CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1956/02/11
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03179142
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Document Page Count:
18
Document Creation Date:
October 25, 2019
Document Release Date:
October 31, 2019
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Publication Date:
February 11, 1956
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CURRENT
INTELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
1) 4470
February 1956
Copy No.
103
3.5(c)
DOCUMENT NO. 3.3(h)(2)
NO CHANGE IN CLASS (El
LI DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE. .2-0 to
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE:11 7-1Prt SO REVIEWER:
OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
tiV
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CONTENTS
1.
2. SOVIET VESSEL EN ROUTE TO CHINA REFUSED
BUNKERS AT SINGAPORE (page 5).
3. NEW INCIDENT BETWEEN SOUTH KOREAN AND CHINESE
COMMUNIST VESSELS IN YELLOW SEA POSSIBLE
(page 6).
4. STRUGGLE FOR POWER IN SOUTH KOREA ACCENTUATED
BY ASSASSINATION OF CIC CHIEF (page 7).
5. ARGENTINA REPORTEDLY OFFERED MIG-15'S BY USSR
(page 8).
6. CAMBODIAN CROWN PRINCE RE-EMPHASIZES NEUTRAL-
ISM ON RETURN FROM PHILIPPINES (page 9).
7. COMMUNIST CHINA TO BUILD COTTON MILL FOR BURMA
(page 10).
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101 L11(L1
8. SINO-CEYLONESE RICE DEAL CUTS CEYLON'S PUR-
CHASES FROM BURMA (page 11).
9� COMMENT ON SHAH OF IRAN'S VISIT TO INDIA
(page 12).
10. INDIA'S NEWLY ANNOUNCED FIVE-YEAR PLAN
(page 13).
11. USSR TO PLAY MAJOR ROLE IN TECHNICAL TRAINING
FOR INDIA AND BURMA (page 14).
12. EUROPEAN INTEGRATION DRIVE FACES TWO CRUCIAL
ISSUES (page 15).
* * * *
11' Feb 56
THE ARAB-ISRAELI SITUATION
(page 16)
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2. SOVIET VESSEL EN ROUTE TO CHINA REFUSED
BUNKERS AT SINGAPORE
Comment
This is the first hindrance encoun-
tered by Soviet vessels recently
re-entering the Europe-China trade. An 18-month with-
drawal followed the Chinese Nationalist seizure of the
Soviet tanker Tuapse in June 1954. The British refuse
bunkers to all vessels carrying strategic goods to Chinese
Communist ports.
Of the eight vessels currently en
route to China, two which are reportedly carrying non-
strategic cargoes are already proceeding through the South
China Sea to North China ports. They will pass north of
the Philippines and within 200 miles of Taiwan�the ship-
ping lane used by the intercepted Tuapse.
The Belomorcanal will probably at-
tempt to procure bunkers in Indonesia to avoid a long tow.
(Prepared by ORR)
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3. NEW INCIDENT BETWEEN SOUTH KOREAN AND CHINESE
COMMUNIST VESSELS IN YELLOW SEA POSSIBLE
Comment
South Korea may plan new inci-
dents with Chinese Communist fishing vessels on the high
seas, only three
South Korean coast guard vessels are now operating in the
Yellow Sea, but four more at Pusan will be ready for sea
by 8 February. The South Koreans may be striving to put
a maximum number of patrol ships at sea by mid-February.
South Korea would exploit any incident
with Communist fishing vessels inside the unilaterally pro-
claimed "Rhee Line"--in this area over 100 miles offshore--
as a violation of the armistice and a threat to its national
security. President Rhee would thereby hope to involve the
United States.
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4. STRUGGLE FOR POWER IN SOUTH KOREA ACCENTUATED
BY ASSASSINATION OF CIC CHIEF
Comment on:
The recent assassination of South Korea's
counterintelligence chief has brought
into the open a struggle for power between
two opposing groups for control of the coun-
try When President Rhee dies. It is prob-
able that the contending groups will use the
investigation of the murder in an attempt
to eliminate their competitors.
A moderate, pro-American triumvirate
compose � of Army Chief of Staff Chong, Defense Minister Sohn
and Liberal Party president Yi ICi-pung, although dependent on
President Rhee's continued support, currently appears to con-
trol the principal elements of power.
American military officials comment that
the investigation could still "turn in any direction" and hit
prominent persons.
