CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1958/03/29

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03177787
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March 29, 1958
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Approved for Release: 2019/08/20 C03177787 %we 3.5(c) 'Roof 29 March 19 Cc/ hcd 3.3(h)(2) 58 "93'140� 137 CPCTRAL IYTELLIGENCE BULLETIN DOCUMENT NO. NC.) CHANCE IN CLASS. I .I TO: IS sa. Nth N.I nEViEfIVD. V AUTH: DAT- pp.. REVIEWER:. Approved for Release: 2019/08/20 C03177787 Approved for Release: 2019/08/20 C03177787 ''�No 10110-SMPU- Approved for Release: 2019/08/20 C03177787 Approved for Release: 2019/08/20 C03177787 4.410.011 1.5.4 ktord 29 MARCH 1958 I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC USSR - JAEIC reports hitherto un- discovered Soviet nuclear test at Semipalatinsk on 13 March. USSR - American ambassador notes apprehensive Moscow re- action to Khrushchev's assumption of premiership. USSR apparently carrying out an- nounced troop reductions in East Germany, Hungary. II. ASIA-AFRICA Indonesia - Sukarno asks Nasir for enough weapons to equip several battalions � Djakarta iorces retain initiative on Sumatra. Saudi Arabia - Crown Prince Faysal uncommunicative in Interview with American ambas- sador. TOP SECRET Egypt offers Yemen additional military mission, which would strengthen Badr's prospects of succession. Lebanese political atmosphere becoming more tense; Chief of Army Shihab emerging as pos- sible rival to President Ciaamoun. Israel gets squadron of French Vautour jets. Japan - Conservatives expected to retain majority in Diet elec- tions expected in May, but sub- stantial Socialist gains could permit rivals to upset Kishi. III. THE WEST UK - Liberal party by-election victory strengthens impression Labor will win next general election. Panama - High government resignations threaten stability of De la Guardia administration. Approved for Release: 2019/08/20 C03177787 \ N Approved for Release: 2019/08/20 C03177787 a %raw. SI � 7 PA-6 "114) CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN 29 March 1958 DAILY BRIEF I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC Soviet nuclear tests: The Joint Atomic Energy Intel- ligence committee Iiiiate the following statement at 1530 EST, 28 March 1958: The Atomic Energy Detection System has re- ported evidence of a nuclear explosion in the USSR at about 0100 hours GMT, 13 March 1958. Although other areas of the USSR cannot be excluded, the meteorological data coupled with the radiochemical data indicates that the most likely location was in the vicinity of Semipalatinsk. USSR: Ambassador Thompson reports that reaction in Moscow to Khrushchev's assumption of the premiership, so far as it can be gauged, is one of surprise, disappoint- ment, and apprehension. Official reaction has been re- ceived thus far only from Poland and Yugoslavia. The Polish party daily ironically points out that the high spot of the Soviet leader's career came with his 1956 declara- tion on "The Cult of Personality and Its Consequences." Belgrade has taken a noncommittal position, receiving thenews with "sympathy." The Supreme Soviet has re- cessed over the week end; Gromyko's foreign policy speech will apparently not come before Monday. (Page 1) s TOP SECRET A\ , ... Approved for Release: 2019/08/20 C03177787 ii LI Approved for Release: 2019/08/20 C03177787 � --r 4,744 ie.41.4,i "31-0 ,A� Soviet troop withdrawals: Soviet troop withdrawals from East Germany and Hungary have been proceeding according to the announced schedule and will be nearly completed by the end of March. The withdrawals in East Germany were preceded by a reorganization which will lessen the impact on Soviet capabilities. There are in- dications that the units withdrawn from Hungary have been relocated nearby in the Carpathian Military District. II. ASIA-AFRICA Indonesia: President Sukarno requesting arms and equipment for several battalions in order to "strengthen the noose around the rebels." EoTptian stocks of military equipment are probably ac-i,_,-)ate to permit them to meet Sukarno's request. Nasir previously assured Sukarno that Egypt would be willing to provide "all the assistance it can give." In Su- matra, meanwhile, central government forces retain the initiative against the dissidents. Saudi Arabia: Crown Prince Faysal in his first inter- view with the American ambassador since assuming new powers was uncommunicative. Saying that-he had resumed his duties "at the King's request," Faysal o:tserved that the financial austerity program ordered by the King would be carried out rigorously and that all the difficulties in the area had arisen f2om the creation of the state of Israel, Egypt - Yemen: Egypt has offered to send additional military personnel to Yemen to assist in maintenance of armored vehicles, artillery, and other weapons which 29 Mar 58 DAILY BRIEF ii TOP SECRET � At\\ Approved for Release: 2019/08/20 C03177787 � I JZ I *019 ' Approved for Release: 2019/08/20 C03177787 . 