CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1955/01/26

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03179135
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: September 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: September 26, 2019
• Publication Date: January 26, 1955

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26 January 1955
Copy No, 79
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO
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CLASS. CHANGED TO: TS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
AUTH: HR 70.2.
DATE: g -nrkZQ REvlavell
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
GENERAL
�
1. USSR makes move for diplomatic relations with Japan (page 3).
SOVIET UNION
2. Comment on return of Soviet ambassadors to Moscow (page 3).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. French reported pressing Bao Dai to return to Vietnam (page 4).
SOUTH ASIA
4. Comment on Indian Congress Party's annual meeting (page 5).
EASTERN EUROPE
5. Marshal Rokossovski reportedly visiting East European
countries (page 5).
WESTERN EUROPE
6. Italian government's anti-Communist program reported at near
standstill (page 6).
LATE ITEMS
7. Pravda editor underscores emphasis on heavy industry (page 7).
8. Comment on Soviet declaration ending state of war with
Germany (page 7).
9. Somoza predicts extended guerrilla war in Costa Rica (page 8).
10. New Chinese Communist attacks on coastal islands may be
imminent (page 9).
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GENERAL
1. USSR makes move for diplomatic relations with Japan:
Moscow has made its first direct move
toward resumption of diplomatic rela-
tions with Japan, according to the Amer-
ican embassy in Tokyo. The head of the
Soviet mission--which has no official status in Japan--presented
an unsigned and undated document to Prime Minister Hatoyama at
his private residence on 25 January, stating that the USSR is pre-
pared to nominate representatives for negotiations to be held
either in Moscow or Tokyo aimed at the normalization of relations
between the two countries
Comment: The timing of the presenta-
tion of this document- -on the day after the dissolution of the Japa-
nese Diet--seems to reduce its significance in terms of obtaining
immediate resumption of relations between Moscow and Tokyo,
Moscow may, however, publicize this approach hoping to ensure
that this question remains paramount in the forthcoming election
campaign.
The Hatoyama government probably
will seek clarification of Moscow's terms and plead that its care-
taker status precludes any official commitments prior to the
election.
Previously, the Japanese have insisted
on some settlement of the questions of war prisoners, fishing
rights, and the status of the Habomai and Shikotan Islands be-
fore negotiating with the USSR, Tokyo has indicated now, how-
ever, that there are no serious impediments to bilateral negotia-
tions. On the other hand, if Moscow should insist on a simultane-
ous sotifement with Peiping, this would be a major obstacle.
SOVIET UNION
2. Comment on return of Soviet ambassadors to Moscow:
26 Jan 55
The Soviet ambassadors to France, East
Germany, Great Britain, the United States,
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Turkey, and Iran have recently :returned to Moscow. There are
some indications that the ambassadors to North Korea, Hungary,
and Czechoslovakia may also be away from their posts. Other
ambassadors may also have returned.
It is likely that these ambassadors will
be consulted on the prospects for the Paris agreements and the
probable reaction to any tougher Soviet line to counter West Ger-
man rearmament. They may also have been called home at this
time for briefing on some new turn in Soviet domestic or foreign
policy which would have an important effect on relations with the
West. Two of the ambassadors who have returned are members
of the party central committee, before which any major policy
shifts would probably be presented for approval.
The most pressing problems affecting
foreign relations probably are the need to offset prospective West
German rearmament with some increase in Orbit military pre-
paredness and the possible need of future increased commitments
to Communist China resulting from the Formosa developments.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. French reported pressing Bao Dai to return to Vietnam:
Minister for Associated States Guy La
Chambre has been pressing Bao Dai to
return to Vietnam,
chief of state
may succumb to the pressure being exerted by the French through
his aides and through General Hinh who are influencing him against
the United States.
Comment: As chief of state, Bao Dai is
in a position to undercut Premier Diem at any time. Diem is op-
posed to his return.
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SOUTH ASIA
4. Comment on Indian Congress Party's annual meeting:
Prime Minister Nehru again dominated
the Congress Party's annual convention
in Madras from 17 to 23 January. V. K.
Krishna Menon played a more important
part than in the past, being closely con-
nected with formulation of the major for-
eign policy resolution passed by the party.
The most important action taken by the
convention consisted of strongly re-emphasizing Nehru's new plan
for a socialist economy. Home Minister Pant will probably be-
come Nehru's right-hand man in implementing this plan. The em-
phasis on socialization will probably strengthen the fears of big
business that Nehru is finally in earnest about rapid socialization
of industry.
EASTERN EUROPE
5. Marshal Rokossovski reportedly visiting East European countries:
The French military attach�n Budapest
told American officials that he had re-
ceived information from Poland that
the Polish minister of national defense,
Marshal Konstantin Rokossovski, had
visit Czechoslovakia,, is now in Hungary, and will visit Rumania
and Bulgaria.
Comment: This report suggests that
steps are being taken to set up a combined East European mili-
tary command such as was discussed at the time of the Moscow
security conference in early December.
