CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1957/11/14

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03177760
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 12, 2019
• Document Release Date: December 20, 2019
• Publication Date: November 14, 1957

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CURRENT
INTELLIGENCE
BULLETIN
DOCUMENT r 10.
14 November 1957
Copy No.
) I
NO Cl-sANOi-,_ IN CLASS. yt
CLASS. CI-IANGED TO: T
NEXT REVIEW DATE:
AUTH: HI /41)
DATE. frit_. REVIEWER:
13S
3.5(c)
3.3(h)(2)
OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
W/M/07A
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Pg.
CONTENTS
1. POSSIBLE PREPARATIONS FOR SOVIET SATELLITE/ICBM
FLIGHT TEST (page 3).
2. SOVIET DEFENSE MINISTRY MAY BE REORGANIZED
(page 4).
3. INTERNATIONAL COMMUNIST LEADERS HOLD MEETINGS
IN MOSCOW (page 5).
4. DEATH .OF CZECHOSLOVAK PRESIDENT
(page 6).
5. BRITISH FORP.TaNT SF.CRETARV PESSIMISTIC OVER JORDAN
SITUATION (page 7).
6. BELGIAN RIFLES ISSUED TO SYRIAN PARAMILITARY GROUPS
(page 8).
X.6 7. TUNISIA'S PRO-WESTERN POLICY MAY HINGE ON ARMS
&
DELIVERIES (page 9).
8. PEIPING OFFERS ECONOMIC AID TO INDONESIA
(page 10).
9. PRESIDENT GARCIA WINNING RE-ELECTION IN PHILIPPINES
(page 11).
10. PEIPING MAKES NEW BID FOR OFFICIAL REPRESENTATION
IN HONG KONG (page 12).
14 Nov 57
* * * *
THE TAIWAN STRAIT
(page 13)
Current Intelligence Bulletin Page 2
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1. POSSIBLE PREPARATIONS FOR SOVIET
SATELLITE/ICBM FLIGHT TEST
Comment on:
the Soviet KRUG direction-finding
complex indicate that tracking activ-
ities, possibly with a balloon for a
target, previously associated with
prefiring preparations at the Tyura Tarn missile test range
were tried on 13 November. A resumption of this activity
was scheduled for about 0509Z on 14 November.
Similar KRUG tracking activities with
balloon targets were noted a few hours prior to the launch-
ing of the first two earth satellites. The balloons apparently
are used for determining upper air data.
The local Tyura Tam range net began
a period of practice 4- and 5-hour count-downs less than 46
hours after the launching of sputnik II on 3 November. This
practice has been conducted daily through 10 November and
may be continuing. On three of these days, the direct link
between Tyura Tam and Klyuchi as well as the local Klyuchi
net were also active, suggesting an impending operation.
Such extensive practice operations have
not been observed before on this range, suggesting that the
test event for which this practice is being conducted is of an
important and possibly advanced nature in the earth-satellite
vehicle and/or ICBM fields. This event may occur in the near
future, possibly within two or three days.
14 Nov 57
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2. SOVIET DEFENSE MINISTRY MAY BE REORGANIZED
Comment on:
The possibility that Zhukov's ouster
as defense minister will result in a
major shake-up in the ministr has
been hei h
the new de-
fense minister, Marshal Rodion Mal
inovsky, has already transferred sev-
era oya rien s of Zhukov and relieved numerous high
officers of their commands,
the future of Chief of Staff
Sokolovsky is hanging in the balance and that he may be
replaced by his predecessor, General Semyon Shtemenko,
who is described as an anti-Zhukov man.
Creation of separate ministries for
the air force and the navy is currently being planned,
Such a move would break up
the concentration of power hitherto held by the Ministry
of Defense and make party control easier, but at some
sacrifice of centralized military responsibility. At
Stalin's death, the Navy Ministry was merged with the
Ministry of War, but there has never been a separate
air ministry.
14 Nov 57
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two, *NS
3. INTERNATIONAL COMMUNIST LEADERS HOLD
MEETINGS IN MOSCOW
Comment on:
Plans for some type of international
Communist grouping are probably be-
ing discussed in Moscow, and an an-
nouncement may be made in this con-
nection in the next few days. Since
the conclusion of the 40th anniversary celebration on 9
November, bilateral meetings have been held by individ-
ual Communist delegations with the Soviet leaders. These
have included delegations from "Eastern Europe, Yugo-
slavia, the Asian Communist states, and from most other
nations represented by Communist party members," ac-
cording to a Moscow announcement. According to an of-
ficial Budapest broadcast of 13 November, world Commu-
nist leaders will hold a conference in Moscow which "will
open at the end of this week, probably Friday, and will last
until Monday," with a communiqu�o be issued at Its conclu-
sion.
