CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1956/03/10

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03185110
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: October 25, 2019
• Document Release Date: October 31, 2019
• Publication Date: March 10, 1956

Approved for Release: 2019/10/21 C03185110
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CURRENT
INTELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
TOP SECRET
10 March 1956
Copy No.
103
DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS a
DECLASSIFIED
CLASS, CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: 1010
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE: REVIEWER:
OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
3.5(c)
3.3(h)(2)
�T-19P�SEeftET" f
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CONTENTS
1. AMERICAN CONSULATE GENERAL IN TUNIS ATTACKED
BY MOB (page 3).
2. BRITAIN DEPORTS ARCHBISHOP MAKAR1OS
(page 4).
3. ISRAEL EXPECTS EGYPTIAN ATTACK BY AUGUST
(page 5).
4. SOVIET LEADERS DISCUSS INTERNAL QUESTIONS
(page 6).
5. YEMEN TO ASK WHETHER USSR WILL EXPLORE FOR
OIL IN KAMARANS page 8).
6. TUNISIANS OPPOSE DELAY OF NEGOTIATIONS WITH
FRANCE (page 9).
70 BRITISH SEE FULL-SCALE ATTACK AGAINST OFFSHORE
ISLANDS AS "HIGHLY IMPROBABLE" (page 10).
8. INDIA ACCEPTS.SOVIET STEEL MILL
(page 11).
9. LEBANON MAY BE NEXT TARGET OF EGYPTIAN AN/3
SAUDI ARABIAN SUBVERSION (page 12).
10 Mar 56
* * * *
THE ARAB-ISRAELI SITUATION
(page 13)
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1. AMERICAN CONSULATE GENERAL IN TUNIS
ATTACKED BY MOB
The reported attack on the American
consulate general and information
center in Tunis by French mobs on
9 March is evidence of the strong
anti-American sentiment dominating
French settler thinking. It reflects a general French
sentiment against American information activity, which
has been favorably received by the Arab population. This
attack is the second on an American installation within
the past nine months. The information center was bombed
on 28 June, at which time an unexploded bomb was found
at the residence of an American vice consul.
The French high commissioner in
Tunis, who was also attacked by the mob, recently in-
formed the American embassy in Paris that the French
population in Tunisia had not yet accepted the fact of full
Tunisian independence. The French settlers believe that
the United States has encouraged the nationalists in their
demands for full independence and intends to usurp France's
position and drive them out of Tunisia. They have been en-
couraged in this belief by recent statements made by
French foreign minister Pineau and Prime Minister Mollet,
who have claimed that France's policies are not fully sup-
ported by its allies. In view of the distrust of American
motives prevailing in France and French North Africa,
similar attacks on American installations in Algeria and
Morocco are possible.
10 Mar 56
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2. BRITAIN DEPORTS ARCHBISHOP MAKARIOS
Britain's deportation of Cypriot
archbishop Makarios, in line with
its new tough policy, invites a new
wave of terrorism in Cyprus and
makes impossible any further nego-
tiations for a settlement. The an-
nouncement of Britain's move inter-
rupted Greek preparations for
Makarios' arrival for talks with Greek government of-
ficials and was followed by large-scale demonstrations
against the British in Athens and Salonik4.
The Greek foteign /master
feared Greek
reaction to an "all-out British clean-up" on Cyprus.
his government would not allow itself to be
divorced from Greek public opinion and would therefore
take a firm position on all issues involving Cyprus. Athens,
under a new government which is trying to develop popular
support, may seek to identify itself with public opinion by
some dramatic counter-move such as a rupture of rela-
tions with Britain.
The Greeks will give new encouragement
and support to violent resistance to the British on Cyprus,
and may also permit popular demonstrations against Britain,
Turkey and the United States.
10 Mar 56
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3. ISRAEL EXPECTS EGYPTIAN ATTACK BY AUGUST
Comment
The estimate is consistent with state-
ments made by Israeli officials in
recent months that Egypt would be ready for general hos-
tilities sometime between June and August. Israeli of-
ficials have also said that Egypt might launch an air at-
tack at any time before then.
10 Mar 56
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4. SOVIET LEADERS DISCUSS INTERNAL QUESTIONS
At a reception on 6 March, the top
Soviet leaders emphasized to Ambas-
sador Bohlen that under present con-
ditions in the Soviet Union collective
eactership is the only form of rule possible. Khrushchev
claimed that it was "absolute nonsense" that he was on the
way to becoming another "great leader," and Mikoyan later
made a statement along this same line.
