CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1955/02/26

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03179133
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: September 20, 2019
• Document Release Date: September 26, 2019
• Publication Date: February 26, 1955

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26 February 1955
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CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS)(
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CLASS CHANGED TO: IS S C
NEXT REVIEW DATE: 2-0 I
AUTH: HR 70-2
DATE: 5 OSP,. & 0REWVER:
88
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THIS DOCUMENT CONTAINS CODE WORD MATERIAL
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
SOVIET UNION
10 Soviet military attache's in most Satellites recalled (page 3).
FAR EAST
2. Comment on North Korean offer to negotiate with Japan
(page 4).
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. Premier Diem favors republican form of government for
Vietnam (page 4).
4. Vietnamese officer describes Viet Minh activity in south
(page 5).
SOUTH ASIA
5. Afghanistan reported preparing to decide on Soviet aid
(page 6) .
EASTERN EUROPE
6. Yugoslays reportedly fear USSR may return to Stalinism
(page 6)
WESTERN EUROPE
7. British agree on need for early action on West German
sovereignty (page 7)
* * * *
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SOVIET UNION
I. Soviet military attaches in most Satellites recalled:
The Soviet military attaches assigned to
Czechoslovakia, Bulgaria, Rumania,
Hungary, and possibly Albania have been
recalled in the past two months, Ac-
cording to British and American military
attaches in Eastern Europe, their Soviet
counterparts paid routine farewell calls
announcing their return to Moscow,
No replacements are yet reported to have
arrived in the Satellite capitals. In
Hungary, a Soviet colonel has been
designated acting military attache,
Comment: All but one of these Soviet
attaches, who are highly qualified field
commanders with distinguished combat
records, arrived at their posts within
e p s year an a I. Their recall at this time probablyfin-
dicates an impending major change in Soviet-Satellite military re-
lations. These attaches may now participate in Soviet-Satellite
military planning,: possibly leading to the creation of some form
of joint East European command.
Such planning activities, already sug-
gested by the reported movements of Satellite leaders early this
year, would constitute implementation of the Soviet= Satellite an-
nouncement in early December that the rearmament of West Germany
would require "joint measures with regard to the organization of
(East European) armed forces and command." This was made more
specific by Foreign Minister Molotov at the Supreme Soviet on
8 February, when he referred to the necessity of creating a "unified
military command" of the USSR and its East European Satellites.
The recall of the attaches at this time may,
In addition, be part of a Soviet attempt to convince the West that
such measures are imminent.
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FAR EAST
Z Comment on North Korean offer to negotiate with Japan:
North Korea's offer on 25 February to
negotiate a trade and cultural pact with
Japan represents a further Communist
effort to woo Japan and to take advantage of the favorable atmos-
phere created by Prime Minister Hatoyama's campaign theme of
promoting Japan-Orbit friendship.
Despite Korean anti-Japanese feelings,
North Korea is apparently being forced to fit into the bloc
strategy toward Japan. The political nature of this move is
further borne out by the fact that North Korea has little export
potential.
In reply, the Japanese government has
spoken with two voices. Prime Minister Hatoyama has eagerly
embraced the offer while the Foreign Ministry has officially
rejected it. The latter's view will probably prevail since re-
sponsible Japanese officials hope to avoid antagonizing South
Korea, with which Japan enjoyed a total trade of $76,00Q000 in
1954.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
3. Premier Diem favors republican form of government for Vietnam:
Premier Diem and his supporters, in-
cluding most intellectuals, will probably
favor a republican form of government
for Vietnam, General Collins reports.
Diem is determined not to have Bao Dai or any member of his
family return in any official capacity. Diem told Collins that the
formation of a constituent assembly could not be delayed much
longer than six months, but he appears to be quite naive as to the
problems involved in the establishment of a democracy.
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He said that his government intended to
participate in the pre-election discussions with the Vietminh
commencing in July. It appeared to General Collins, however,
that Diem and his advisers had given little or no thought to the
conducting of these negotiations.