In view of the reported objection by
Chinese, Polish, and Yugoslav Communist leaders to an
international organization which would be closely controlled
by the USSR, a number of loosely associated regional group-
ings may be announced. Arrangements probably would be
made for the publication of a central press organ and for
periodic meetings in which an "exchange of experience"
could be conducted.
14 Nov 57
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4. DEATH OF CZECHOSLOVAK PRESIDENT
Comment on:
The death of Czechoslovak President
Zapotocky on 13 November probably
will not seriously affect the stability
of the Czechoslovak Communist regime
or its relationship with the USSR. The
office of president has gradually lost its influence in party
and government affairs in recent years largely because of
Zapotocky's declining health. Actual political power has
come to be divided between Party First Secretary Novotny
and Premier Siroky, Novotny being probably the most in-
fluential figure in the regime. Khrushchev reserved his
warmest expressions of regard for Novotny during the
Soviet delegation's tour of Czechoslovakia in July.
There have been signs of rivalry be-
tween Novotny and Siroky, but they may agree on a mu-
tually acceptable candidate for the presidency. Deputy
Premier Vaclav Kopecky, author of the government's "hard-
line" cultural policy, is such a potential compromise choice
for the office. Precedent, however, favors the "promotion"
of Siroky to the presidency. The last two presidents, Gott-
wald and Zapotocky, were promoted from the post of premier.
Zapotocky as president acted as a brake on the rivalry be-
tween Siroky and Novotny which will be missing if Siroky
becomes president. There would also be contention between
the two over the naming of a new premier.
14 Nov 57
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5. BRITISH FOREIGN SECRETARY PESSIMISTIC OVER
JORDAN SITUATION
Reference:
British Foreign Secretary Selwyn
Lloyd is seriously concerned that
the West may in a short time be con-
fronted with the fait accompli of a
Syrian-Egyptian coup in Jordan, pos-
sibly preceded by the assassination of
King Hussayn. He told American Min-
ister Barbour on 12 November that
Nasir is rapidly becoming so committed by his anti-
Hussayn radio campaign that he may feel compelled to
follow through with action. Lloyd doubted that some kind
of Anglo-American intervention can be avoided although
he questioned the feasibility of such a move.
14 Nov 57
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6. BELGIAN RIFLES ISSUED TO SYRIAN
PARAMILITARY GROUPS
Comment on:
The Belgian 7. 62-mm. NATO-type
rifles currently being issued to
Syrian paramilitary youth groups
are part of a consignment of 10,000
such weapons ordered by Syria from
Belgium in early 1956 and subsequently paid for. De-
livery of the rifles was held up as a result of hostilities
in Sinai in November 1956; however, the weapons were
finally shipped to Syria in early 1957 after Damascus
demanded delivery or its money back. Since that time
most of the rifles have been held in storage for issuance
to paramilitary youth and popular resistance groups, but
some were recently found in arms caches in Lebanon and
Jordan.
Belgian NATO-type rifles have also
been sold in quantity to Israel. The first Soviet bloc
arms reached Syria in late December 1955.
14 Nov 57
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7. TUNISIA'S PRO-WESTERN POLICY MAY HINGE ON
ARMS DELIVERIES
Reference:
President Bourguiba s chief problem--
to establish in the eyes of the Tunisian
people the reality of Tunisian independ-
ence and sovereignty--will be aggravated
by the delivery of French arms. French
Foreign Minister Pineau informed the
American ambassador in Paris on 12
November that French arms--presumably
equipment for a battalion�would be transferred to Tunisia.
Bourguiba has sought arms from various
Western sources not only to supply his unequipped army,
from which France has withheld promised equipment, but
also to break France's hold over his country. He resents
French attempts to regulate Tunisia's relations with other
countries and any implication that other Western powers ac-
cept French domination of the country.
The shipment of 2,000 Egyptian-made
rifles which is en route to Tunisia is expected to reach Tunis
on 15 or 16 November. Its arrival probably will be followed
by an expansion of Egyptian influence, which Bourguiba has
sought to forestall.
Under these circumstances, Bourguiba,
faced with strong opposition within his government to his out-
spoken support for the West, may feel impelled to mend his
political fences by revisin7 this pro-Western alignment.
14 Nov 57
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8. PEIPING OFFERS ECONOMIC AID TO INDONESIA
Comment on:
During the recent visit of former
ndonesian Vice President Hatta to
Peiping, Chinese Communist officials
old him that they are willing to grant
imited economic aid to Indonesia, ac-
cording to an Indonesian newspaper. Planned to reach
$20,000,000, the aid would consist of such items as tex-
tile machinery and other industrial equipment needed by
Indonesia's consumer industries.
Peiping has made economic grants to
Cambodia and Nepal, and payments on a grant to Ceylon
will commence next year. As a nation capable of aiding
Indonesia's economic development, Peiping would win ad-
ditional prestige among Asians.
President Sukarno claimed in July that
Mao Tse-tung had made him an informal offer of military
equipment during his visit to Peiping in October 1956.
