CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1956/02/14

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03179144
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: October 25, 2019
• Document Release Date: October 31, 2019
• Publication Date: February 14, 1956

Approved for Release: 2019/10/23 C03179144
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CURRENT
INTELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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Z--12 3.3(h)(2)
14 February 1956 3.5(c)
Copy No.
103
DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS la
Li DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: tO
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE. 14 "nr. tftEVIEWER:.
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CONTENTS
1. SOVIET FOREIGN MINISTRY STATEMENT ON THE
MIDDLE EAST (page 3).
2. BOHLEN ASSESSES SOVIET LEADERSHIP ON EVE
OF 20TH PARTY CONGRESS (page 4).
3. CHOU EN-LAI REPORTEDLY STATES TAIWAN TO
BE TAKEN IN 1956 (page 5).
4. JAPANESE UNCONVINCED BY ARGUMENTS AGAINST
CHINA EMBARGO RELAXATION
(page 6).
5. INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT ABROGATES NETHERLANDS-
INDONESIAN UNION (page 7).
6. PRESTIGE OF_MQLLET GOVERNMENT SEEN SERIOUSLY
REDUCED (page 8).
THE ARAB-ISRAELI SITUATION
(page 9)
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1. SOVIET FOREIGN MINISTRY STATEMENT ON THE
MIDDLE EAST
The Soviet Foreign Ministry statement
on 13 February condemning the intro-
duction of foreign troops into the Middle
East "without the agreement of the states
concerned and without the sanction of the UN Security Council"
is an explicit Soviet demand for a voice in the settlement of
Middle Eastern issues.
The statement specifically refers to the
Eisenhower-Eden declaration and states that "the moving of
troops into the countries of the Near East would create a seat
of dangerous tension" and that "any action leading to increased
tension in that area is bound to be a subject of lawful concern
to the Soviet government!'
Since the Soviet communique of last April
on the Middle East, Moscow has publicly indicated its inten-
tion to obtain, either directly or indirectly, an influential role
in Middle Eastern affairs. Bulganin's statement to the Supreme
Soviet in August announcing Soviet willingness to join with the
West in guaranteeing the neutrality of any state has been followed
up by direct proposals for a four-power guarantee to Iran, and
offers of bilateral neutrality agreements with other states. Mos-
cow has also hinted that the Arab-Israeli situation might best be
solved in the Security Council,
Egyptian premier Nasr has stressed his
view that "without the Russians" no decisions can be made con-
cerning the Middle East.
14 Feb 56
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2. BOHLEN ASSESSES SOVIET LEADERSHIP ON EVE
OF 20TH PARTY CONGRESS
In Ambassador Bohlen's view, the Soviet
leadership today retains the collective
nature which it assumed immediately af-
ter Stalin's death. The most influential
tfjr has now narrowed to Khrushchev, Bulganin, Kaganovich,
and Mikoyan, with Khrushchev "first among equals." Ambas-
sador Bohlen defines "collective leadership" in this connec-
tion not as equality of all members, but rather as an organi-
zational structure designed to keep the sole power of decision-
making out of the hands of any one man.
The party congress opening on 14 Febru-
ary offers a convenient opportunity for the top leadership to
exclude from its ranks, with a minimum of political disturb-
ance, those individuals (Malenkov, Molotov, Ponomarenko)
whose standing and authority has diminished in the last year.
This might be accomplished either by outright expulsion from
the party presidium or by dilution of their authority through �
the establishment of an inner bureau within an expanded pre-
sidium.
Ambassador Bohlen concludes that Khru-
shchev, as first secretary and principal spokesman of the
party, will undoubtedly be the most prominent figure at the
congress. He feels, moreover, that the present senior group
in the presidium will emerge from the congress in a stronger
position, with Khrushchev perhaps even more clearly "first
among equals."
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3. CHOU EN-LAI REPORTEDLY STATES TAIWAN TO
BE TAKEN IN 1956
Taiwan will be taken by the Chinese
Communists in 1956, and Hong Kong
and Macao "at a later date," accord-
ing to a private statement on 4 January
allege y ma 'e y Premier Chou En-lai to a foreign diplo-
mat in Peiping.
Comment During the past year Chou En-lai has
spoken of taking Taiwan in several in-
terviews with foreign visitors and diplomats, but this is
the first time he is reported as setting a target date.
Recent Chinese Communist statements
have stressed only the "eventual return" of Taiwan to Com-
munist China "by peaceful means, if possible." Communist
propaganda has been devoted more to causing disaffection
and subversion among Nationalists than to direct threats to
use force.
