CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1957/11/22

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03177763
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2019
• Document Release Date: December 20, 2019
• Publication Date: November 22, 1957

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CURRENT
INTELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
P.3: TS S C
NEX �ATE: eptki-tt
OAT
REVIEWER:
OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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JCONTENTS
1. COMMUNIQUE OF MOSCOW COMMUNIST MEETING
(page 3).
2. WEST GERMAN CHANCELLOR CRITICAL OF NATO
(page 4).
3. PARIS PRESSES ALLIES ON NORTH AFRICAN ISSUES
(page 5).
4. EGYPT AND SYRIA RENEW PROPAGANDA ATTACKS ON
KING HUSSAYN (page 6).
dlie- 5. ISRAELI-JORDANIAN BORDER TENSION
(page 7).
6242-
eAk
6. TURKEY TO MAINTAIN STRONG MILITARY FORCE NEAR
SYRIAN BORDER (page 8).
7. PACKAGE SETTLEMENT OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
INDIA AND PAKISTAN MAY BE EXPLORED
(page 10).
8 POSSIBLE LIT IN PAKISTAN'S NEW GOVERNMENT
COALITION (page 11).
9. MALAYAN PRIME MINISTER MAY MEET WITH INSURGENT
COMMUNIST LEADER (page 12).
10. DISAFFECTED INDONESIAN LEADERS PLAN CONTINUED
DEFIANCE OF GOVERNMENT (page 13).
11. PRESSURE GROWING WITHIN JAPAN FOR CONCESSIONS TO
PEIPING TRADE DEMANDS (page 14).
12. MAO LEAVES TOP MILITARY AND SCIENTIFIC REPRESENTA-
TIVES IN MOSCOW (page 15).
13. ANTIGOVERNMENT DEMONSTRATIONS BY STUDENTS IN
VENEZUELA (page 16).
ANNEX--Conclusions of the Watch Report of the Intelligence
Advisory Committee
(page 1).
22 Nov F7 Current Intelligence Bulletin
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1. COMMUNIQUE OF MOSCOW COMMUNIST MEETING
Comment on:
The communiqu�greed to by the leaders
of the 12 Sino-Soviet bloc Communist par-
ties, who met in Moscow from 14 to 16
November, expresses confidence that there
has been "a decisive switch in the balance
of forces" in tie world "in favor of socialism!' The implica-
tion throughout the communiqu�published on 22 November,
is that the West will sooner or later be obliged to accommo-
date itself to bloc positions on international problems.
The communiqu�eeks to exploit recent
Soviet technological advances with claims that the "peace camp"
is capable of asserting "ever-increasing influence on the inter-
national situation." The United States is attacked in extremely
harsh terms and accused of trying to use its "positions-of-
strength policy" to enslave "most countries of the world." Since
war might be started by "bellicose imperialist maniacs," the
Warsaw Pact organization must be "strengthened and preserved."
This statement is aimed at offsetting any strengthening of West-
ern unity and military potential which might result from the
NATO conference in December.
On the question of bloc unity, the commu-
niqu�n effect reaffirmS Khrushchev's predominant position by
repeating in general terms the views expressed by him in his
anniversary speech. Intrabloc relations are to be based on the
principles expressed in the USSR's October 1956 declaration--
strongly endorsed by Peiping- of equality, independence, non-
interference and mutual benefit. These relations, as Moscow
and Peiping have previously insisted, are to be worked out
through "comradely discussion!'
As for the internal programs of Commu-
nist states, the communiqu�eaffirms certain "basic laws" re-
lating to Communist party dictatorship and orthodox economic
policies. In a gesture of accommodation to Poland--suggesting
22 Nov 57
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an improvement in Polish-Soviet relations--the usual point
about the necessity for collectivization of agriculture is re-
placed by a new concept of "gradual socialist reconstruction
of agriculture."
The communiqu�oes not provide for the
re-establishment of an international Communist organization.
This failure, the delay in issuing the communiqu�and the
omission of the. Yugoslav Communists as a signatory sug-
gest that difficulties were experienced in formulating the
statement.
--so iar uncomirmea lay any oniciai Communist
announcement--states that an additional declaration was signed
in Moscow to which Yugoslavia also subscribed.
22 Nov 57
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2. WEST GERMAN CHANCELLOR CRITICAL OF NATO
Comment on:
Chancellor Adenauer told former US
High Commissioner for Germany John
J. McCloy that the December NATO
meeting must provide new inspiration
or this would be the "end of NATO." Adenauer suggested
that the earliest date for voluntary withdrawal from NATO
be set back from 1968 to 1978 and that NATO air and ground
forces be integrated along the lines of the original European
Defense Community plans. He also indicated he would sup-
port the integration of Europe's air forces. As presently
organized, Adenauer said, NATO would "collapse" before a
Russian attack. Adenauer said he was surprised and shocked
by the content of a German intelligence report on Soviet mis-
siles.
