CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1956/03/08

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03185109
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 19
• Document Creation Date: October 25, 2019
• Document Release Date: October 31, 2019
• Publication Date: March 8, 1956

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I.
CURRENT
INTELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO
14(
iNO CHANGE IN CLASS art
1:1 DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S
!NEXT REVIEW DATE.
AVTH: HR 70-2
!DATE: I 75.1% gb REVIEWER:
8 March 1956
2.00
C;Opy NO.
103
.011.
OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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CONTENTS
1. JORDAN SIT7ION DISPLAYS SIGNS OF CONTINUED
INSTABILITY (page 3).
2. COMMUNISTS MAY BACK MOLLET GOVERNMENT ON
ALGERIA (page 4).
3. AMBASSADOR BOHLEN'S OBSERVATIONS ON SOVIET
PARTY CONGRESS (page 5).
4. SEATO AND BAGHDAD PACT MEMBERS MAY INCREASE
STRESS ON ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
(page 7).
5. WEST GERMAN FREE DEMOCRATIC PARTY LEADER
TENDING TOWARD NEUTRALIST SOLUTION OF UNIFI-
CATION (page 8).
6. IMPENDING AMERICAN NUCLEAR TESTS AROUSING
FUROR IN JAPAN
7.
8. WET MINH WEAKNESS IN CENTRAL VIETNAM DESCRIBED
(page 12).
9. USSR REPORTEDLY HAS OFFERED "FREE GIFT" OF AID
TO LIBYA (page 13).
8 Mar 56
�THE ARAB-ISRAEL SITUATION
(page 14)
* * * *
THE TAIWAN STRAIT
(page 16)
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1. JORDAN SITUATION DISPLAYS SIGNS OF
CONTINUED INSTABILITY
King Hussain's dismissal of General
Glubb has intensified the instability in
Jordan. Jordanian prime minister
Rifai virtually admitted to US ambassa-
dor Mallory his government's fear of
prompt British counteraction, such as
withdrawal of all British officers in the
Arab Legion and termination of the Brit-
ish subsidy. Both of these moves are
under discussion in London, The impres-
sion left by the Foreign Office on Ambas-
sador Aldrich is that Britain considers
its position in Jordan irretrievably lost.
Reports from Amman and elsewhere
strongly suggest that King Hussain is under the domination
of a group of young Jordanian officers of the Arab Legion
called the Free Officers Movement, which seems to be sim-
ilar to the Revolutionary Command in Egypt. The British
believe disintegration of the Arab Legion is likely, and the
young officer group might then resort to drastic moves, in-
cluding even removal of the king, to retain its position.
Further unrest and political agitation are likely to develop
in Palestinian West Jordan where Communist elements are
active.
8 Mar 56
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2. COMMUNISTS MAY BACK MOLLET GOVERNMENT
ON ALGERIA
The French Communist Party (PC F)
is seriously considering supporting
Premier Mollet in the National Assem-
bly vote on special powers for Algeria,
according to a member of President Coty's staff. The act-
ing secretary general of the Socialist Party believes that
the Communists may at least abstain. � He comments that
the current PCF line stressing "ties between France and
Algeria" is an amazing change probably linked with the re-
cent return of Communist leaders from Moscow.
The US embassy. believes Mollet's chances
are very favorable for winning the vote, which is expected
by 13 March.
Comment Communist support of Mollet for a
strong policy in Algeria would indi-
cate the party's determination to use every device to achieve
a popular front.
In an effort to get widespread support
on this issue, Mollet has been consulting with party lead-
ers from the Communists to the Poujadists. None of the
major nongovernment parties has committed itself. How-
ever, it is believed that the right-center would be unwilling
to bring down the government now, particularly since the
government's Algerian policy is much more to its liking than
seemed possible when Mollet assumed office. In the event of
Communist support,� the right-center can also be expected to
back the government in an effort to avoid the appearance of a
popular front.
8 Mar 56
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CONFIDENTIAL
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Pik 416.
3. AMBASSADOR BOHLEN'S OBSERVATIONS ON SOVIET
PARTY CONGRESS
Ambassador Bohlen stresses that the
Soviet 20th Party Congress did not in-
augurate a new phase in Soviet develop-
ment but merely confirmed and "legal-
ize e main lines of policies which have been developing
since Stalin's death.
