CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1955/04/30

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03181202
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: September 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: September 26, 2019
• Publication Date: April 30, 1955

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30 April 1955
Copy No. 94
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO .e/
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
0 DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE:eV/42o REVIEWER:
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
TOP SECRET
3.3(h)(2)
3.5(c)
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SUMMARY
SOVIET UNION
1. Communists hint Soviet troops will remain in Hungary and
Rumania (page 3).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
2. Communists reassure Thais at Bandung conference (page 3).
3. Comment on the situation in Saigon (page 4).
SOUTH ASIA
4. Indian Foreign Ministry evaluates Afro-Asian conference (page 5).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. Lebanon seeking Syrian participation in Turkish-Iraqi pact
(page 6).
WESTERN EUROPE
6. Young Communists reportedly ordered to incite May Day disturb-
ances in Berlin (page 6).
7. Comment on Gronchi's election to Italian presidency (page 7).
LATIN AMERICA
8. Coup or revolution could occur in Ecuador "any day" (page 8).
9. Argentine tension over church-state dispute increases (page 8).
30 Apr 55
THE FORMOSA STRAITS
(Page 10)
* * * *
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SOVIET UNION
1. Communists hint Soviet troops will remain in Hungary and Rumania:
Hungarian foreign minister Boldoczlkt told
the Swedish minister on 27 April that be-
cause of the ratification of the Paris ac-
cords, "our defense people will probably
find it necessary to request the Soviet government to permit troops
to remain" even after an Austrian treaty is concluded. Deputy
Foreign Minister Sik, however, separately expressed the opinion
that they would be withdrawn.
Comment: Establishment of the united
Soviet bloc command foreshadowed by the Moscow conference of
bloc leaders last December would result in closer military co-
operation between the Soviet Union and its allies than exists at
present and would provide justification for maintaining Soviet troops
in the Satellites.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
2. Communists reassure Thais at Bandung conference:
During the Afro-Asian conference, Wet
Minh foreign minister Pham Van Dong
agreed "in principle" to the repatriation
of Vietnamese refugees from northeast
Thailand to North Vietnam.
Dong indi-
Gatea wiLungness to send .a mission to Bangkok to negotiate details
whenever the Thai government is ready
Chou En-lai had
assure( no tear of the Thai autonomous area in
southwestern Yunnan or of former premier Pridi Phanomyong--
who was now permitted "only political asylum" in Peiping. Chou,
moreover, indicated willingness to negotiate on the nationality
status of the Overseas Chinese in Thailand along the lines of the
Sib-Indonesian treaty signed at Bandung.
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Comment: Full implementation of Dong's
agreement would deprive the Viet Minh of a potentially valuable
fifth column in Thailand. The Viet Minh may hope, however, that
an attitude of co-operation on the refugee problem will pave the
way for Thailand's recognition, as well as make possible the pur-
chase of badly needed rice.
Chou's conciliatory gestures at Bandung
on issues particularly sensitive to Bangkok are reported to have
had a highly favorable effect on Prince Wan.
3. Comment on the situation in Saigon:
The chief immediate problem facing
Vietnamese premier Diem is the politi-
cal opposition of the French and Bao Dal.
He apparently has no present intention
of responding to Bao Dal's convocation of a "peace conference" on
the Riviera on 5 May, but might reconsider if he believed his
power sufficiently consolidated.
The French authorities in Saigon have
reportedly decided to "recognize" General Vy, Bao Dal's new
military plenipotentiary, who is considered anti-Diem, as com-
mander of the Vietnamese army. By such a move, the French
may be preparing justification for withholding supplies from the
army on legal grounds.
a strong
current of revolt against Bao Dai and hostility toward the French
is evident in Saigon. If Diem is in some way forced to compro-
mise with the French and Bao Dal, a strong possibility exists
that other nationalist leaders in Diem's camp will appeal for
open revolt against Bao Dai, even at the risk of fighting the French
Expeditionary Corps.
For his part, Diem is continuing efforts
to assemble a new cabinet. A tentative list of members indicates
an intent to meet some of the criticism which has been brought
against him. In the prospective line-up, Diem himself holds no
30 Apr 55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 4
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portfolios, no post is held by a practicing Catholic, and about
half the members are Cochinchinese.