He saw a greater need for political consul-
tations, and sharply criticized the United States for failing to
consult its allies on policies which he said had brought NATO
"close to the risk of war." He complained that the American
representatives at NATO do not now have the necessary knowl-
edge or authority for such consultations. Adenauer asserted
that there is an "air of doubt" surrounding continued American
participation and interest in NATO as a result of Soviet scien-
tific advances.
Bonn has recently appeared to be moving
in the opposite direction. West Germany is reluctant to con-
tinue the payment of support costs for troops stationed in
Germany and has refused to participate in financing the con-
struction of sites for Nike missiles. In addition, Bonn re-
vealed on 16 November a further cutback in its scheduled con-
tribution to NATO forces and has indicated a greater interest
in building up its non-NATO home defense forces, at a rate of
100,000 annually.
22 Nov 57
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3. PARIS PRESSES ALLIES ON NORTH AFRICAN ISSUES
Comment on:
French Premier Gaillard continues to
nsist that France's allies must take
steps to assure tight controls over
Tunisian arms in order to re-establish
Atlantic solidarity. He has proposed
hat future shipments be determined by
Tunisia's actual military needs and on
he basis of consultation. The French
Foreign Ministry has asked the United
tates and Britain to furnish the serial
umbers of the weapons in last week's ship-
ents as an additional check against possi-
le diversion of The arms to Algeria.
aillard's stiffening demands, particu-
larly his request that the US and Britain
accept France's "pre-eminent right" in North Africa, have wide
popularity in France. Some of the usually pro-American seg-
ments of the press are carping over the "disappointing" results
of the Washington talks between Foreign Minister Pineau and
Secretary Dulles. Most of the ill feeling is directed at London,
however, and Prime Minister Macmillan is expected to try to
reassure Gaillard during his 25 November trip to Paris.
French frustration over the arms issue
will probably cause Gaillard to continue his strong nationalistic
stand during the Algerian debate scheduled to resume in the
National Assembly on 26 November,
22 Nov 57
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4. EGYPT AND SYRIA RENEW PROPAGANDA ATTACKS
ON KING HUSSAYN
Comment on:
The Egyptian-Syrian propaganda cam-
paign against Jordan's King Hussayn
has been renewed after a brief lull and
now is concentrating on the King's pro-
Western policies, on key officials of the present pro-Western
government, and on alleged manifestations of American in-
fluence in Jordan. Cairo's particular emphasis now seems to
be directed at Jordan's Bedouin tribes, which form the core
of the King's support in the Jordanian army. The American
ambassador and military attach�n Jordan have also been
singled out for specific attack.
Cairo's attacks on Hussayn had abated
last week end
the Egyptian
radio and press effort contained too many demonstrably false
news items which Jordanian officials were using to discredit
the whole campaign. Cairo's renewed campaign has been car-
ried principally by the "Voice of the Arabs" radio program;
however, the role of the Cairo press is much smaller than
previously.
22 Nov 57
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5 ISRAELI-JORDANIAN BORDER TENSION
Comment on:
Tension is mounting along the Israeli-
Jordanian border in the Jerusalem
area as a result of Jordan's refusal
to permit the inclusion of gasoline in
the supplies carried by the semimonthly
Israeli convoy supplying installations in
the Mt. Scopus demilitarized zone--an
enclave within Jordanian territory. The
Jordanian army commander on the scene
stated he personally restrained his troops
from firing at the Israelis_when the convoy
arrived the second time. Jordan has also
charged that an Israeli patrol opened fire
on 21 November and abducted a Jordanian about 40 miles north-
west of Jerusalem. An Israeli military spokesman,, meanwhile,
announced that Jordanians had opened "heavy" fire on an Israeli
patrol, possibly in the same action.
The Jordanians feel the need for a tough
attitude on this and similar questions involving Israel, since
Egyptian and Syrian propaganda already charges that King Hus-
sayn is a "traitor" who is gradually surrendering Arab Jerusalem
to Israel. The Israelis too may well be taking advantage of Jor-
dan's internal and external troubles to improve their defensive
position on Mt. Scopus, which, like another Jerusalem section
where the Israelis recently have engaged in disputed activity, is
a strategically commanding terrain feature.
