CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1955/04/08

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03179872
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: September 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: September 26, 2019
• Publication Date: April 8, 1955

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8 April 1955
Copy No.
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO. e
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
[I DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: Ae_Cia
ALITH: HR 70.2
DATE: c4/1.,/c90 REVIEWER
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
TOP SECRET
94
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
1. Swiss and Swedes to make divergent NNSC proposals (page 3).
2. Britain, France press United States on disarmament issue
(page 3)0
SOVIET UNION
3. Malenkov reportedly accused of favoring German unity at expense
of East Germany (page 4).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
4. Foreign minister to head Viet Minh delegation to Bandung (page 5),
SOUTH ASIA
5. Comment on developing crisis in Afghanistan (page 6).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
6. Iraq apparently operates clandestine "Voice of Free Egypt"
(page 7).
LATIN AMERICA
7. Brazilian cabinet shifts may trigger army coup (page 7).
THE FORMOSA STRAITS
(page 9)
* * * *
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GENERAL
1, Swiss and Swedes to make divergent NNSC proposals:
According to the American ambassador
in Sweden, the Swedish Foreign Ministry
has ordered its representative on the
Neutral Nations Supervisory Commission
(NNSC) in Korea to propose the abolition
of the fixed inspection teams, a drastic
reduction in personnel, and withdrawal
of the remaining personnel to the demili-
oposal is rejected or action on it is de-
layed unduly, the Swedes will give "strong indication" that they
will withdraw from the commission.
The Swiss, however, insist on a literal
interpretation of the armistice agreement in order to maintain
their position as neutrals in the future, according to the Ameri-
can ambassador in Bern. They reject the abolition of the teams,
but are prepared to insist on a reduction of personnel.
Comment: The divergence of positions
taken by Sweden and Switzerland on the modification of the agree-
ment governing supervision of the Korean truce may favor the
Communists and frustrate the UN Command's objective of having
NNSC personnel leave South Korea,
The Communists have indicated a willing-
ness to negotiate a reduction in personnel, but specify that cur-
rent inspection procedures must not be impaired.
2. Britain, France press United States on disarmament issue:
The British and French delegates at the
UN disarmament subcommittee meetings
in London are, with every sign of prior
co-ordination, bringing increasing pres-
sure on the United States to accept an amendment to the four-power
resolution of 8 March, The proposed amendment provides that the
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elimination of nuclear weapons be simultaneous with the beginning
of the fourth and final phase of an agreed plan to reduce armed
forces and conventional weapons.
The American delegation believes that
the French-British amendment springs from the French desire to
conciliate the USSR and the British desire to point to some "bold
new" disarmament move by election time. The British delegate
has admitted as much.
Comment: The fact that an election may
be near adds urgency to the importance the British have attached
to the necessity of the West's showing a positive approach to the
disarmament issue.
Moch is determined that the current
talks should continue unless they are broken off by the USSR.
He may hope to avoid a long stalemate by confronting the Soviet
delegate with evidence of American "reasonableness."
SOVIET UNION
3. Malenkov reportedly accused of favoring German unity at expense
of East Germany:
Before Malenkov's resignation as premier
the Soviet Communist Party allegedly ac-
cused him of supporting a proposal of
Beria to halt Soviet efforts to socialize
East Germany and to permit the reunification of Germany as a
bourgeois democracy serving as a buffer between East and West.
The accusation was presented in the official Communist Party
version of the charges against Malenkov issued on 31 January by
the presidium of the central committee,
Comment: An editor of the French
Communis1 paper L'Humaiiiir recently told
that Malenkov had been prepared to "sacrifice the East German comrades."
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16 u_4.1
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Neither Malenkov's statements nor the
actions of his regime indicate that he favored such a policy. The
use of this charge against him by the present leaders would sug-
gest that they do not envisage any change in the satellite status
of the German Democratic Republic, despite the fact that they are
spreading rumors that their only condition for unification is neu-
trality.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
4. Foreign minister to head Viet Minh delegation to Bandung:
Ho Chi Minh has declined Premier Nu's
invitation to visit Rangoon prior to the
Asian-African conference on the grounds
that Foreign Minister Pham Van Dong,
rather than he, would be leading the Viet
Kinn ae-Legation.
Comment: While he lacks Ho Chi Minh's
prestige, Pham Van Dong has been prominent in the Viet Minh
movement from its inception. As chief of the Viet Minh delegation
at the Geneva conference, he demonstrated considerable ability as
a negotiator.