SOUTH ASIA
4. Indian Foreign Ministry evaluates Afro-Asian conference:
The Indian Ministry of External Affairs,
eval-
uatea the recently concluded Bandung
conference. The ministry bluntly stated
that Iraq, Iran, Lebanon, Pakistan, the
9uuuiu and Turkey "completely and unequivocally
Identified themselves with American policies."
some attending pro-Western countries supported the
unwillingness of South Vietnam to have private discussions with
North Vietnam.
The ministry noted that it was the
Ceylonese premier "who first expressed the so-called new con-
cept of colonialism" and that he was very eloquent in his criticism
of East European countries. Syria took a neutral stand and gen-
erally sided with India and Burma. Afghanistan "played a useful
part in the discussions and followed a policy of independence and
nonalignment generally."
Chou En-lai made an "excellent
im-
pression on all delegations," and It
was mainly due to his "patiehee, taxi, ana earnestness T that
unanimity was achieved on the resolutions regarding colonies and
dependent peoples.
Comment Despite the gratification ex-
pressed over the conference's ability to reach unanimous decisions,
this indicates India's irritation over developments
at Bandung. The ministry's readiness to blame American influence
suggests that New Delhi may pursue an even harder line in its
future relations with the United States.
30 Apr 55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 5
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411,
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
5. Lebanon seeking Syrian participation in Turkish-Iraqi pact:
Comment: Cha,moun and Syrian prime
minister Asali met in Beirut on 15 April, apparently at Chamounes
invitation. They probably discussed both the Turkish-Iraqi and
the proposed Egyptian-Saudi Arabian-Syrian pacts. It is unlikely,
however, that Chamoun succeeded in persuading Asali to work
toward Syrian adherence to the Baghdad pact. Additional talks
may be planned, but in the present circumstances there is little
prospect of success.
Lebanon wants to join the Turkish-Iraqi
pact. If it could thereby obtain American military assistance, it
probably would join despite Syrian, Saudi Arabian and Egyptian
opposition.
WESTERN EUROPE
6. Young Communists reportedly ordered to incite May Day disturb-
ances in Berlin:
Members of the Communist Free German
Youth (Fm) throughout Berlin reportedly
have been ordered to incite disturbances
at the May Day rally of the West Berlin
trade unions. The rally is to be held in the American sector, ap-
proximately two miles from the Soviet sector.
30 Apr 55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 6
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Nor
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American army officials in Heidelberg
comment that recent Communist performance indicates that the
FAT does not have the capability for causing a major incident.
Comment: In view of the current harass-
ment campaign by the East Germans against West Berlin, the
Communists may make an effort to disrupt the West Berlin trade
union rally despite their limited capabilities.
7. Comment on Gronchi's election to Italian presidency:
The election on 29 April of Giovanni
Gronchi, 67-year-old Christian Demo-
cratic president of the Chamber of
Deputies, as president of Italy is a
severe blow to the prestige of Premier Scelba and the present
center coalition government. It may presage the formation of
a new coalition somewhat to the left of Scelba's.
Gronchi, who was elected on the fourth
ballot at a joint session of parliament, received 658 votes out of
a possible 843.
As the leader of the extreme left wing
of the Christian Democratic Party, Gronchi represents those who
favor a government "opening to the left." He has been a consistent
advocate of Christian Democratic collaboration with all "demo-
cratic" factions, in which he would include the Nonni Socialists.
All indications are that he is anti--Communist. Last November
he told American embassy officials that the way to reduce Com-
munist strength in Italy is to take the offensive with a more vig-
orous and far-reaching reform program,.
The Scelba government will submit its
resignation on 12 May when the new president takes office. In
view of Scelba's personal opposition to Gronchi's election, it is
probable that the resignation will be accepted.
