CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1956/03/02

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03179149
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: October 25, 2019
• Document Release Date: October 31, 2019
• Publication Date: March 2, 1956

A,pproved for Release: 2019/10/23
CURRENT
INTELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO. 5
NO CHANGE IN CLASS Cia
0 DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: I c)
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE- 114 NA, to REVIEWER:
C03179149
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/�
/.A
C03179149
2 March 1956
Copy No. 103
OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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3.3(h)(2)
3.5(c)
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,oppmw
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I l.J1 La 1-4
CONTENTS
1. ISRAEL RENEWS ARMS DEMANDS
(page 3).
2. THREAT TO ADENAUER717N-WUERTTEMBERG
ELECTION OF 4 MARCH (page 4).
3. EAST GERMANS PLAN RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF
SECURITY ZONE ON WESTERN BORDER
page 5).
4. ARGENTINE GOVERNMENT UNEASY OVER LONARDPS
RETURN page 6).
5. PEIPING� MAY BE PLANNING DIRECT APPROACH TO
LAOTIAN GOVERNMENT ON PATHET LAO ISSUE
(page 7).
6. NEW GREEK CABINET
2 Mar 56
(page 8).
* * * *
THE ARAB-ISRAELI SITUATION
(page 9)
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KEI

1. ISRAEL RENEWS ARMS DEMANDS
Ambassador Lawson believes that
Israeli prime minister Ben-Gurion
is nearing a policy decision as great
,as any confronting him since the es-
tablishment of Israel.
Ben-Gurion, on the verge of tears and
in the most emphatic, forceful and table-pounding manner
Ambassador Lawson had yet seen, demanded a "yes or no"
answer on arms for Israel on 29 February. "It is a ques-
tion of life or death. We are in mortal danger." Ben-Gurion
rejected the suggestion that Israel should rely on the United
Nations and the tripartite declaration. He said that no dimin-
ishment of Israeli territory would be permitted "as long as
we are alive." Lawson comments that though Ben-Gurion de-
nied being under any pressure except the "pressure of events,"
the recent concentration of Egyptian and Syrian forces on Is-
rael's borders put him under heavy and continuing pressure
from the Israeli government, the army, his own party mem-
bers and the opposition.
the ar-
my is now urging Ben-Gurion to allow it to strike and destroy
the Egyptian forces before it is too late. The noted
that the Israeli army had urged the same action at the time of
the El Auja incident last November, but the prime minister
had refused.
Comment Israel almost certainly is making a re-
assessment of its security situation in
the light of Arab troop concentrations on its frontiers and
Israel's failure to obtain arms. At the same time, however,
these statements appear timed to bring maximum pressure
on the United States to give Israel arms. Israeli leaders
probably have not yet decided on a new policy departure, nor
on the direction such a new departure would take, and may
hope that further pressure will secure the arms they have
requested.
2 Mar 56
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2. THREAT TO ADENAUER IN BADEN-WUERTTEMBERG
ELECTION OF 4 MARCH
Chancellor Adenauer faces a serious
threat to his national position in the 4 March election in
Baden-Wuerttemberg, where the other major parties have
combined their campaign efforts against the Christian
Democratic Union (CDU) and reportedly have agreed to
exclude the Christian Democrats from the next state gov-
ernment.
Unless the CDU can gain an absolute
majority in the Baden-Wuerttemberg legislature, there is
almost certain to be a change in the state's delegation to
the federal Bundesrat. This would lose the chancellor his
present majority in the upper house of parliament and place
the Free Demperatic and Social Democratic parties in a
position to hamstring Adenauer's national program. Ex-
clusion of the CDU from the Baden-Wuerttemberg govern-
ment would probably also defeat Adenauer's efforts to re-
verse the parliamentary coup of 20 February in North Rhine-
Westphalia, when his party was turned out of office by the
Free Democrats. It might also encourage the overthrow of
one or more CDU-dominated governments in other states.
Informed political observers give the
Christian Democrats little chance of gaining 50 percent of
the seats in the Baden-Wuerttemberg legislature against
the other parties which now form a coalition state govern-
ment with them. In the 1952 state election the CDU polled
36 percent of the vote, and reached 52,4 percent only in
the Adenauer landslide of 1953.
2 Mar 56
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3. EAST GERMANS PLAN RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF
SECURITY ZONE ON WESTERN BORDER
District secretaries of the Social-
ist Unity (Communist) Party from
areas bordering on West Germany
were to meet in Berlin on 27 Febru-
ary to discuss special measures to
bpdApplied on the frontier between East and West Germany,
these
measures would include the enforcement of the five-kilo-
meter security zone on the Western frontier, new control
measures, and intensification of existing ones.
Comment
East Germany's border restrictions
would be tightened on 1 May. Such moves would be in-
tended to curtail the large flow of military-age refugees
to West Germany before recruiting for the East German
armed forces is intensified this spring.
The five-kilometer security zone on
the West German border, originally established in 1952 to
stem the substantial refugee flow, was opened to almost un-
restricted access in June 1954 as part of East Germany's
program of improving relations with West Germany. Dur-
ing the period of strict enforcement of the security zone
from 1952 to 1954, only an estimated 4 percent of the refu-
gees leaving East Germany crossed the West German frontier,
the rest departing through Berlin. On the basis of this ex-