22 Nov 57
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6. TURKEY TO MAINTAIN STRONG MILITARY FORCE
NEAR SYRIAN BORDER
Comment on:
Turkey has altered its basic defense
concepts to take into account the con-
tinuing potential threat from Syria,
and, despite the current withdrawal,
intends to maintain a strong military posture in the
Iskenderun-Urfa area. Units scheduled to remain perma-
nently in the vicinity of the Syrian border, which Turkey
now regards as "merely an extension of the Soviet border,"
21 NOVEMBER 1957
22 Nov 57
TURKEY
� ISLAHIYE
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SYRIA
� ALEPPO
CYPRUS
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LEBANON
ISRAEL
�URFA
IRAN
SYRIA IRAQ
DAMASCUS
BAGHDAD.
Current Intelligence Bulletin
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include the 5th Armored Brigade with 51 M-47 tanks, the
1st Tank Battalion with 38 M-36 tanks, which has been in
the area since November 1956, and one unidentified heavy
artillery battalion.
The acting chief of the Turkish General
Staff, General Menguc, intends to press for activation of
another armored brigade equipped with M-48 tanks and for
sufficient vehicles to completely mechanize the 39th Infan-
try Division permanently located at Iskenderun. Menguc
wants to consolidate the armed forces in the Iskenderun
area into one mobile corps.
22 Nov 57
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7. PACKAGE SETTLEMENT OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
INDIA AND PAKISTAN MAY BE EXPLORED
Comment on:
Concern among Indian and Pakistani
� ls over their respective economic
ms during recent months, particu-
larly the competing demands of military
and development expenditures, apparently has caused a grow-
ing realization that a settlement of the major disputes between
the two countries must precede any solution of the economic
dilemma. Interest in the possibility of bilateral negotiations
between India and Pakistan on a package settlement of outstand-
ing differences is evident among high-level officials of the two
governments.
Indian Finance Minister Krishnamachari
believes Pakistan's Finance Minister Amjad Ali will be in-
structed by President Mirza to sound out Indian reactions to
talks along these lines when Amjad Ali attends the Common-
wealth Parliamentary Conference in New Delhi from 2 to 6
December. Krishnamachari apparently expects his opposite
number to use their discussions of mutual financial problems
to bring up the Kashmir and canal waters issues. If Prime
Minister Nehru's reaction to such a Pakistani approach is fav-
orable, Krishnamachari plans to pursue the idea of an over-all
settlement under cover of the bilateral economic conferences
scheduled later in December.
The concessions necessary for a settlement,
however, probably could be produced only through lengthy and
arduous negotiations. Action in the UN Security Council on
the Kashmir question during the next few weeks is likely to in-
crease the bitterness between the two countries, and thus in-
hibit any serious negotiations.
22 Nov 57
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8. POSSIBLE SPLIT IN PAKISTAN'S NEW
GOVERNMENT COAT ITION
1.11111 unL
on.
Pakistan's President Mirza, returning
from his European tour on 24 Novem-
ber, will face a crisis in the one-month-
old Republican - Moslem League coalition
led by Prime Minister Chundrigar unless
Keep differences between the two parties
are soon reconciled.
A segment of Mirza's Republican party
apparently is unwilling to follow through on the party's com-
mitment of mid-October to support Moslem League policy on
the two outstanding internal issues, namely to re-enact the
system of separating the electorate by religious communities
and to maintain West Pakistan as a single province until the
elections promised for November 1958 are held.
If some measure of agreement between the
coalition partners cannot be reached, the Moslem League may
withdraw its support and force the government's resignation.
Mirza presumably would then be left with the alternatives of
turning once again to former Prime Minister Suhrawardy to
lead a new coalition, or resorting to authoritarian rule on the
pretext that the latest breakdown makes it "obvious" that a
parliamentary form of government is not feasible in Pakistan
at this time.
22 Nov 57
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9. MALAYAN PRIME MINISTER MAY MEET WITH INSURGENT
COMMUNIST LEADER
Comment on:
The recent movement of Malayan police
security guards into the vicinity of Com-
munist headquarters near the Thai border
suggests that preparations are under way
for a meeting between Prime Minister
Rahman and Communist leader Chen Ping.
The two men met in December 1955 but
reached no agreement. New talks would be a
follow-up to Chen's letter of 12 October re-
questing talks and stating that he believes a mutually satisfac-
tory agreement can now be reached. Although Rahman is still
officially insisting on unconditional surrender, he has recently
intimated that he may be willing to compromise as long as a
settlement does not involve recognition of the Communist party.
Any in,...lination Rahman may have toward
softening his attitude toward the Communist terrorists, however,
is undoubtedly balanced by his realization that they will have ample
opportunities for "peaceful subversion" if they are permitted to
emerge from the jungle. In this connection, the continuing Chi-
nese student riots have been the first indication that the post-
independence communal "honeymoon" may be coming to an end
and that further interracial friction is to be expected.