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5. ARGENTINA REPORTEDLY OFFERED MIG7157S
BY USSR
Comment
There is no confirmation of the Soviet
offer.
Argentina has ordered 60 small piston-engine air-
craft from Czechoslovakia and was offered Czech jet planes,
but there is no confirmation of this jet offer.
The USSR would probably like to sell
some of its obsolescent M1G-15's. The "heavy bombers"
mentioned likely would be IL-28's, a
light jet bomber type which the USSR is selling to Egypt.
(Concurred,in by ORR)
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6. CAMBODIAN CROWN PRINCE RE-EMPHASIZES
NEUTRALISM ON RETURN FROM PHILIPPINES
Prince Sihanouk's visit
to the Philippines may have strength-
ened his tendency toward neutralism.
Sihanouk's statements in Manila and
on his return, as well as official press
accounts of the visit, strongly emphasize Cambodia's neu-
trality. On his return he also criticized pressure alleg-
edly exerted in Manila to induce Cambodia to join SEATO.
The Cambodian press also reported
that Sihanouk, before the Philippine Congress, justified
his forthcoming trip to Peiping by stating he could not "as
head of a nation of 5,000,000 reject friendship proffered by
the head of a nation of 600,000,000."
Comment Sihanouk has in the past acknowledged
Cambodia's dependence on Western aid
for its defense, but he has lately been at pains to build up
his reputation as a neutral. He has, moreover, tended to
look at Thailand and South Vietnam as completely respon-
sive to American influence and may have formed a similar
opinion of the Philippines.
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7. COMMUNIST CHINA TO BUILD COTTON MILL
FOR BURMA
Comment
This mill, first offered to the
Burmese more than a year ago,
will be the first complete industrial installation to be
built :in Burma by a Communist country. It will also be
Communist China's first export of a complete factory.
Burma is planning to
ask the USSR to expand a steel mill already under con-
struction and to build a fertilizer plant when a high-level
Soviet mission comes to Rangoon in May. (Prepared
jointly with ORR)
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8. SINO-CEYLONESE RICE DEAL CUTS CEYLON'S
PURCHASES FROM BURMA
Comment on:
Ceylon's decision to reduce rice
purchases from Burma this year
from 200,000 to 100,000 tons is
possible because of its acquisition,
under the Sino-Ceylonese rice-rubber agreement, of
250,000 tons of rice from Communist China.
Rangoon's disappointment over the
loss of substantial cash sales of rice to Ceylon may offset
Burma's gratitude for Peiping's barter purchases of
150,000 tons of surplus Burmese rice a year. One third
of this rice was diverted by China to Ceylon last year, and
100,000 tons will probyjbe diverted this year, despite
Burmese objections. (Concurred in by ORR)
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9. COMMENT ON SHAH OF IRAN'S VISIT TO INDIA
The Shah of Iran, who is scheduled
to arrive in India on 16 February, will probably be wel-
comed cordially despite Prime Minister ,Nehru's strong
opposition to the Baghdad pact, of which Iran is a mem-
ber. Nehru has long sought to extend India's influence
over the Middle East and is unlikely to spoil this oppor-
tunity to reiterate his neutralist principles at the same time
that he expresses his dislike of military agreements which,
he feels, are dividing the peoples of Asia.
The Shah, who personally made the de-
cision to join the Baghdad pact, will not be persuaded to
abandon it. He has already expressed his desire to make
several "forceful" speeches in India to counteract the state-
ments of Bulganin and Khrushchev. However, the Shah may
be sufficiently impressed by Nehru to develop some doubts
as to the wisdom of Iran's adherence to the pact.
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10. INDIA'S NEWLY ANNOUNCED FIVE-YEAR PLAN
The first official draft of India's
Second Five-Year Plan, published
on 9 February, indicates that Nehru's
government is determined to keep its goals high despite
criticism that by doing so it will ensure the failure of
the plan. Total investment expenditure is now anticipated
to be the equivalent of about $15,000,000,000. Government
investment plans have been raised from an original figure
of $9,000,000,000 to about $10,000,000;000 and private
investment is expected to amount to nearly *5,000,000,000.
Despite all efforts to secure the maxi-
mum quantity of finances possible, the plan still envisages
a large gap between available resources and plan targets,
$2,500,000,000 of which will be met by deficit financing.