The ambassador believes that the ideolog-
ical readjustments set forth by the congress were necessary
because Stalinist ideology based on "the cult of personality"
could not serve as a foundation for the more flexible and real-
istic policies which collective leadership has permitted, Ideo-
logical adjustments were also necessary in order to take cog-
nizance of the changed relationships between the Soviet Union
and other members of the Communist bloc, as well as to bol-
ster up new relationships with Yugoslavia. These adjustments
may also reflect diminished Soviet need for Communist par-
ties in non-Soviet countries, a logical corollary of increased
Soviet confidence in the strength and international position of
the USSR. The new ideological developments also confirm
the view that ideology is the servant of the Soviet state and
not, except in broadest outline, its master.
Bohlen notes that by laying down formida-
ble political and psychological barriers to the resumption of
one-man rule, the congress has made it more difficult for
Khrushchev or any other leader to become a second Stalin.
He adds that collective leadership implies the continuing possi-
bility of discord among its members, which might lead to
its breakdown. He believes, however, that such a develop-
ment would be unlikely except during an emergency or crisis,
signs of which are not visible, or from an unbridgeable dif-
ference of opinion on current policy. Agriculture remains
8 Mar 56
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the most likely source of dispute, particularly in the event
of failure this year of IChrushchev's new-lands and corn
projects.
Bohlen concludes that the changes since
Stalin's death have not resulted in any improvement of the
Soviet moral position. The cynicism of the regime is well
� illustrated by the spectacle of the leaders at the congress,
every one a creature of Stalin and involved up to the hilt in
all his actions, now turning on him without a, single dissent-
ing voice.
8 Mar 56
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4. SEATO AND BAGHDAD PACT MEMBERS MAY INCREASE
STRESS ON ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
Comment on:
Between the present SEATO meetings
n Karachi and the Baghdad pact session
n Tehran on 16 April, most Asian and
European members of the SEATO and
Baghdad pact organizations may press
increasingly for greater emphasis on
economic aspects of the pacts and less
on military ones.
Proposals made by British, French,
New Zealand, Philippine, and Thai dele-
gates in connection with the SEATO meet-
ing clearly indicate their preoccupation
with economic matters.
the Pakistani ambassa-
dors to Near Eastern nations, who met in
Karachi in mid -February, agreed to "put aside" for the mo-
ment the military and political aspects of the Baghdad pact in
order to concentrate on its economic aspects.
the Iranian ambassador in Karachi
has said his government feels the need to stress economic as-
pects of the pact in order to strengthen Iran's stand against
the USSR's efforts to woo Tehran away from it.
The secretary general of the Turkish For-
eign Ministry also fears that Soviet propaganda criticizing the
Baghdad pact may become more effective if the United States
does not join it and if Western economic aid to member nations
is not channeled through the pact organization.
8 Mar 56
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5, WEST GERMAN FREE DEMOCRATIC PARTY LEADER
TENDING TOWARD NEUTRALIST SOLUTION OF UNIFI-
CATION
Comment on:
Now that it is in opposition, the Free
Democratic Party (FDP) is flirting
with a policy of neutrality for West
Germany, which it probably regards
as the only line that can gain it new support in the 1957
election. Though party chairman Dehler has said that he
considers West Germany's alliance with the West "solid
and indissoluble," he has admitted that he differs with
Chancellor Adenauer on the unification issue, and he has
called for a determined effort to learn the Soviet price for
unification.
Probably as a feeler in this direction,
FDP floor leader Erich Mende recently issued a unifica-
tion plan which Adenauer's party considers neutralist. It
calls initially for West Germany's resignation from NATO
and thewithdrawal of foreign troops from the area between
the Rhine and the Oder-Neisse as preliminaries to free elec-
tions and a political settlement. A leading Social Democrat
has endorsed MendeY8 plan "in principle."
The 4 March Baden-Wuerttemberg state
election, from which the FDP emerged with only small
losses, is likely to encourage the party to be sharply crit-
ical of Adenauer's policies. A combination of the FDP and
the Social Democratic and Refugee parties could now squeeze
Adenauer's party out of the state government, with a corre-
sponding change in the state's delegation to the national
Bundesrato
8 Mar 56
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CONIIIVNTIA I.