Khrushchev admitted that certain ad-
justments in economic policy had been necessary, partly
because the Soviet leadership came to realize that dis-
armament was not an immediate prospect. Both Khrushchev
and Malenkov vigorously denied, however, that there had
been any "quarrel" between them on economic policy, and
Malenkciv reiterated that lack of experience was the reason
for his resignation as chairman of the Council of Ministers.
Bohlen comments that although candor marked these dis-
cussions, he felt the statements on Malenkov were not en-
tirely frank.
Mikoyan described Stalin's later days
as "difficult times" and said that Stalin frequently made de-
cisions on his own without consultation "with any of us." He
said that by this procedure Stalin had abolished the princi-
ple of voting in party organs and in effect had destroyed
their usefulness. Khrushchev stated that decisions in the
10 Mar 56
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�SECRET
party presidium are now usually reached without vote, but
in the event of disagreement which cannot be ironed out in
discussion, a vote is "obligatory."
Mikoyan intimated that the process of
rewriting Soviet history might be quite far-reaching and said
that in all probability Lenin's testament--his last statement
on the succession problem--would be made public.
Comment These remarks provide the best evidence
to date on how collective leadership ac-
tually operates within the top echelons of the Soviet hierarchy.
Trotsky claimed that Lenin's testament
called for Stalin's removal as general secretary of the party.
Publication of the testament could be used as a device to dis-
credit Stalin completely.
10 Mar 56
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CUPTIVT
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A IV
5. YEMEN TO ASK WHETHER USSR WILL EXPLORE FOR
OIL IN KAMARANS
the king of Yemen ex-
pressed an interest in asking the Soviet
ambassador _ Whether it
would be possible for the USSR
to explore for oil in the Kamaran
Islands.
10 MARCH 1966 60309
10 Mar 56
Comment Both Yemen
and Britain
claim jurisdiction over the Kama-
rans. An offer of exploration
rights to the USSR would likely
be an attempt to gain Soviet sup-
port for Yemen's claims through
a government-to-government
arrangement.
It is likely that Moscow would
consider such a request favorably
in view of its recent efforts to in-
crease Soviet influence in Yemen
and its offer last November to
help Yemen "in everything." The
USSR recently renewed its 1928
treaty of friendship with Yemen.
In February, - a Soviet economic
team went to Yemen to negotiate
a trade agreement which was
signed on 8 March in Cairo.
(Prepared by ORR)
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6. TUNISIANS OPPOSE DELAY OF NEGOTIATIONS
WITH FRANCE
The French government has requested
a recess of the current negotiations
with Tunisia during the National Assem-
bly debate on Algeria, according to
Tunisian deputy premier Bahi Ladgham. He told the Amer-
ican embassy in Paris that France was trying to tie Tunisia's
hands in defense matters, although he admitted that the two
governments were virtually agreed on the conduct of Tuni-
sian foreign affairs.
Ladgham fears that more than a week's
suspension would lead to an upsurge of Tunisian nationalism,
with many extremists joining the Algerian rebels. He said
that if an agreement were not reached before the Tunisian
elections are held on 25 March, the assembly then elected
would unilaterally declare the country's independence and
would abrogate the existing treaties with France.
Comment Although an agreement in principle was
reached prior to the commencement of
these negotiations on 29 February, the deliberations ap-
parently have not gone smoothly. The French high com-
missioner in Tunis, who was in Paris at the time, informed
the American embassy on 7 March that Minister of State
Savary disapproved an American plan to send food and cloth-
ing into Tunisia because France's position would be greatly
weakened if the Tunisians gained the impression that they
could get material or financial support elsewhere.
10 Mar 56
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7. BRITISH SEE FULL-SCALE ATTACK AGAINST OFFSHORE
ISLANDS AS "HIGHLY IMPROBABLE"
As long as the Atherican 7th Fleet.re-
mains in the Taiwan area, it is "highly
improbable" that the Chinese Commu-
nists will launch a full-scale attack or
institute a blockade against the offshore islands
the main deterrent to military action is
the unpredictability of American reaction, which could lead
to an extension of the area of hostilities--a result which the
Chinese Communists would wish to avoid at this time.
the Chinese
Communists are convinced that "time is on their side." They
expect Chinese Nationalist morale to deteriorate, and consid-
er it pointless to fight for areas which they hope to acquire
in due course through subversion and propaganda.