714 Yemen has received from the Soviet bloc. Such assistance is probably also intended to support Crown Prince Badr in his plans to become the next imam. Although Badr is widely opposed, Yemen's closer association with Egypt in the United Arab States, and Saudi Arabia's probable efforts to avoid further provocation of Nasir, appear to have considerably reduced the prospects for queressful opposition to Badr. (Page 5) Lebanon: The political atmosphere in Lebanon is becoming more tense. Army Chief General Shihab is emerging as a possible opposition candidate for president. His entrance into the political arena would weaken the will of the security forces to maintain order on behalf of the present government. (Page 6) Israel- Egypt: The Israeli Air Force has recently been augmentea by delivery of a squadron of 15 Vautour twin-jet aircraft purchased from France. The exact type of aircraft cannot immediately be determined; the 600-knot Vautour is produced in three configurations: all-weather fighter, ground attack fighter, and light bomber. There have been indications that Israel hoped to acquire both all-weather and jet light bomber types (of which it had none), as well as the French Mystere IV-B jet day fighter. By comparison, recent observation of Egyptian airfields in the Cairo area detected 58 IL-28 jet light bombers. Iapan: The governing Liberal-Democratic party prob- ably will retain its Diet majority in the general election ex- pected in May, but if Socialist gains are significant, Prime Minister Kishi's authority would probably be weakened, and he might eventually lose his position as head of the party and the government. Kishi's rivals within his party would be very likely to exploit such gains to remove him. (Page 7) 29 Mar 58 DAILY BRIEF iii ger SECRE Approved for Release: 2019/08/20 C03177787 Approved for Release: 2019/08/20 C03177787 T.imor Nrwor Pe/ III. THE WEST .13;1'itaLl: The Liberal party's victory in the Torrington by-election highlights the anti-Conservative trend that has reduced the Conservative share of the popular vote in 31 of the 32 by-elections held since the 1955 general election. This will tend to weaken the Macmillan government's posi- tion at home and abroad by strengthening the impression among many observes that it is likely to lose the next zen- eral election to the Labor party. (Page 8) Panama: Political and personal differences within Panama's ruling clique are beginning to pose a threat to the stability of moderate President de la Guardia's govern- ment. The pressure groups seeking to remove him from office are likely to employ such anti-US tactics as cam- paigning for larger annual payments for the canal. (Page 9) 29 Mar 58 DAILY BRIEF iv TOP SECRET \ \\\ NN v\x\\ Approved for Release: 2019/08/20 C03177787 Approved for Release: 2019/08/20 C03177787 I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC Reaction to Khrushchev Appointment Ambassador Thompson, reporting early reaction, says that on the one hand there is a feeling among the Soviet people that their lives will again be subjected to the whims of one man; on the other, a feeling of relief from the indication that internal strife will be avoided. On balance, however, the reaction, as far as it ban be gauged, is one of surprise, disappointment, and appre- hension. According to Western press sources, most Polish front pages carried pictures of Khrushchev, but the party daily and the youth paper in their captions pointed out that a high spot of the Soviet leader's career was his 1956 dec- laration on "The Cult of Personality and its Consequences." These same sources state that private opinion among Polish Communists appeared mixed: most were resigned to a wait-and-see attitude, but few could hide their fears that the Soviet system might again degenerate into a personal despotism. Yugoslavia's initial reaction came at the Foreign Ministry's weekly press conference on 28 March, at which a Yugoslav spokesman stated that "the naming of Khrushchev as prime minister of the Soviet Union has been received in Yugoslavia with sympathy." Tito has sent "warm wishes" to Khrushchev for the "further flourishing of your socialist homeland...." Western press reports state, however, that ordinary Yugoslays feel concerned about the latest Moscow development. The Supreme Soviet will not hear Gromyko's foreign policy report until at least Monday or Tuesday. Saturday has been set aside for the work of legislative committees-- a departure from usual Supreme Soviet procedures--and Sunday will be a normal holiday. CONFIDENTIAL 29 Mar 58 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 1 Approved for Release: 2019/08/20 C03177787 Approved for Release: 2019/08/20 C03177787 1.4 %�,11. 