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3CA-1CL
6. IMPENDING AMERICAN NUCLEAR TESTS AROUSING
FUROR IN JAPAN
The announcement on 2 March of the
danger zone for the forthcoming Amer-
ican nuclear tests in the Pacific has
provoked sharp press and popular crit-
icism in Japan, Ambassador Allison
reports.
Allison notes that the Japanese govern-
ment recognizes that the tests cannot be suspended, and
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that safety measures are adequate. Tokyo's principal aim
is to secure compensation for the fish usually caught in the
8 Mar 56
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danger zone, for the cost of detouring around the zone,
and for the expenses incurred in checking the radioac-
tivity of the fish subsequently caught in the affected area.
Comment A recent Japanese public opinion sur-
vey stated that 60 percent of the people
interviewed believed atomic energy is more of a curse than
a boon and would favor a ban on nuclear armaments, even
had superiority in conventional weapons.
rt"le�USS(Concurred in by OSI)
8 Mar 56
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8 Mar 56
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8. WET MINH WEAKNESS IN CENTRAL VIETNAM
DESCRIBED
Viet Minh influence in Central Vietnam
(Annam) has declined greatly in recent
months, in the informed opinion of gov-
ernment officials and French and Chinese
residents there. President Diem's strongly nationalist stand
has deprived the Viet Minh of its basic point of appeal--oppo-
sition to the French--and his anti-Viet Minh propaganda pro-
gram has given aidditional momentum to the significant pro-
Diem swing.
The Viet Minh elements in Central Viet-
nam have no aggressive potential except for isolated acts of
terrorism, only
a full-scale invasion could re-establish Viet Minh strength
and influence there.
Comment The regrouping of military forces in ac-
cordance with the Geneva truce gave most
of Central Vietnam its first freedom from Viet Minh rule in
eight years. Although the Wet Minh left behind a well-developed
apparatus, basic popular hostility to the Viet Minh has oper-
ated strongly in Diem's favor. Diem's appeal in Central Viet-
nam is also enhanced by his family's close ties there.
8 Mar 56
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9. USSR REPORTEDLY HAS OFFERED "FREE GIFT" OF
AID TO LIBYA
Libyan prime minister Ben Halim
told Ambassador Lodge during his
visit to Tripoli in late February
that the Soviet Union had offered
Libya a "free gift" of economic aid
as a token of soviet good will. The offer reportedly in-
cludes a large quantity of wheat as well as bitumen and
cement for road building, heavy agricultural machinery
from Czechoslovakia, equipment for hospitals and schools,
and medical supplies.
Ben Halim stated that the offer was
made with "no strings attached" except for a request that
a TASS correspondent be admitted to Libya.
Comment
This is the most specific information
yet received on a Soviet gift offer to
Libya.
Ben Halim has previously used Soviet
offers to exert pressure for additional American assistance.
The size of the offer, if correctly reported, underlines
Soviet determination to outbid the West for Libyan favor.
(Concurred in by ORR)
8 Mar 56
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THE ARAB-ISRAELI SITUATION
(Information as of 1700, 7 March)
An Israeli military spokesman reported
an exchange of shooting between Egyptian and Israeli forces
In the Gaza area. Israel claims an Egyptian military position
in the Gaza strip opened fire on an Israeli outpost. Egypt has
protested to the Mixed Armistice Commission over five flights
made by Israeli planes on 6 March over the northern part of
the Gaza strip. (Press)
The American military attache in Tel Aviv
reports that the 11th Armored Infantry Brigade is currently at
full strength, "beautifully equipped," in first-class condition,
and on stand-by at Camp Sarafand at Tel Aviv. The brigade
could "roll" on a moment's notice
The Israeli press is pointing up the in-
creased danger of war as a result of General Glubbis dismissal
from the Arab Legion. The semiofficial newspaper writes that
the "threat to Israel, with Glubb's departure, has increased
ominously." Israel is planning to make its most extensive civil
defense test early next week in Haifa. Civilians as well as mili-
tary units will participate in the test. (Press)
The American military attach�n Jordan
anticipates an increase in border incidents along the Israeli-
Jordanian border as a result of Glubb's dismissal. He believes
that lack of restraint and mature judgment under Jordanian lead-
ership along the border could precipitate war. The attach�ased
his belief on a report that Arab Legion troops under a Jordanian
commander had fired on Israeli boats as they withdrew from
Syrian fire.