For an additional $1,600,000,000 the government now sees
no possible source of funds. It admits that this $1,600,000,000
can be filled only by aid from international agencies and for-
eign governments over and above the quantity they are now
expected to contribute
In addition to problems of financing,
India faces shortages of administrative and technical per-
sonnel, the relative complexities of expanding heavy indus-
try under the new plan as compared to the simpler task of
increasing agricultural production under the first plan, and
the difficulties of encouraging private investment and making
use of small savings.
It apparently has already been conceded
that one politically important original aim--that of ending
unemployment�will be irripossible to achieve, though the
government hopes that unemployment fioures can be kept at
their present level.
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11. USSR TO PLAY MAJOR ROLE IN TECHNICAL
TRAINING FOR INDIA AND BURMA
Soviet sponsorship of techno-
logical institutes in Rangoon and
Bombay will give the USSR an op-
portunity to influence economic and
technical practices in South Asia.
These new institutes will be the most
advanced in that part of the world
and will give the USSR influence over
uca ion of the new Indian and Burmese technical
elite. Both countries are suffering from an acute short-
age of technicians and administrators adequately trained
to direct economic planning�especially industrialization.
The USSR, through UNESCO, will
provide technical assistance and equipment to the value
of about six million rubles ($1 500 000 at official rates)
for the proposed Western Technological Institute in Bombay,
which will be opened in mid-1957, according to the official
Indian information service. The USSR also will provide
the Indian institute with 15 Soviet professors for five-year
terms, translators to prepare English versions of Soviet
technical literature, and training facilities for 20 Indian
teachers in the USSR.
the USSR plans to furnish
similar facilities and, apparently, personnel for the insti-
tute it is to construct in Rangoon, which was planned out-
side United Nations channels. The Burmese institute, like
the one the USSR is to construct in India, will accommodate
about 1,000 students.
The Indian project appears to have been
worked out between India and the USSR early last year. The
amount allocated for it is almost double the expenditure origi-
nally anticipated when the project was approved last November
within the framework of the UN Expanded Technical Assist-
ance Program for 1956. (Concurred in by ORR)
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12. EUROPEAN INTEGRATION DRIVE FACES TWO
CRUCIAL ISSUES
Comment on:
The 11-12 February meeting in
Brussels of the foreign ministers
of the European Coal-Steel Com-
munity (CSC) countries may provide
the first opportunity for the six gov-
ernments to face up to two crucial
problems which are now confronting
the current effort to get the proposed
EURATOM and common market projects under way.
The major problem is defining the
interrelationship between the two projects. Most of the
CSC countries tend to regard them as a package deal.
It is generally believed, however, that French foreign
minister Pineau will be able to give a firm commitment
only on EURATOM. The other foreign ministers antici-
patel reduced parliamentary support for the EURATOM
project if it is divorced from the common market.
The second problem is the mounting
opposition, primarily in Prance, to the proposition that
EURATOM members should renounce the right to make
nuclear weapons. Proposals are being made that weapons
programs should be renounced unilaterally, or that
EURATOM should rule on proposed military uses of nu-
clear fuels. It is not certain, however, that these formu-
las would prove acceptable.
The current integration drive could
founder on these two problems unless they are resolved
either at the Brussels meeting or at the projected meet-
ing in March of the six governments.
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THE ARAB-ISRAELI SITUATION
(Information as of 1700, 10 February)
Members of the security and foreign
affairs committees of the Israeli parliament, including mem-
bers of the dominant Mapai party, on 7 February reflected
increasing apprehensions "amounting almOst to hysteria" over
�new press re a. rts of E ti o - 8 bomb-
ers, The
government was accused of"ficidiing while Rom hiirn
"lack of preparedness."
Syria is prepared to exchange the four
Israeli prisoners it holds for the 39 Syrians held by Israel, ac-
cording to UN truce supervisor Burns. Syrian chief of staff
Shuqa,yr also told General Burns that the army is still under
orders to prevent Syrians from fishing in Lake Tiberias, that
Syria does not and will not interfere with Israeli fishing there,
and that he is willing to pull back military outposts 250 meters
if Israel agrees to keep its police boats the same distance from
the shore. these encourag-
ing signs may incucate mat snuqayr has convinced army ex-
tremists that Syrian interests would be best served by early
compliance with the Security Council resolution. Syria's ap-
parent change of heart may also represent an attempt to ap-
pear co-operative at a time when Syria wants quick United Na-
tions action should Israel resume work
at Banat Yacov.
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