30 Apr 55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 7
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LATIN AMERICA
8. Coup or revolution could occur in Ecuador "any day":
Either a move by President Velasco to
establish a dictatorship or an attempt
by certain army units to overthrow
Velasco in favor of former defense min-
ister Varea could occur "any day,"
The Varea group is said to be convinced
Velasco's alleged plan will fail for lack of solid army support,
and to hope the president will act first so that he will be thoroughly
discredited. In any case, however, this group plans to act by
18 May.
Comment
that Velasco has consiaerea steps to prevent
Congress from convening in August as scheduled in order to pre-
vent official inquiries regarding graft and corruption on the part
of his cabinet members. Velasco has, however, ruled by con-
stitutional procedures and has conditioned virtually every move
on the consent of the military. It appears unlikely that he would
attempt to establish a dictatorship at this time.
According to all indications, Varea has
few influential friends left among the armed forces. In recent
months, however, he has been involved in plotting against the
regime, and he might provide a rallying point for disaffected. ele-
ments.
9. Argentine tension over church-state dispute increases:
The possibility of incidents in Buenos
Aires during the May Day week end,
when President Peron will address Con-
gress and speak in the Plaza del Mayo,
has been pointed up by the police discovery on 27 April of a
home-made bomb, according to the American embassy. The bomb
exploded while being dismantled by the police.
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Discovery of the bomb has added to un-
easiness generated by opposition and Catholic-inspired rumors
predicting that the government would "discover" a fabricated
plot and use it as the basis for more stringent moves against the
church.
Comment: Tension over the church-
state dispute has been mounting. The possibility of incidents
in connection with the dispute is increased by the desire of some
politicians on both sides to exploit the situation. A few elements,
including the Communists, would like to provoke violence.
Two years ago the explosion of two
bombs at a mass meeting resulted in considerable rioting and was
promptly followed by a brief renewal of an anti-American line in
Argentine government propaganda.
30 Apr 55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 9
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THE FORMOSA STRAITS
Report of the IAC Current Intelligence Group
for the Formosa Straits Problem
This report is based on information received in Washington
up to 1100 hours 29 April 1955.
1. Chinese Communist submarine strength has been in-
creased from five to seven submarines. The two additions, first
observed in March 1955, are both Soviet long range types. The
five boats previously accepted were two long range types and
three short range types; one of the latter is believed nonopera-
tional. These seven boats, representing transfers from the Soviets,
are based at Tsingtao and are believed manned by Chinese crews.
The six operational boats have the capability of conducting war
patrols in the China coastal area.
2. The presence of a Communist PT unit of three to
five boats in the Matsu area has been indicated by the sighting
of this type craft there three times in the past four days. This
would be a logical Chinese Communist reaction to the Nationalist
interdiction patrol north of the Matsus. This Nationalist patrol
has been maintained each night by patrol craft, joined occasionally
by a destroyer and two DE's. No interceptions have been reported,
although Communist logistic activity at dawn and dusk continues.
On 27 April the destroyer and two DE's bombarded the Huang Chi
area of the Peiling Peninsula; 166 rounds of 5" were fired and
flames and explosions were reported.
Prior to the Ichiang assault the Chinese Communists
had deployed PT boats in the Tachen area, which sank a Nationalist
DE and a motor gun boat. The excellent performance of the Com-
munist PT boats in these engagements posed a threat which re-
stricted Chinese Nationalist naval operations in that area thereafter.
Aggressive employment of PTs in the Matsu area could similarly
disrupt Nationalist naval support of the Matsus.
3. Chinese Communist comment continues to affirm Peiping's
position that the Formosa situation is both an "internal" and an "in-
ternational" question. It implies a Chinese Communist position that
the status of Formosa is not negotiable, that there is no need for a
cease-fire, and that the only matter to negotiate is a US withdrawal
from the area. Meanwhile, Pravda has given its seal of approval
to Chou En-lai's 23 April statement on Formosa.
30 Apr 55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 10
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Bombarded by
Nationalist Navy
27 April
KAOTENG
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MATSU AREA
29 April 1955
Selected Road
LANGTAO
(LARNE ISLANDW
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CHINA -FORMOSA SITUATION
Nautical miles � 510
Selected
road
100 150
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100 150 4 + Proposed railroad
COMMUNIST AIRFIELD LEGEND
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importance-runways general ly less than 5000 feet.
Fields not considered capable of
OPERATIONAL: consistently used by military & civilian aircraft.
al
A UNKNOWN
supporting sustained operations
at present.
"RLRVICEABLE: capable of use by aircraft.
0
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