26 Jan 55 CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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Rokossovski, a top Soviet World War II
marshal, would be a logical choice to act as a front for the Soviet
Union in organizing a combined Sa.tellite military establishment.
WESTERN EUROPE
6. Italian government's anti-Communist program reported at near
standstill:
The Italian government's new anti-
Communist program which was an-
nounced last month has slowed almost
to a standstill, according to the American
army attach�n Rome. No date has been
se o a cabinet meeting mg tentatively scheduled for January to dis-
cuss the program.
Comment: When the Scelba government
announced its new anti-Communist drive on 4 December, the
premier described it as critical for the future of democratic gov-
ernment in Italy. Officials stated that failure of this program
would probably lead to the adoption of totalitarian methods to stop
Communism. Little progress has been made thus far in breaking
up Communist agricultural and business co-operatives and trading
companies or in weeding out Communist government employees.
Action on social reforms has also bogged down.
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LATE ITEMS
7. Pravda editor underscores emphasis on heavy industry:
' An article in the 24 January issue of
Pravda signed by the paper's editor,
D. T. Shepilov, berates certain little-
known economists for suggesting that the
priority given to production of consumers' goods be equal to or
greater than that accorded producers' goods. However, Shepilov
did not exclude the possibility of correcting imbalances in the
economy in particular years.
The American embassy in Moscow
believes that this article furnishes the latest and clearest in-
dication that Soviet internal economic policy has recently been
under top-level review and that while differences arose in the
course of the discussions, a firm decision has now been made in
favor of maintaining the priority for heavy industry.
Comment: A TASS announcement also
on 24 January disclosed that Deputy Premier A. I. Mikoyan had
been relieved as minister of internal trade his own request."
It is quite possible that his resignation has been accepted to per-
mit him to devote full attention to more important administrative
problems as deputy premier. The timing of the announcement,
however, suggests that Mikoyan, one of the proponents of the
consumers' goods program, has been selected as a scapegoat.
8. Comment on Soviet declaration ending state of war with Germany:
The Soviet declaration ending the state
of war with Germany appears designed
to re. -emphasize the dual purpose of the
15 January Soviet statement: to dangle before the West Germans
the prospect of diplomatic relations and to warn that if the Paris
accords are ratified Moscow will strengthen East Germany's
position in the Orbit. The USSR has sought to underscore its
determination to take new measures in East Germany by adver-
tising recent diplomatic talks with East German officials in
�Moscow and Berlin.
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The Soviet declaration, which comes
three years after similar Western declarations, makes it
clear that the Soviet Union's "rights and obligations" in Germany
under four-power agreements are not affected. Poland and
Czechoslovakia are likely to follow the Soviet lead.
Moscow's statement will have little
effect in West Germany. The declaration will probably provide
a basis for the eventual establishment of East German armed
forces and a national airline, and for the transformation of the
interzonal border into a national boundary. It might also be used
as a substitute for a peace treaty with East Germany, thereby
avoiding such problems as those involving Berlin and the Oder-
Neisse line.
,
9. Somoza predicts extended guerrilla war in Costa Rica:
Nicaraguan president Somoza on 24
January told the Organization of
American States fact-finding com-
mission now investigating the Costa
Rican-Nicaraguan dispute that the Costa Rican rebels, which
he says number up to 700, will now probably adopt guerrilla
tactics, leading to long and costly warfare. Somoza said that
the only way to stop the fighting would be for Costa Rica to
conclude a truce with the rebels, guaranteeing them amnesty
and a return of their properties.
Ambassador Dreier, United States
representative on the OAS commission, concludes that Somoza
is obviously "closely and continually in touch with the rebel
forces in Costa Rica" and "will continue to support the rebels
surreptitiously if they continue hostilities. " Dreier believes
Costa Rican government forces will have a hard time coping with
the' rebels since there is a general belief that the war is over
and volunteers are going home.
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It is likely that some fighting will
continue, but not on the large scale Somoza predicts.
10� New Chinese Communist attacks on coastal islands may be
imminent
There are several indications that
further Chinese Communist attacks
on Nationalist-occupied coastal
islands may be imminent.
Communist planes have been recon-
noitering the Tachens for several
days in a pattern similar to that noted
prior to all previous air attacks on
thes4 islands. A Peiping radio station� believed to serve a
major air force command, sent a "most urgent" message to
Shanghai on 24 January. TU-2 light piston bombers of a naval
air unit in the Shanghai area have been standing down since
22 January.
Communist artillery positions have
already been established on Ichiang, captUred on 18 January,
and the first rounds from these positions hit the main Tachens
on 24 January. Moreover, seven searchlight positions have been
established on Communist-held Toumen Island, 13 miles north
of Upper Tachen.
Roads to new
artillery positions on the mainland coast just north of the Matsus
are under repair, and new barracks have been reported in the
area. With completion of these developments, the Communists
will be able to launch simultaneous artillery and naval attacks
on all three of the major Nationalist-held island groups--Tachen,
Matsu and Quemoy.
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