perience, the East German authorities would probably con-
sider it necessary also to restrict movements into West Berlin.
Since the relaxation of controls in 1954, there has been a sub-
stantial increase in refugees, with about 50 percent of the
refugees crossing directly into West Germany.
2 Mar 56
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4. ARGENTINE GOVERNMENT UNEASY OVER
LONARDI'S RETURN
The American embassy in Buenos
Aires reports that a new "atmos-
phere of uneasiness" has been build-
ing up there in the past few days.
This may be related to the imminent
return to Buenos Aires of former
president onar and the reported arrest of General
Leon Bengoa.
General Lonardi is scheduled to ar-
rive in Buenos Aires on 2 March.
there are plans for a welcoming
demonstration by all opposition elements, including the
Communists. Ambassador Nufer comments that a large
demonstration could have "wide repercussions."
F713engoa declared he would not accept any post with the
government because he was in complete disagreement with
its basic political, economic, and military policies. Ben-
goa is at present reported to be detained in the War Minis-
try.
Comment Both Lonardi and Bengoa believe that
the government should follow a more
conciliatory line toward the Peronistas. Lonardi still re-
tains a considerable following as a revolutionary leader and
a former president.' He was ousted and replaced by the pres-
ent Aramburu administration on 13 November.
Bengoa, who is politically ambitious, re-
cently defied an order assigning him to the Inter-American
Defense Board in Washington.
2 Mar 56
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5. PEIPING MAY BE PLANNING DIRECT APPROACH TO
LAOTIAN GOVERNMENT ON PATHET LAO ISSUE
The action of the Chinese Commu-
nist press in expressing approval
of policies proposed by Laotian pre-
mier Katay may be a trial balloon in
aii�empt by Peiping to open direct conversations with
Laos, according to Ambassador Yost in Vientiane. The
Chinese Communists would probably offer a "settlement"
of the Pathet Lao issue, presumably in exchange for the
elimination or reduction of American influence in Laos.
The ambassador notes that Radio Hanoi
has continued to take a "hard" line on Laos, and believes
this may indicate a difference of opinion between the Chi-
nese Communists and the Viet Minh. Such a difference
may have been the cause of the Pathets' long delay in re-
plying to the International Control Commission's resolu-
tion of 7 January calling for restoration of royal govern-
ment authority in northern Laos.
Comment The Chinese Communists may be pre-
paring an approach to the Laos problem
in which they would offer to mediate between Hanoi and
Vientiane and at the same time promote Laotian neutralism.
In seeking a vote of confidence for a new
cabinet, Katay on 20 February announced that government
policies included respect for the "five principles of peaceful
coexistence." Although that cabinet did not win the confi-
dence vote, a reshuffled one with Katay as premier is likely
to be accepted.
2 Mar 56
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6. NEW GREEK CABINET
Comment on:
The new Greek cabinet sworn in
with Prime Minister Karamanlis
on 29 February represents merely
a reshuffling of Karamanlis' last
government. It does not appear ca-
pable of carrying out the program of
social and economic reform Karaman-
lis says he intends to initiate. Some
of the members may resist any at-
tempts at reform.
Minister Without Portfolio Gregory
Kassimatis, whom Karamanlis recruited from the Liberal
Party to broaden the base of his National Radical Union,
reportedly has told the prime minister the "new team" of-
fers the Greek people no hope for a change. Kassimatis
also has been quoted as saying the new government cannot
last long and is doomed to certain failure. Kassimatis is
also reported to have complained to Karamanlis that his
choice for the top economic ministry represented interests
opposed to reform. The new minister of merchant marine
has long been associated with Greece's most powerful indus-
trial figure, Bodossakis.
Bodossakis recently asserted that "Karamanlis can-
not save himself from my efforts to destroy him."
2 Mar 56
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THE ARAB-ISRAELI SITUATION
(Information as of 1700, 1 March)
Egyptian and Tsraeli troops are
exchanging fire in the Gaza strip.
Syrian prime minister Ghazzi, in reply to
the Iraqi offer of military aid in the event of an Israeli attack,
told the Iraqi minister that Syria felt that the recent Israeli
moves were primarily intended to be a war of nerves against
Syria. Ghazzi reportedly said that the United States had seized
on the rumors of war to press for implementation of the Johnston
plan. He had, however, told the US that Syria was not prepared
to accept the plan. Ghazzi made no mention of accepting the Iraqi
offer.
on 5 February there were about 50 MIG-15 aircraft under heavy
guard at Almaza airfield near Cairo. On the same day 18 IL-28
jet bombers were reported to be at Cairo West air base. Six of
these bombers were being used for training and Soviet instructors
were training Egyptian pilots in groups of 20. The bombers al-
legedly were to be allotted to two squadrons which would be sta-
tioned in the canal zone.
only 37 MIG-15 fighters and 16 IL-28
bombers. On the basis of available evidence, it is estimated that
70 to 80 MIG-15's and between 30 and 45 IL-28's have been deliv-
ered to Egypt and that these all arrived soon alter the arms de-
liveries began in October 1955.
Egyptian premier Nasr, King Saud of Saudi
Arabia, and Syrian president Quwatli reportedly will meet at
Luxor, Egypt, this week end. There is no confirmation of this
report or specific indications of the nature of the reported talks
other than a previous report that Quwatli was going soon to Aswan
for a rest.
Prince Mishal, Saudi
Arabian minister of defense, is already in Cairo.
2 Mar 56
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