Comment: Although Diem is known to
be cool toward Bao_Dai's return to Vietnam, he has not previously
committed himself on the republic-versus-monarchy question.
This issue has remained in abeyance ever since Bao Dars ai3sump-
don of the role of chief of state in July 1949.
4. Vietnamese officer describes Viet Minh activity in south:
A Vietnamese army staff officer, after
making a survey of five provinces
immediately south of Saigon, reports
that in two provinces 60 and 70 percent
of the population are pro-Viet Minh. In the other three, only 5 to
10 percent of the population are pro-Viet Minh, but the great ma-
jority of the remainder are either terrorized into supporting the
Communists or are maintaining a neutral attitude.
The source also reports that the Viet
Minh is conducting clandestine activity throughout the area and
is maintaining an extensive courier service.
Anti-Viet Minh sentiment is largely
confined to;intellocitual WI merchant classes. The source said,
however, that although government control is being successfully
extended in some areas, the future remains uncertain in others.
Comment: Despite the Diem govern-
ment's gradually increasing stature, the fact that the five provinces
referred to--of a total of 19 in South Vietnam--were not con-
sidered Viet Minh-controlled prior to the cease-fire indicates the
magnitude of the pacification problems with which the government
is only beginning to cope.
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SOUTH ASIA
5. Afghanistan reported preparing to decide on Soviet aid:
About 21 March the king of Afghanistan
will convene a Loe Jirga--a special
assembly�to determine whether the
country should continue to accept Soviet
aid.
Comment: A Loe Jirga is an assembly
of the royal family, government officials, provincial governors,
tribal chiefs and religious leaders-whin:1s called only rarely in
moments of national emergency or extreme importance. Its
decision to reject Soviet aid, which seems likely, would be In-
terpreted as a vote of no-confidence in the prime minister.
Should Daud resign, his brother, Foreign Minister Nairn, who
is relatively friendly both toward the West and toward Pakistan,
would be most likely to succeed him.
EASTERN EUROPE
6. Yugoslays reportedly fear USSR may return to Stalinism:
The Yugoslav government is greatly
concerned over Molotov's reference to
Yugoslav transgressions and deviations
In his 8 February speech, which con-
trasts markedly with Soviet deputy premier Saburov's concili-
atory statements in November
The Yugoslays are waiting to see whether this signifies a return
to Stalinist policies which might result in a repudiation of the
Soviet-Yugoslav trade agreements.
Comment: Termed an "indisputably
negative development" by one Yugoslav official, the Moscow
shake-up is apparently seen in Belgrade as possibly presaging
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an end to the conciliatory Soviet policy toward Yugoslavia.
Belgrade has felt that this policy improved Yugoslavia's economic
and political bargaining power with both West and East.
Molotov in his speech also blamed
Soviet-Yugoslav differences on Belgrade's "drifting" from the
policies it had followed prior to the break in 1948. The
Yugoslays have categorically rejected responsibility for the
dispute and have said that "normalization" required changes in
lilloscow rather than in Belgrade.
WESTERN EUROPE
7.. British agree on need for early action on West German sover-
eignty:
situation
Foreign Secretary Eden agrees that in
view of France's continuing inability to
take decisive action, the United States
and Britain should act independently to
restore German sovereignty before
8 May, the tenth anniversary of the
armistice in Europe. Chancellor
Adenauer has recently warned that the
in Germany might be out of his control by that date.
The Foreign Office proposes that an
"interim commission" of the Western European Union powers be
established to deal with Bonn on defense matters, pending rati-
fication of the Paris accords. A top British military official
notes that West Germany would still lack a tonstitutional basis
to start rearming.
Comment: French premier Faure is
pledged to press for early action on the Paris accords by the
French Council of the Republic. Unless the council acts before
the Easter recesg,the accords will probably be amended and
returned to the National Assembly..to delay ratification until
after the June senatorial elections.
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In such an event, the West Germans
will expect the United States and Britain to act to "restbre"-West
German sovereignty and make new arrangements for German
participation in Western defense.
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