1064 Withdrawal of Soviet Troops From East Germany And Hungary Soviet announcements that 41,000 troops from East Germany and 17,000 from Hungary would be withdrawn apparently are being carried out. Seven of the ten de- parture ceremonies scheduled in East Germany between 27 February and 10 April have taken place so far and sufficient departing trains have been noted to transport the troops scheduled to leave. As of 25 March, the train movement began to decrease, and withdrawals will prob- ably be nearly completed by the end of March. The USSR would still have 20 line divisions in East Germany, strengthened by a reorganization in the past year and by a new system of sending only trained Soviet personnel to Germany. Western observers report that the departing troops and equipment are below standard in quality. Five Soviet division-level units will remain in Hun :_;a..;, in contrast to two prior to the revolt in October 1956. All Soviet troops apparently have been evacuated from �two towns' in eastern ' Hungary, and withdrawal ceremo- nies have reportedly taken place in five other towns. Western observers have stated that complete withdrawal from all seven of these towns would account for most of the announced 17,000 reduction in Soviet forces in Hungary. the headquarters of an army and two divisions formerly in Hungary have been tentatively identified in the Carpathian Military District. TOP SECRET 29 Mar 58 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 2 Approved for Release: 2019/08/20 C03177787 Approved for Release: 2019/08/20 C03177787 v4iime IL ASIA-AFRICA Situation in Indonesia President Sukarno has personally requested through the Egyptian Embassy in Djakarta that Egypt supply arms, am- munition, parachutes, and other unidentified equipment for at least five battalions and possibly more, according to an intercepted Egyptian message. He explained that his purpose in obtaining additional supplies was to "strengthen the noose around the rebels." Sukarno requested that the Indonesian Embassy in Cairo not be informed of his proposal, probably an indication that he believes there are dissident sympathiz- ers in the embassy who might delay or seriously obstruct the deal. There are rumors of increasing antigovernment senti- ment in West Java, and of the possibility of a coup attempt in Djakarta within the next two weeks. Such action could be stimulated by Colonel Kawilarang, commander in West Java until mid-1956 and recently military attache in Washington, for whom a number of local officers retain sympathy. Ka- wilara,ng is reported to have decided to join the dissident cause. His present whereabouts is not known. The army intelligence chief, Lt. Col. Sukendro, visited South Celebes from 23 to 26 March, apparently to appraise the situation there with a view to mounting an attack on Me- na,do, dissident center in North Celebes. An Indonesian in- telligence officer claims the central government intends to attack Menado soon. According to an aide of President Su- karno, however, such action will not be undertaken un Central Sumatran rebellion is quelled. TOP SECRET 29'Mar 58 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page Approved for Release: 2019/08/20 C03177787 Approved for Release: 2019/08/20 C03177787 .11.1LFI4.L .11L 1401,114 Saudi Crown Prince Interviewed by Ambassador Heath Ambassador Heath's first interview with Crown Prince Faysal since the latter assumed broad powers over Saudi internal and external affairs was "unrewarding." Physical- ly, the crown prince appeared far from well, although he contended that all he lacks is stamina since there is nothing organically wrong with him. He said he had resumed his duties of prime minister and foreign minister "as a loyal servant of the King" at Saud's "request." Faysal avoided comment on the political situation in the area except to assert that the difficulties in the region had all arisen after the creation of Israel and that any "im- provement" in American policy toward Israel would "un- doubtedly be reflected in an improvement of the general situation." Faysal's only specific statement indicative of his own plans was that the financial austerity program previously ordered by King Saud would be carried out rigorously. This statement might be taken to suggest that Saudi Arabia's financial difficulties were indeed a primary factor behind Faysal's resumption of political activity; while pressure from Nasir was the occasion for the action. z _CONFIDENTIAL_ 29 Mar 58 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 4 Approved for Release: 2019/08/20 C03177787 Approved for Release: 2019/08/20 C03177787 A 'V A. Ire ILA 1464 A �iesW Egypt Offers Increased Assistance to Yemen The