The Indonesian government has repeat-
edly expressed its willingness to accept aid from any nation
provided "no strings are attached." In arranging specific
projects, however, Indonesia has been indecisive and pro-
crastinating, and since September 1956, has stalled off
final approval of a Soviet aid agreement in the amount of
$100,000,000.
Although a modest Chinese aid program
might be more acceptable to the government and to Sukarno
than extensive Soviet aid, Indonesian officials might not be will-
ing to risk the adverse reaction of the anti-Communist, anti-
Djakarta dissident leaders in the provinces.
14 Nov 57
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9. PRESIDENT GARCIA WINNING RE-ELECTION
IN PHILIPPINES
Comment on:
The trend of returns from the Philip-
pine elections of 12 November shows
President Carlos Garcia winning re-
election by a comfortable majority
over his nearest rival, Liberal party
candidate Jose Yulo. The pro-Amer-
ican Liberal party vice-presidential
candidate Diosdado Mac apagal, how-
ever, is defeating Garcia's Nacionalista running mate,
Jose Laurel, Jr.
Garcia's success is due largely to the
advantages he held as the incumbent as well as to a strong
party machine. He must also have convinced many voters
that he would carry on the foreign and domestic policies
of the late President Magsaysay. Another factor may have
been the election day typhoon which struck the northern
Philippines, where antiadministration sentiment is the
strongest.
The defeat of Laurel, together with the
fourth-place showing of ultranationalist presidential candidate
Senator Claro Recto, indicates that anti-American sentiment
was not an important consideration in this election. There
may, however, be a resurgence of intense nationalism in
the near future as one of Garcia's first major undertakings
is expected to be a review of US-Philippine relations, in-
cluding a revival of negotiations on the "modernization" of
the American military bases agreement.
14 Nov 57
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10. PEIPING MAKES NEW BID FOR OFFICIAL
REPRESENTATION IN HONG KONG
n trade talks last month in Peiping
ith the under secretary of the British
oard of Trade, Chou En-lai raised
he question of official Chinese Com-
munist representation in Hong Kong,
Chou had first asked in Feb-
ruary 19b6 for London's approval of a plan to station a
Chinese Communist "commissioner" in the colony. Com-
munist representation in Hong Kong may be Peiping's price
for increasing trade With Britain.
The British government takes the view
that Communist representation in the colony would be in-
tolerable.
Chou's maneuver is in line with a prop-
aganda campaign which features Peiping as the champion
of Chinese residents of Hong Kong. Peiping asserts that
the Hong Kong authorities are treating Chinese residents
unfairly and are also incapable of maintaining order and
security in the colony.
14 Nov 57
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SUMMARY
10 October - 13 November 1957
THE TAIWAN STRAIT
Report of the IAC Current Intelligence Group
for the Taiwan Strait Problem
1. There were no significant combat operations in the area
during the period.
2. The flight of up to 15 Chinese Communist jet light bomb-
ers from Peiping to Canton on 29 October marks the first ob-
served appearance of IL-28's this far south. While this move
may be a temporary deployment, it may also presage the perma-
'nent move of the entire 10th Air Division, equipped with an esti-
mated 60 IL-28's, to South China. The basing of jet light bombers
in the Canton complex would materially increase Chinese Commu-
nist offensive capabilities in the South China area as well as aug-
menting the jet light bomber force already capable of strikin
Taiwan and the offshcre islands from the Shanghai area.
14 Nov 57
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TAIWAN STRAIT SITUATION
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OW NORTHEAST (P)
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12,000
TAINAN (P)
- Railroad Kaohsiung 0 (P) Chiang
- �I� Railroad under construction
TUNGKONG
Selected road ISENGCHUN (P)
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170 210 NAUTICAL MILES
MATSUS
2,3 000
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SUNGSHAN (P)
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116
100
118
200 STATUTE MILES
120
4,000
'AIR BASE-
SYMBOL
AIRFIELDS WITH *
DELINEATED RUNWAYS
RUNWAY SURFACE
0
7000 feet or over
(P) � Permanent
(T) � Temporary
(NI � Natural
(UC) � Under Construction
(UNK) � Unknown
*
6000 feet to 6999 feet
*
5000 feet to 5999 feet ,
ill
4000 feet to 4999 feet
tSeaplane
station
STATUS OF AIR FACILITIES
OPERATIONAL �Air facilities printed in red are known or evaluated to be consistently
used by military or civilian aircraft.
SERVICEABLE �Air facilities printed in green are known or evaluated to be capable
of use by aircraft.
OTHER � Air facilities printed in black are those under construction, unserviceable,
or on which the availability of information is such that the current status
cannot be determined.
*Delineated runways are explained as a defined or marked area anus airfield
prepared or selected for landing and take-off of aircraft.
13 NOVEMBER 1957
ory-in r"Te
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