CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1956/10/20

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03179155
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: October 25, 2019
• Document Release Date: October 31, 2019
• Publication Date: October 20, 1956

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CURRENT
INTELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
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20 October 1956
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OFFICE OF OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
TOP SECRET
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CONTENTS
OVIET DELEGATION IN WARSAW
(page 3).
2. CHINESE COMMUNIST REMARKS ON SOVIET-POLISH
RELATIONS (page 4).
- 3. POLE PREDICTS TWO-PARTY SYSTEM IN POLAND
(page 5).
SEMENOV COMMENTS ON SUEZ AND JORDAN DISPUTES
(page 6).
. HE USSR RESTORE DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS
(page 7).
6. BONN ANNOUNCES NATO FORCE GOALS FOR 1956 WILL
NOT BE MET (page 8).
A/7. CHOU EN-LAI HINTS AT ACTION IF HONG KONG RIOTS
RECUR (page 9).
20 Oct 56
� THE ARAB-ISRAELI SITUATION
(page 10)
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1, TOP-LEVEL SOVIET DELEGATION IN WARSAW
A TASS communiqu�ssued in Moscow
early on 20 October confirms that Khrush.,
chev, Mikoyan, Molotov and Kaganovich
arrived in Warsaw on 19 October to carry
on discussions with leading members of
the Polish Workers' (Communist) Party. The communiqu�
stated that Wladyslaw Gomulka, purged in 1948 for "Titoism"
and just reinstated in the central committee, attended the
discussions. The statement gave no indication that the four
Soviet presidium members are participating in the work of
the plenum of the Polish party central committee now in
session.
According to the communiqu�a delegation
of the Polish politburo will "shortly" go to Moscow to discuss
political and economic questions with the Soviet leaders. The
fact that Poland will send such a delegation to Moscow for
additional talks suggests that Soviet policy toward Poland and
the other Satellites is still being formulated. Pending a de-
cision on this policy, the Soviet leaders can be expected to
make a strong effort to prevent the Polish plenum from taking
further public steps confirming the present trend toward
internal democratization and independence from Moscow.
The noncommittal tone of the communiqu�
and an unusual reference to the atmosphere of "outspokenness"
in the talks suggest that there remain divergent views between
the Polish and Soviet leaders. The high level of the Soviet
delegation is probably intended to impress the Poles with the
unity of the Soviet leadership at a time of basic readjustment
in Soviet-Satellite relations.
20 Oct 56
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2. CHINESE COMMUNIST REMARKS ON SOVIET-
POLISH RELATIONS
The New York Times correspondent in
Warsaw is convinced of the authenticity
of the report given him by two members
of the Polish party's central committee
Chinese Communists have assured Polish party
leader Ochab of their support for Polish "independence!'
The American embassy in Warsaw is also inclined to believe
the account.
The correspondent states that it was Chou
En-lai, not Mao Tse-tung, as originally reported in the Times,
who gave the assurances to Ochab on his trip to Peiping last
month. Chou is said to have declared that he understood the
Polish desire for independence and that "Poland should not be
dictated to by the Kremlin!'
Comment In making these remarks, Chou did not
necessarily intend to question Soviet
policy toward the Satellites. His remarks are consistent
with the Chinese understanding a Soviet policy pronounce-
ments on "independent roads to socialism!'
20 Oct 56
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3. POLE PREDICTS TWO-PARTY SYSTEM IN POLAND
Julian Hochfeld, a former Socialist who
is now a member of the Polish United
Workers (Communist) Party and the
Sejm (parliament), recently told a
small group at London University that he envisaged the
establishment soon of a two-party system in Poland. He
said the "opposition" party would be made up of social
democrats or groups inspired by social democratic tradi-
tions. When asked whether the Russians would give per-
mission to a two-party system for Poland, he replied, "We
shall not ask Khrushchev."
In discussing Poland's economic situation,
Hochfeld also said,"We shall approach the United States for
economic aid. . . ." In other comments, he maintained
that the Russians "could not put the clock back" in Poland
and that great progress would be made under Gomulka. He
stressed that workers' councils along the lines of Yugoslav
experiments would be established.
Comment Hochfeld is expressing the views of a
significant segment of those elements
within the Communist party who favor liberalization.
Hochfeld recently distinguished himself before the Sejm
with outspoken criticism of the regime for blaming past
excesses on individuals rather than the system.