Egyptian commander-in-chiefi Field Marshal Amir, and Yemeni Crown Prince Badr have discussed the dispatch of additional Egyptian military personnel to Yemen to assist the Yemenis in maintenance and training on the armored vehicles, artillery, and other military equipment received from the Soviet bloc. Amir ()tiered to provide as many muatary teennicicui i_ ts a,b 'light be required. Nasir's close cooperation with Badr, who was probably chiefly responsi- ble for promoting Yemen's affiliation with the UAR, appears intended not only to extend Egyptian influence in Yemen but also to help Badr overcome internal opposition and succeed his ailing father as Imam. 13adr and Nasir apparently desire to avoid a direct mil- itary challenge to Britain, but to apply indirect pressure through subversion and terror in Aden Protectorate The British have again expressed to US officials their concern over the increasing threat to their position in the whole of Aden. Yemen's closer association with Egypt, and the prob- able termination under Faysal of Saudi Arabian efforts to overthrow the Imam and Badr, appear to have reduced con- siderably the prospects for successful opposition to Badr. -retl-sEERE-T 29 Mar 58 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 5 Approved for Release: 2019/08/20 C03177787 Approved for Release: 2019/08/20 C03177787 NNW. Lebanese Political Situation Lebanese President Chamounts maneuvers to ensure parliament's approval of a constitutional amendment allow- ing him to run for re-election are meeting increasing public opposition. A manifesto issued on 27 March by the Presi- dent's opponents exhorted the populace to rise up and force him to resign should he try to tamper with the constitution. As a first move against Chamoun, his enemies plan to call a general strike and lead a street demonstration which they believe would lead to disorders necessitating army interven- tion. The group is confident that army commander General Shihab would refuse to back Chamoun in the face of public disorders, thus forcing the President out of office. Shihab is being propelled by events into the position of a possible contender for the presidency. In the present circumstances, it is uncertain.if thesecurity forces:wbuld; be willing to maintain public order in the interests of the present pro-Western government. The chiefs of the gendar- merie and police believe their forces are capable of ensur- ing security in Beirut, but not in the countryside. Psychological warfare by both Chamoun and his oppo- nents, including veiled threats and undercover activities, are aggravating the already delicate situation. TOP SECRET 29 Mar 58 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 6 Approved for Release: 2019/08/20 C03177787 Approved for Release: 2019/08/20 C03177787 SECRET Japanese Election Prospects Japanese Prime Minister Kishi's thinking on general elections is that action on essential legislation including the budget will be completed by 20 April, after which the lower house of the Diet should be dissolved and the new house elected in May. Kishi may introduce a controversial measure in the Diet, such as a bill limiting the activities of labor, to provoke Socialist objections that would give him an excuse for dissolving the Diet. Kishi, who has given Japan sound leadership, is handicapped by an inability to develop personal popularity, and he is dependent on the achievements of his administra- tion for voter appeal'. He has suggested to Ambassador MacArthur that a favorable US attitude on pending prob- lems, such as a concession to Japan on the Okinawa prob- lem, would strengthen the conservatives. Although the conservative Liberal-Democratic party is expected to retain a majority in the Diet, any significant Socialist gains probably would be exploited by Kishi's rivals in the governing party in an attempt to weaken his position and eventually remove him from the leadership of the party and the government. Kishi's rivals will have much greater prospects of removing him if Socialist strength in the Diet increases by more than ten seats 29 Mar 58 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 7 Approved for Release: 2019/08/20 C03177787 Approved for Release: 2019/08/20 C03177787 ...