The American military attache in Damascus
reports that the chief German adviser to the Syrian army fears
8 Mar 56
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the danger of hostilities because of the absence of the Syrian
chief of staff in Cairo and the chance that it gives "young offi-
cers" to make a "mistake."
The Soviet freighter General Chernakowsky,
which had declared Albania as its destination when it passed
Istanbul coming out of the Black Sea on 29 February, arrived
at Alexandria on 3 March. Its deck cargo, covered by tarpau-
lins, reportedly included 16 "light tanks" (probably T-34 medium
tanks). Its arrival brings to 16 the number of arms cargoes
transported by Soviet freighters from Black Sea ports to Egypt
since deliveries began in late October. The Karaganda, the last
Soviet freighter to arrive at Alexandria prior to the Chernakowskv.
reportedly delivered artillery as well as ammunition.
8 Mar 56
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BIWEEKLY SUMMARY
24 February-7 March 1956
THE TAIWAN STRAIT
area.
Report of the
for the Taiwan Strait Problem
1. There have been no significant clashes in the
2. Possibly the first appearance in the Taiwan
Strait area of one of the Chinese Communists' larger naval
vessels has been suggested
An unidentified vessel of the "Major Surface Force" at
Shanghai moved from there to the Shacheng area, 75 miles
north of Matsu, on 5 March. Another vessel, possibly an
auxiliary type, may also be involved in this move, which
could presage increased naval activity in the area. The
larger-type vessel, however, may merely be escorting the
auxiliary on a run to Foochow.
3. Nationalist apprehensions regarding possible
Communist air strikes and the accelerated delivery of Amer-
ican antiaircraft artillery (AA) to the Nationalists have led
to an AA build-up on Quemoy and Matsu. The build-up is ex-
pected to continue.
4. The Nationalist program for rotation of island
units to Taiwan for up-to-date MAAG training is scheduled
to resume. A division now on Quemoy is to be replaced by
a division from Taiwan between 11 and 21 March.
Troop rotations in the Tachens early last year
and in the Quemoys early this year met with intensified Com-
munist harassment during the moves.
5. Communist China's propaganda on Taiwan during
the past two weeks continued to emphasize Peiping's calls for
Nationalist defections.
6. On 4 March, Communist China's Ministry of For-
eign Affairs issued its second official statement protesting
8 Mar 56
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against US "dragging out" of the Geneva ambassadorial
talks. In contrast to its earlier statement of 18 January
which made no mention of the offshore islands, the 4 March
statement made several seemingly studied references to
"liberation of Taiwan and the coastal islands."
7. The establishment on 28 February in Tokyo of a
"Provisional Government of the Republic of Taiwan" by Liao
Wen-i (Thomas Liao), leader of a non-Communist, anti-
Nationalist Taiwan independence movement, occasioned furth-
er Chinese Communist propaganda blasts and charges that the
Liao movement was being supported by the US. Peiping's vio-
lent reaction to the presently insignificant Liao movement ap-
pears to be designed to put Peiping again on record as oppos-
ing autonomy, trusteeship, and other "compromise" solutions
to the Taiwan problem.
8 Mar 56
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TAIWAN STRAIT SITUATION
- .MARCH 1956
CHINESE COMMUNIST AIRFIELD LEGEND:
PRIMARY AIRFIELD
DESIGNATIONS
CONSIDERED MOST IMPORTANT IN
AREA WITH PREPARED RUNWAY
GENERALLY 5000 FEET OR LONGER.
ACTIVE BASE MILITARY & CIVILIAN AIR�
CRAFT. SOME BASES USED BY PISTON TYPES
MAY BE USABLE BY JE1S
INAC FIVE BASES CAPABIL Oh USE BY AIRCRAFT
!IRRENT CLAWS UNDE f ERMINED
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SECONDARY AIRFIELD
AUXILIARY OR EMERGENCY BASES
OR FIELDS OF LESSER IMPORTANCE.
RUNWAYS GENERALLY LESS THAN
5000 FEET.
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