CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1955/05/03

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03181204
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: September 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: September 26, 2019
• Publication Date: May 3, 1955

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3.3(h)(2)
3.5(c)
3 May 1955
Copy No. 94
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMEN'T NO. 23 07
NO CHANGE IN CLASS,
El DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE. 20
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE:,..91ifid.0.- REVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
,
-'TOP SECREP
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Senior British official suggests new approach on Germany (page 3).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
2. Chou En-lai reportedly offers mediation of Pathet Lao problem
(page 3).
3. Comment on "People's Revolutionary Council" in Saigon (page 4).
SOUTH ASIA
4. Pakistan moves to curtail relations with Afghanistan (page 5).
5. Krishna Menon believes US hinders negotiations with Peiping on
Formosa issue (page 6).
THE FORMOSA STRAITS
(page 8)
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GENERAL
I. Senior British official suggests new approach on Germany:
The permanent under secretary of the
British Foreign Office, Sir Ivone Kirk-
patrick, believes' the USSR might even-
tually abandon its position in East Ger-
many and accept a "neutralized" zone, "making use of Yugoslavia's
middle position," and including East Germany, Austria, and part
of Czechoslovakia.
Kirkpatrick believes the West should
consider what it would give to end the Berlin difficulties and ex-
tend Western influence to the Polish border. He suggests a
unified Germany in NATO with the East zone demilitarized.
Comment: British officials at the current
tripartite meetings on East-West talks in London have made it
clear that the new British governrnent to be formed after the 26 May
elections will not be able to make definitive decisions on substance
before about 1 July. Meanwhile, primarily because of the elections,
these officials have urged the earliest possible invitation to the USSR
and an agenda broad enough to include all outstanding East-West is-
sues except Far Eastern questions.
Kirkpatrick's thinking goes beyond pre-
vious British ideas on Germany, which were confined largely to
the Eden plan for free all-German elections. His evident desire
to encourage the idea of a band of "neutral" nations is generally
compatible with the British government's professed policy of seek-
ing an East-West understanding based on a parity of strength.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
2. Chou En-lai reportedly offers mediation of Pathet Lao problem:
Chou En-lai volunteered at Bandung to
act as mediator in determining whether
control over the two northern provinces
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TOP SECRET
of Phong Saly and Sam Neua should go back to Laos, according
to a statement Laotian premier Katay made to General Phao,
Thai director general of police. According to this information,
passed by Phao to the American embassy in Bangkok, Chou pro-
posed asking Pathet Lao leader Souphannouvong to come to Pei-
ping to discuss this matter and apparently also invited ICatay.
The Laotian premier was favorably impressed by Chou, but has
not yet decided whether to accept his offer of mediation.
Katay also told Phao that if current
negotiations with the Pathet Lao fail, he is determined to launch
an attack on the northern provinces some time before the elec-
tions scheduled for December.
Comment: Katay's acceptance of Commu-
nist China's mediation offer would amount to a relinquishment of
the sovereign rights in northern Laos claimed by the royal govern-
ment. It would undo recent progress in the International Commis-
sion, toward recognizing Laotian
claims.
Katay's plan for military action as a last
resort may have been encouraged by a promise of noninterference
in Laos' internal affairs made to him at Bandung by Viet Minh vice
premier Pham Van Dong.
3. Comment on "People's Revolutionary Council in Saigon:
The self-styled "People's Revolutionary
Council" which on 30 April adopted a
resolution "deposing" Bao Dai, "entrust-
ing" Diem with forming a new government,
an requesting e withdrawal of French troops has no official sta-
tus. It has been tolerated and perhaps to some extent encouraged,
however, by the Diem government as an instrument with which to
bring pressure on Bao Dai and the French. Diem has explicitly
informed the American embassy in Saigon that he still regards Bao
Dai as the chief of state, and that the resolution of the council has
no bearing on this matter.
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General Ely's allegation that the Viet
Minh is "playing an important part" in the revolutionary group
and Diem's entourage has not been confirmed by other sources.
Some of the lesser known figures served with the Viet Minh
several years ago, as did a number of other nationalists now
prominent in the Vietnamese government. It does not appear,
however, that they have been engaged in pro-Wet Minh activity
since that time, and the statements issued by the council have
been consistently anti-Communist. Sect generals Phuong, The,
and Ngo, who are prominent in the group, are anti-Communist.
The council has claimed to represent a wide cross section of
Vietnamese political groups. The statement by the head of Viet-
nam's largest labor union that the union's name was used with-
out authorization suggests that some of the council's support may
exist only on paper.
The sect generals who are on the coun-
cil control a total of about 19,000 troops' and Diem will be at
some pains to retain their support. As long as he retains the
loyalty of the Vietnamese national army, however, he should be
able to prevent the council from gaining control of the government.
SOUTH ASIA
4. Pakistan moves to curtail relations with Afghanistan:
Pakistani prime minister Mohammad
Ali announced in his regular first-of-
the-month broadcast on 1 May: "We
have decided to close down our consu-
lates in Afghanistan. We have decided
to expel the Afghanistan embassy in
Pakistan."
On the same date, Mohammad All told
reporters that Pakistan had ordered the immediate closing of
Afghan consulates and trade agencies in Peshawar, Quetta, Chaman
and Parachina.r. Pakistan, he said, had closed its consulates in
Kandahar and Jalalabad.
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Comment: This Pakistani move is pre-
sumably made to impress Afghanistan with the possibility of
economic strangulation through the eventual breaking of diploma-
tic relations and the closing of Kabuik's outlet to the sea by way of
Karachi. While this action may constitute sufficiently heavy pres-
sure to force the fall of Afghan prime minister Daud's government
and its replacement by one more favorably disposed to Pakistan,
making propaganda capital of the move might result in develop-
ments directly opposite to those desired. On two recent occasions,
Pakistani publicity or actions have forced Afghanistan for reasons
of pride to withdraw from a position which could have assisted in
a rapprochement. (SECRET NOFORN)
5. Krishna Menon believes US hinders negotiations with Peiping on
Formosa issue:
India's V. K. Krishna Menon
indicated his con-
viction that the United States was respon-
sible for the anti-Communist stand taken
7by Turkey and several other nations at
the conference.
Subsequently on 28 and 30 April, Menon,
in a more moderate mood, explained to Ambassador Cooper in
New Delhi that Communist China does not want to fight, that the
next move is up to the United States, and that if the United States
continues to question China's good faith, no progress toward a
settlement can be made.,
During the second conversation with
Cooper, Menon mentioned that he is going to Peiping only to try
to prepare the way for negotiations and that he expects no firm
commitments to develop from the first contacts between the United
States and China. He tried hard, however, to impress Cooper with
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the possibility of progress if only the United States would adopt a
reasonable attitude.
Comment: Krishna Menon, like others,
appears to have been greatly impressed by the strength of the
showing made by anti-Communist, pro-Western nations at Bandung.
He obviously ascribes this strength to the United States' powers of
persuasion, and probably feels more strongly than before that the
United, States must be convinced of China's bona fides if a peaceful
settlement of the Formosan situation is to be achieved.
Whether Menon goes to Peiping in an
emotional frame of mind or not, it is questionable whether he will
accurately represent the positions of both sides.
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THE FORMOSA STRAITS
Report of the IAC Current Intelligence Group
for the Formosa Straits Problem
This report is based on information received in Washington
up to 1100 hours 2 May 1955.
1. No significant developments have been reported.
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