+011.../. .16 Noe III. THE WEST By-election Loss Damaging Blow to Macmillan Government The Conservatives' loss of the Torrington, Devonshire, parliamentary seat to the Liberals in the 27 March by-elec- tion is the worst blow yet suffered by the Macmillan govern- ment. While the Conservatives retain a comfortable par- liamentary majority of 40, their percentage of the popular vote has fallen in 31 out of the 32 by-elections held since the 1t355 general election, including 18 since Macmillan be- came prime minister in January 1957. This loss of a formerly Liberal but now normally "safe" Conservative seat will strengthen the iniprpssion among many observers that the Labor party is bound to win the next general election, which must be held within two years. This view will prob- ably add to London's difficulties in dealing with such prob- lems as Cyprus where disputants anticipate policy changes under a Labor government. The party's leader, Jo Grimond, in a pre-election conversation with Ambassador Whitney, indicated that the Liberals' steadily increasing popularity, gained mainly at the expense of the Conservatives, could force the gov- ernment to negotiate electoral alliances with the Liberals in many more constituencies than it has in the past. Such an arrangement might double the Liberals' present par- liamentary holding of six seats out of 630. Torrington's evidence of Liberal resurgence nevertheless may be ex- pected to lead more ambitious party workers to press for an un,compromising political offensive. '-e4ATFLRENT-Fith 29 Mar 58 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page Approved for Release: 2019/08/20 C03177787 Approved for Release: 2019/08/20 C03177787 TA. A.A.AAAL T Noe' IWO Opposition to Panamanian President Increases Opposition to President Ernesto de la Guardia is in- creasing among powerful pressure groups in Panama, which appear ready to compose their own differences in an effort to oust him. They will probably attempt to incite public op- position to the president's cooperation with the United States by criticizing his failure to press the recent campaign de- manding 50 percent of the gross income of the Panama Canal. Chief organizer of the disgruntled elite, which sees its long control over lucrative politico-economic power threat- ened by De la Guardia t moderate reforms, is probably for- mer President Harinodio Arias, a publisher who wields ex- tensive backstage power. One of his sons resigned this week as finance minister and another as ambassador to London. Arias has previously exploited the canal issue for political purposes and can be expected to use it again; one of his pro- teg6s in the Foreign Ministry originated the 50-percent cam- paign. Nationalistic appeals and claims for larger canal payments could easily arouse the many thousands of rest- less, unemployed Panamanians who already tend to blame their country's critical economic situation and their own poverty on US control of the canal. De la Guardia's retention of the presidency will prob- ably depend on the continued support of the national guard, Panama's only armed force. Corrupt guard leaders, how- ever; are susceptible to opposition pressure because the president's policies may endanger their own widespread bu iness activities. ( -CONFIDEN-T1741- 29 Mar 58 CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN Page 9 Approved for Release: 2019/08/20 C03177787 A �i: Approved for Release: 2019/08/20 C03177787 � ' s: N : N Narf k.ame CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN 29 March 1958 DAILY BRIEF I. THE COMMUNIST BLOC Soviet nuclear tests: The Joint Atomic Energy Intel- ligence committee issued the following statement at 1530 EST, 28 March 1958: The Atomic Energy Detection System has re- ported evidence of a nuclear explosion in the USSR at about 0100 hours GMT, 13 March 1958. Although other areas of the USSR cannot be excluded, the meteorological data coupled with the radiochemical data indicates that the most likely location was in the vicinity of Semipalatinsk. This report is based on the analysis of radio- active debris collected in the vicinity of Japan on 15 March. The time of origin was established by radio- chemical means from excellent samples of fresh radioactive debris. USSR: Ambassador Thompson reports that reaction in Moscow to Khrushchev's assumption of the premiership, so far as it can be gauged, is one of surprise, disappoint- ment, and apprehension. Official reaction has been re- ceived thus far only from Poland and Yugoslavia. The Polish party daily ironically points out that the high spot of the Soviet leader's career came with his 1956 declara- tion on "The Cult of Personality and Its Consequences." Belgrade has taken a noncommittal position, receiving the news with "sympathy." The Supreme Soviet has re- cessed over the week end; Gromyko's foreign policy speech will apparently not come before Monday. (Page 1) Soviet troop withdrawals: Soviet troop withdrawals from East Germany and Hungary have been proceeding according to the announced schedule and will be nearly completed by the end of March. The withdrawals in East Germany were preceded by a reorganization which will lessen the impact on Soviet capabilities. There are in- dications that the units withdrawn from Hungary have been relocated nPnrilx7 in the Carpathian Military District. (Page 2) Approved for Release: 2019/08/20 C03177787