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Sine NIowe'
ES
Soviet deputy foreign minister Semenov
told
British-American
"machinations" in Jordan are designed
to pave the way for eventual intervention
in the Near East. He suggested that the British are eyeing
Jordan as a base to replace Suez and Cyprus and that the
help offered to Jordan by Iraq is fictitious because Iraq has
only one brigade which it can make available.
Comment The USSR is expected to take a strong
stand in support of Jordan's demand
that the Security Council punish Israel for its recent border
attacks. Soviet propaganda has been implying that the West-
ern powers instigated these attacks to create a pretext for
intervening in Jordan on the eve of that country's parliamentary
elections.
20 Oct 56
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5,, JAPAN AND THE USSR RESTORE DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS
The declaration restoring diplomatic
relations between Japan and the USSR,
signed by Prime Minister Hatoyama
and Premier Bulganin on 19 October,
seems certain to receive Diet approval and probably will
be acceptable to most Japanese. The Soviet pledge to re-
turn Shikotan and the Habomai Islands when a peace treaty
is concluded and to continue discussions on the status of
the southern Kurils will probably placate irredentist senti-
ment critical of the agreement and prevent a serious division
in the ruling Liberal-Democratic Party. The present agree-
ment, however, does not remove a major obstacle to conclud-
ing a peace treaty, since the USSR may continue to make the
return of Shikotan and the Habomai Islands contingent on
Japanese recognition of Soviet sovereignty over Sakhalin
and the Kurils.
Disappointment over failure to gain the
immediate return of the territories will be largely over-
come by promises of Soviet support for Japan's admission
to the UN--which the Japanese delegation has stated is un-
conditional--the early repatriation of Soviet-held Japanese
prisoners, the assurance that the fishery pacts will be im-
plemented, and optimistic projections of Japanese-Soviet
trade.
The USSR will probably increase its
economic, cultural and political overtures toward Japan and
intensify its campaign for the withdrawal of American forces
and for a neutral Japan. As Japanese detainees are released,
Communist propaganda can be expected to contrast this with
the continued imprisonment of American-convicted war crim-
inals.
20 Oct 56
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8. BONN ANNOUNCES NATO FORCE GOALS FOR 1956 WILL
NOT BE MET
The West German government has an--
nounced that it will not meet the NATO
force goals for 1956. Germany's sub--
mission to the NATO annual review will
amended at the next NATO council meeting. The Bonn
government has blamed the Western allies for this situation,
charging that they have not released barracks as originally
planned.
The embassy says the source of the dif-
ficulty is the failure of the Refugee Ministry to relinquish '
occupied barracks and administrative delays in starting new
construction.
Comment These modifications in Bonn's defense
effort are designed to win support for
Adenauer in the 1957 election in face of the unpopularity of
the rearmament program.
Adenauer continues to maintain that the
total German force goal of 500,000 will not be affected by
these changes. Citing the alleged barracks shortage, the
Defense Ministry has halted the recruiting of volunteers.
20 Oct 56
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PV CHOU EN-LA1 HINTS AT ACTION IF HONG KONG
RIOTS RECUR
"You know we could cause plenty of
trouble in Hong Kong easily, but don't
want to," Communist China's Premier
Chou En-lai told
Chou
state
such riots menaced China's security. He added that
Kuomintang "gangsters" could create more riots and
that "peaceful" residents might then decide to resist.
Comment Chou made these remarks following
British rejection of Communist
charges that Hong Kong authorities had been derelict in
dealing with the riots.
Chou's statement that "peaceful" citi-
zens might resist during any future disturbance constitutes
a warning that pro-Communist organizations in Hong Kong
might act in case of any future riots.
20 Oct 56
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THE ARAB-ISRAELI SITUATION
(Information as of 1700, 19 October)
the 2nd Syrian Tank Brigade, composed of Soviet T-34 tanks,
is now stationed in the Dera area, just north of t e o d n
border along the main road to Amm
Syria's rdan
has called forth praise and gratitude such as that which accom-
panied the sale of Soviet bloc arms to Egypt, according to the
American embassy in Amman. Ambassador Mallory comments
that though the quantity of arms given to Jordan is so far fairly
small, Syria is getting the benefit of Iraq's failure to send troops
into Jordan. The ambassador stated that Iraqi "heavy-footed-
ness" and the prompt Syrian action are a defeat for the West
and will have substantial i
elections.
Ambassador Moose in Damascus reports
that as a result of the Jordanian request for British air sup-
port during the recent Israeli attack, Britain requested and
obtained overflight nrivi I PVPS frnm guria fnr min+ 'HT7 "art n
from Cyprus.
20 Oct 56
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