selW plans for a highly centralized Congo state.
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Now
Nor/
THE PRESIDENT
The Vice President
Executive Offices of the White House
Special Assistant for National Security Affairs
Scientific Adviser to the President
Director of the Budget
Office of Defense and Civilian Mobilization
Special Assistant for Security Operations Coordination
Board of Consultants on Foreign Intelligence Activities
Special Assistant for Foreign Economic Policy
Executive Secretary, National Security Council
The Treasury Department
The Secretary of the Treasury
The Department of State
The Secretary of State
The Under Secretary of State
The Under Secretary of State for Economic Affairs
The Deputy Under Secretary for Political Affairs
The Deputy Under Secretary for Administration
The Counselor
Director, International Cooperation Administration
The Director of Intelligence and Research
The Department of Defense
The Secretary of Defense
The Deputy Secretary of Defense
Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs
The Secretary of the Army
The Secretary of the Navy
The Secretary of the Air Force
The Chairman, The Joint Chiefs of Staff
Commandant, United States Marine Corps
The Director, The Joint Staff
Chief of Staff, United States Army
Chief of Naval Operations, United States Navy
Chief of Staff, United States Air Force
Assistant to Secretary of Defense for Special Operations
Director for Intelligence, The Joint Staff
Assistant Chief of Staff for Intelligence, Department of the Army
Director of Naval Intelligence, Department of the Navy
Assistant Chief of Staff, Intelligence, Department of the Air Force
Supreme Allied Commander, Europe
Commander in Chief, Pacific
The Department of the Interior
The Secretary of the Interior
The Department of Commerce
The Secretary of Commerce
Federal Bureau of Investigation
The Director
Atomic Energy Commission
The Chairman
National Security Agency
The Director
National Indications Center
The Director
United States Information Agency
The Director
rilIVPIT)PAITI A I
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