Dong,
who is presently visiting India, will arrive in Rangoon on 11 April
and decide then whether to stay there or fly on to Hanoi and return
later. Chou En-lai is expected in Rangoon on 13 April, with Nehru,
Nasr, and Nairn of Afghanistan arriving on the fifteenth.
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SOUTH ASIA
5. Comment on developing crisis in Afghanistan:
Frequent reports that senior members
of the Afghan royal family are attempt-
ing to remove Prime Minister Daud from
office indicate that they will probably
force a showdown in the near future.
No information is available as to the
strength of Daudis support within the country. The recent riots,
which have been interpreted as in support of Daud, may not be a
true measure of his political strength in view of reported Soviet
involvement.
It is possible that Soviet agents--perhaps
without Daudis knowledge--supported the demonstrations, but it
is most unlikely that the Soviet ambassador or Soviet nationals
would participate openly. The ringleaders of the demonstration
have been arrested, and the
situation in Kabul was quiet as of 6 April.
Should the Afghan king leave the country
prior to a showdown, as rumored by several sources, he would
thereby demonstrate that his position is weaker than has previ-
ously been believed. These rumors also support other recent
evidence that the final decision concerning Daud depends directly
on Shah Mahmud and Shah Wall, uncles of the king and of Daud.
These two senior members of the royal family, who are strongly
anti-Communist, have in the past been able to control Daud.
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NEAR EAST - AFRICA
6. Iraq apparently operates clandestine "Voice of Free Egypt":
A radio station calling itself the "Voice
of Free Egypt," apparently located in
Baghdad, has proclaimed a "state of
organized resistance" against Egyptian prime minister Nasr and
his "gang."
The station made its appearance about
5 April, when it inaugurated a daily, hour-long program of denun-
ciation of Egypt's Revolutionary Command Council,
Comment: The "Voice" appears to be
Baghdad's answer to Cairo's campaign against Iraqi prime minis-
ter Nun i Said because he recently concluded a defense pact with
Turkey. It is the first known use of clandestine radio by one
Arab government against another.
Tension between the two countries may
now be considerably heightened. The Egyptian regime may in-
tensify its efforts--which Prime Minister Nasr has recently
allowed to slacken--to persuade Syria to join Egypt and Saudi
Arabia in an anti-Iraqi defense pact.
LATIN AMERICA
7. Brazilian cabinet shifts may trigger army coup:
The Brazilian army may move to force
President Caf�ilho to resign if addi-
tional cabinet changes cause further
demoralization of the government, ac-
cording to the American embassy in
Rio de Janiero.
The e:mbassy reported on 6 April that
army unrest had been heightened by the
disclosure of a political "deal" resulting in the resignation of two
ministers and the president of the central bank.
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An unconfirmed press report of '7 April
stated that all members of the cabinet had proffered their resig-
nations.
Comment: The military's concern over
Caf�ilho's ineffectual leadership of the government has increased
markedly in recent months, particularly within the so-called
"colonels' group." This group has become an effective political
force in the past two years and might be able to override the ap-
parent opposition of key Brazilian generals to a coup at this time.
The army's concern stems mainly from
the government's failure to counter the presidential aspirations Of
the major opposition candidate, Juscelino Kubitschek, who is
closely linked with former adherents of the late President Vargas.
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NOW
THE FORMOSA STRAITS
Report of the IAC Current Intelligence Group
for the Formosa Straits Problem
This report is based on information received in Washington
up to 1100 hours 7 April 1955.
1. No significant military activity occurred
�
2. Chinese Nationalist Defense Minister Yu Ta-wei has
been telling various US officials that
1) Free China is anxious to "stabilize the front" and
avoid war. Military aid and training programs are in
any event not sufficiently advanced to permit sizable opera-
tions before another year.
2) The US can "stabilize the front" by simply announc-
ing that it will defend Quemoy and Matsu, and
3) Short of this commitment, it would be helpful if the
US were to station tactical air units on Formosa continu-
ously.
Yu Ta-wei's comments on the surface would appear to
indicate a. shift in the policy of the Chinese Nationalist Government.
His statements on stabilizing the front represents an approach which
will have a broad appeal both in the US and among our allies. Ac-
tually, it is considered that Yu's statements do not represent a change
in basic policy, but are merely another attempt by the Chinese Na-
tionalists to obtain additional US military commitments.
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