Despite occasional propaganda threats
against Macao and Hong Kong, Peiping has refrained from
any real pressure on them.
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4� JAPANESE UNCONVINCED BY ARGUMENTS AGAINST
CHINA EMBARGO RELAXATION
The Japanese government,
stated that it can no longer
convince the Japanese people of the ne-
'Cessity of maintaining the present level
of trade controls against Peiping. According to the state-
ment, Japanese industrial circles believe Communist China's
economic build-up is progressing steadily despite the em-
bargo and that unless controls are relaxed, Japan will lose
the China market forever.
Shigemitsu argued that there is no mar-
ket in the United States for the type of goods Japan wishes
to sell to Communist China, that it has exhausted its efforts
to expand trade with Southeast Asia, and that it is to Japan's
advantage to buy cheaper raw materials from Peiping with-
out any outlay of foreign exchange. By creating a larger
market for Japanese goods in Communist China, Japan be-
lieves it can accumulate the capital necessary to cut produc-
tion costs and to modernize its industry so as to compete suc-
cessfully against Communist goods in Southeast Asia,
Comment Government leaders recognize that the
future for Sino-Japanese trade is limited,
but many Japanese businessmen dream of a vast China mar-
ket and others maintain that any expansion of trade benefits
the Japanese economy.
that Japan might
not support the United States on the China embargo question
at the next Consultative Group meeting in Paris, unless prior
US-Japanese agreement to some relaxation of controls is
reached. (Concurred in by ORR)
14 Feb 56
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5. INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT ABROGATES NETHERLANDS-
INDONESIAN UNION
Comment on:
The Indonesian government's abrogation
of the Netherlands-Indonesian Union on
13 February has little or no international
significance and was undertaken only in
an effort to increase the domestic pres-
tige of the Masjumi party, which heads
the cabinet, The union was never effective
and was abrogated 18 months ago by a bi-
lateral agreement which, however, was
not submitted o the Indonesian parliament and is not recog-
nized by the present Indonesian government.
Masjumi leaders are basically pro-Western,
but they fear that unless they take action to bring the Masjumi
record in line with the nationalistic, anti-Dutch programs of
other major non-Communist parties--the National Party (PNI)
and the Nandlatul Ulama (NU)--the Masjumi will be excluded
from the next cabinet, due to be formed in late March or
The Masjumi's action will have little or no
effect on the PM, which negotiated the unrecognized 1954 agree-
ment, but may improve its relations with the NU. Since the
NU is the hub of current political maneuvers, Masjumi chances
for cabinet participation may be increased.
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6. PRESTIGE OF MOLLET GOVERNMENT SEEN
SERIOUSLY REDUCED
The prestige of Premier Monet's
government has been seriously re-
duced as a result of his "ill-advised"
trip to Algeria,
the premier would probably abandon any
major reform program for that area.
An influential official of Patronat, the
French employers' organization, told an American corre-
spondent that Patronat now strongly backs Poujade. He
predicted that "Mollet will be out of office in from 48 hours
tO two weeks, and within two weeks there will be shooting
in the streets of Paris," a statement the American embassy
considers sensational but indicative of the thinking of French
employers.
Comment The National Assembly has shown itself
willing to give Mallet time to begin im-
plementation of his Algerian policy. Unless he stops re-
treating from his original policy, however, he is likely to
be faced with an early and acrimonious debate on Algeria.
The invalidation of the election of Poujadist
deputies is widening the rift between right and left and brings
nearer the threat of violence.
14 Feb 56
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THE ARAB-ISRAELI SITUATION
(Information as of 1700, 13 February)
Egypt intends to give "a number" of
British Valentine tanks to Saudi Arabia and attempt to sell
others to other Arab countries, particularly to Syria and the
Sudan,
three shipments of military equipment from Czechoslovakia
had arrived via KLM in the last ten days. The charg�aid that
the shipments totaled about 20 tons and that he had been told they
included submachine guns.
made ar-
rangements for delivery of a consignment of Czech machine pis-
tols to Syria by KLM airline on 6 February. sug-
zest that a similar shipment was made on 3 February.
Brigadier Galletly, Arab Legion brigade
commander, believes that the next few months are extremely
critical and that if the Israelis do attack he believes May 1956 is
the most likely date. The American attach�n Amman comments
that all senior Legion officers from Glubb Pasha down share
Galletly's concern regarding the new few months.
(See also item 1, page 3, which deals with
the Soviet proclamation of interest in Near East developments.)
14 Feb 56
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