22 Nov 57
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10.. DISAFFECTED INDONESIAN LEADERS PLAN CONTINUED
DEFIANCE OF GOVERNMENT
Comment on:
Disaffected commanders in Sumatra and
East Indonesia continue to defy the central
government and expect few or no conces-
sions from Djakarta at the 25 November
national conference. Although they plan
42) attend the conference, they regard it as
merely another episode in their struggle
with President Sukarno. They intend to
insist on greater local autonomy and a national policy of anti-
Communism.
The commanders consider former Vice
President Hatta sympathetic to their cause but not a strong
leader. They expect to continue their efforts independent of
Hattais own negotiations with Sukarno.
The Sumatran dissident leaders are con-
vinced that Java is going Communist, but are still reluctant
to take radical steps which could lead to the severing of rela-
tions with Djakarta since they are not sure that such action
would have complete popular support. Lt. Col. Sumual in
East Indonesia, who is in touch with Sumatran leaders on an
irregular basis, claims, however, that he will break with the
central government if the Communists win control in Java. In
the event of a break with the central government, Sumual and
the Sumatran leaders might rally behind Colonel Zulkifli Lubis,
former acting army chief of staff.
Both Sumatra and East Indonesia are con-
tinuing to export raw materials, mainly to Singapore, and are
retaining most of the proceeds. Local leaders state that these
funds--supplemented by disbursements still being received by
Djakarta--are barely sufficient to maintain administrative opera-
tions and have indicated a desire to obtain foreign assistance
through "unofficial" channels.
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11. PRESSURE GROWING WITHIN JAPAN FOR CONCESSIONS
TO PEIPING TRADE DEMANDS
The Japanese government is under grow-
ing pressure to facilitate the conclusion
of an unofficial trade agreement with
Communist China, the American embassy
in Tokyo reports.
Following the return of an unsuccessful
trade mission from Peiping on 4 November, press and busi-
ness circles have been urging the government and conserva-
tive leaders to do something to break the impasse, principally
a disagreement over the size and privileges of a proposed
permanent Chinese Communist trade mission in Japan.
Comment Japan's minister of international trade and
industry announced on 19 November that the
government will introduce a bill into the regular Diet session
early next year relaxing fingerprint requirements to which Com-
munist China has objected. Press reports indicate that the gov-
ernment is prepared to extend further quasi-diplomatic privileges
to a Chinese trade mission in order to conclude an agreement for
trade valued at $100,000,000 each way annually.
22 Nov 57
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12 MAO LEAVES TOP MILITARY AND SCIENTIFIC
REPRESENTATIVES IN MOSCOW
Comment on:
Mao Tse-tung, who returned to Peiping
from Moscow on 21 November, left be-
hind his top specialists in military and
scientific matters. Mao probably reached
a broad understanding with Soviet leaders
on these subjects, leaving the details of new agreements to be
worked out,
The 12 Chinese military leaders remain-
ing in Moscow include the defense minister, the chief of staff,
and commanders of the air force, navy, armored forces, ar-
tillery, and supply services. Negotiations between these of-
ficials and their Soviet counterparts may cover plans for sup-
plying the Chinese with up-to-date weapons.
Peiping's large scientific representation
now in Moscow includes the head of the Chinese Academy of
Sciences and 85 ranking scientists. They are seeking Soviet
advice and aid for Peiping's Twelve-Year Plan for advancing
Chinese science and an agreement on "scientific and technical
research and cooperation between China and the Soviet Union."
22 Nov 57
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13.� ANTIGOVERNMENT DEMONSTRATIONS BY STUDENTS
IN VENEZUELA
Antigovernment rioting by students in
Caracas on 21 November probably was
designed to spark a nation-wide protest
against President Perez' plan to have
himself elected to a second five-year term by an unopposed
plebiscite vote on 15 December. The disturbances were
well organized and caused considerable property damage,
Police in Caracas
subsequently succeeded in confining the rioting to the campus
of the Central University. To avoid further violence the gov-
ernment may close the schools during the election period.
Unless the police use brutal methods, the
student outbreaks probably will not lead to a serious problem
for the regime's efficient security system. Moreover, the
largely suppressed and disorganized opposition does not ap-
pear capable of seizing upon the student action to challenge
Perez' perpetuation in office. The principal threat to Perez
would be a split in the armed forces--a development which
thus far appears unlikely. The government recently jailed
the formerly powerful national guard commander without any
reported effects on the loyalty of the top military. Although
the Catholic hierarchy has been at odds with the regime since
last May, it has not shown any intent to use its limited polit-
ical influence directly against Perez' re-election scheme.
22 Nov 57 Current Intelligence Bulletin
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