Comment The prevailing British thinking for some
months has emphasized that aggression
is not now in the Communist interest, and that the principal
threat arises from increasing Chinese Communist economic
penetration of neighboring areas.
Over the past year, Communist attempts
to capture Nationalist-held offshore islands have apparently
been deferred pending the outcome of Peiping's efforts to reach
a diplomatic settlement on the area. Although there are no
signs of an imminent attack against the islands, the Commu-
nists might at any time step up their harassing activity to sup-
port their diplomatic pressure against the United States in the
Sino-American negotiations at Geneva.
10 Mar 56
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8. INDIA ACCEPTS SOVIET STEEL MILL
The announcement on 8 March that
India has accepted the offer of a
Soviet steel mill indicates that New
Delhi is satisfied with Soviet terms
and equipment but that it has ac-
cepted only the original offer of a mill capable of pro-
ducing 1,000,000 tons of steel ingots annually. It ap-
parently has not yet accepted a recent Soviet offer to
increase the capacity of the mill by 300,000 ingot tons,,
though at least one news release suggests it may do so
later.
Completion of negotiations and com-
mencement of construction may lead to some loss of
public interest in the Soviet mill, which heretofore has
had a strong propaganda impact. The USSR may there-
fore search for another project of equal publicity value,
whose offer to India would keep public attention focused
on the USSR. Soviet interest in India's basic heavy indus-
tries suggests that any dramatic new Soviet offer might
� deal with petroleum or mineral development.
(Concurred in by ORR)
10 Mar 56
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9. LEBANON MAY BE NEXT TARGET OF EGYPTIAN
AND SAUDI ARABIAN SUBVERSION
the Saudi Arabians and Egyptians are
"carrying �lit a campaign in Lebanon aimed at taking over
the country through a puppet government.
Lebanon was steadily losing ground in its effort to oppose
these moves.
informed groups
in Lebanon are rapidly coming to believe their country is
the next target of the Egyptians and Saudi Arabians,
there is an increasing inclination even among staunchly
pro-West Christians to think in terms of compromise or
partial accommodation. This might prove to be the first
step toward eventual capitulation.
Comment The Saudis have been exerting economic
pressure and subverting the Lebanese
press, while Egypt's ally Syria has sought to draw Lebanon
into a bilateral military pact.
Lebanon, half-Christian, half-Moslem,
has traditionally tried to steer a neutral course in Arab
state politics and will probably try to continue to do so.
Lebanese alarm, particularly among the Christians who
fear being "swallowed up" by the Arabs, has been increased
sharply by the growing influence of Egypt in Arab affairs,
and particularly by recent events in Jordan.
10 Mar 56
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CONFIDENTIAL
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THE ARAB-ISRAELI SITUATION
(Information as of 1700, 9 March)
The American embassy in Tel Aviv believes
that Prime Minister Ben-Gurion's remarks in the Israeli par-
liament on 6 March, when he affirmed his government's inten-
tion to avoid a "preventive war," indicates Israeli leaders are
now concerned with restoring the public morale depressed by
earlier alarmist statements about growing Arab strength. The
embassy also believes Ben-Gurion's renewed rejection of pre-
ventive war, in the face of strong opposition criticism and
against the background of current border troubles, gives some
ground for believing that Israel may avoid "adventurous reac-
tions" for the time being.
An Israeli newspaper reported on 29 Febru-
ary that the first volunteer members of an international Jewish
force are expected to arrive in Israel in March. An appeal was
made early last November to Jewish communities abroad to send
100,000 immigrant youth to help dej.e0 Isry,elgorders. (Press)
Two factions have devtloped within the /
Jordan Arab Legion, according to the American military attach�
in Amman. On the night of 6-7 March one faction attempted to
kidnap a leader of the other group. The basic cause of the fac-
tionalism is the question of officer assignments to replace de-
parting British personnel. The attach�omments that King
Hussain is probably caught in the middle of this struggle, and
that a coup by one of the factions is possible if a compromise is
not worked out. These developments, he believes, bode ill for
the future of the jegion as a military force.
10 Mar 56
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