CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1956/05/15

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Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
03179154
Release Decision: 
RIPPUB
Original Classification: 
U
Document Page Count: 
10
Document Creation Date: 
October 25, 2019
Document Release Date: 
October 31, 2019
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Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
May 15, 1956
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PDF icon CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULL[15742113].pdf250.74 KB
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Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179154 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN 7-0-17-SECRET 15 May 1956 Copy No,, 103 DOCUMENT NO. NO CHANGE IN CLASS I DECLASSIFIED CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S CIAO NEXT REVIEW DATE: AUT H 7 o A T REVIEWER: OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY Top SECRET 3.5(c) 3.3(h)(2) /7�; Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179154 Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179154 Ask 40". Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179154 Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179154 1...1 � La 3 orge' Aloe' CONTENTS 1. USSR'S ANNOUNCED REDUCTION IN ARMED FORCES izsage 3). 2. NASR CONFIRMS FORTHCOMING SHAKE-UP IN EGYP- TIAN GOVERNMENT (page 5). 3. SOVIET AND FRENCH OFFICIALS GIVE PREVIEW OF MOSCOW TALKS (page 0). 4. SINGAPORE SELF-GOVERNMENT TALKS APPROACHING CRITICAL STAGE (page 7). 5. THAILAND RESTIVE ON TRADE CONTROLS ISSUE (page 8). 15 May 56 * * * * THE ARAB-ISRAELI SITUATION (page 9) Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 2 -7 P -51 e E Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179154 Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179154 1. USSR'S ANNOUNCED REDUCTION IN ARMED FORCES Comment on: The USSR b announced intention to reduce its armed forces by 1,200,000 before May 1957 reflects its current assessment of the nuclear stalemate and may have been motivated jointly by political and eco- nomic considerations. The Soviet announcement will support and intensify a major Soviet propaganda campaign to in- duce similar moves on the part of the Western nations. It may have been timed to have an impact on the visit of the French premier and foreign minister to Moscow, since French sentiment in favor of disarmament is particularly strong. In a 14 May interview with a correspondent for Le Monde, Premier Bulganin called for immediate settle- ment of the disarmament question, adding thkt an "Utterly destructive war is the only alternative to coexistence." The announcement indicated that 63 army divisions and brigades, including military units numbering over 30,000 men stationed in East Germany, would be demo- bilized and 375 watships put in malibalLsi.. The reductions allegedly are in addition to the cut of 640,000 announced by the Soviet Union last year. Taken together, the cuts represent about 46 percent of total Soviet armed personnel, resulting in a significant loss of immediate combat capability. Devices to maintain maximum combat efficiency in the face of these reductions would include a change to civilian status of support troops without any change in their functions as well as an expansion of military training 15 May 56 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 3 Stfl' Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179154 Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179154 r, \'tre v�4 for the success of the Sixth Five-Year Plan. (Prepared jointly with ORR) for civilians. The USSR would retain its capability for rapid mobilization of its Manpower which, with the reduc- tions, would include approximately eight million trained reserves. Procurement of modern complex weapons systems would probablY, not be slo*ed by suclr a-reduction. � Gromyko, in the London disarmament talks, implied that the USSR would reduce only personnel, maintenance, and operational costs, as was the apparent case in the 6409000 man reduction. Consequently, while the new cut wOuld al- low the USSR to claim a reduction of nearly 20 percent in the military budget, the bulk of major equipment procure- ment would probably continue as previously planned, with a possible doubling of procurement outlay per man for the remaining force. The transfers to the labor force which might result from the reduction would decrease the un- precedented dependence on increased labor p7oductivitv 15 May 56 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 4 Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179154 Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179154 Aik TO CRET 2. NAOR CONFIRMS FORTHCOMING SHAKE-UP IN EGYPTIAN GOVERNMENT 15 May 56 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page ,5 TOPECRET Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179154 Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179154 tILI1 %Moe 3. SOVIET AND FRENCH OFFICIALS GIVE PREVIEW OF MOSCOW TALKS Comment on: Khrushchev told a French "peace" delegation visiting Moscow recently that the USSR still hoped for con- tinued French presence in Algeria, provided a solution could be reached along the Moroccan and Tunisian line. He said that, for both internal and in- ternational reasons, Moscow could make no public declaration to that ef- . Minister Molotov told the same group that Soviet denunciation of the French-Soviet treaty last May had been intended as a warning to the French people, and that the time was not ripe for any new treaty, since the French are "still held in the NATO vise." Premier Bulganin, in reply to questions of the French newspaper Le 2_o_nd_e, said on 14 May that the USSR is ready to "increase considerably Franco-Soviet trade on the basis of long-term agreements, provided there is equality and mutual benefit without any discrimination." Sov2et leaders will try to obtain more from the French premier and foreign minister in Moscow and will try to insert language into the final communiqu� bringing the Frerich closer to the Soviet position on Euro- pean security, German reunification, disarmament, and the Near East, particularly the Baghdad pact. French were determined to hold the line on these issues, and the communiqu�ould probably be confined to general- ities. The main Soviet objective in the talks with the French leaders, which start on 15 May, is probably to influence Frances long-range thinking, rather than to reach immediate formal agreements. 15 May 56 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 6 S ET Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179154 Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179154 SP:CW-14;4: "t 4. SINGAPORE SELF-GOVERNMENT TALKS APPROACHING CRITICAL STAGE Comment on: Talks in London on seil-government ror Singapore appear to have reached a crucial point, with Chief Minister Marshall still demanding complete local control of internal security and publicly stating that "no agreement is better than a bad agree- ment." British officials had hoped that last week's temporary postponement of the issue, combined with their sympathetic treatment of the citizenship question, would render Marshall more flexible on the security issue prior to a showdown meeting expected early this week. Marshall is alone in his delegation in expressing objections to the British security position. He may still yield to his colleagues and settle for less than total control. Representatives of the Communist- manipulated People's Action Party who are on the Singapore delegation have been content to let Marshall play the pre- dominant role in the negotiations in order to be free to share in his success or to capitalize on his failure. Should the negotiations break down, Marshall is expected to resign. Secu- rity forces in Singapore have been strengthened and are on the alert for trouble. 15 May 56 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 7 Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179154 Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179154 (Atli NT Lulli. NIT7thltift NI 5, THAILAND RESTIVE ON TRADE CONTROLS ISSUE Thailand's Premier Phibun and the minister of finance have publicly in- dicated that Thailand's foreign trade policies should be re-examined in the ig united States' recent relaxation of restrictions on trade with the USSR and the East European Satellites, according to the American ambassador in Bangkok. The ambassador observes that while the relaxation of Thailand's trade controls would not con, tribute materially to the bloc's economic build-up, it could have adverse political and psychological repercussions in terms of Thailand's anti-Communist orientation. Comment Thailand bans all direct trade with Communist China. It has also volun- tarily banned the export of goods to the rest of the bloc. Phibun has been subjected to strong official and unofficial pressure to ease these restrictions. So far, he has succeeded in resisting these pressures, but they may cause him to seize on any change in the American position on trade controls to justify a change in Thailand's policy. Last fall the Thai government re- examined the desirability of its close political ties with the West and at that time reaffirmed its strong anti-Com- munist position. (Concurred in by ORR) 15 May 56 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 8 NFIPENmL Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179154 Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179154 L()J\1tIJWV11AL THE ARAB-ISRAELI SITUATION (Information as of 1700, 14 May) Nothing of significance to report. 15 May 56 Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 9 ('j ::NT14L Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179154