CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1956/11/08

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03176910
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: October 25, 2019
• Document Release Date: October 31, 2019
• Publication Date: November 8, 1956

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8 November 1956
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SC No. 05743/56 /
CONTINUED CONTROL Copy No, 112
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OFFICE OF CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
0007,/%71 /:01/0A TOP SE CR :77/4r0 .10:14
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CONTENTS
1. THE SITUATION IN EGYPT
(page 3).
2. REPERCUSSIONS OF SUEZ DISPUTE IN IRAQ (aeer�
)et ITS) (page 5).
3. TURKEY NOTIFIED THAT FIVE SOVIET WARSHIPS
SEEK DARDANELLES TRANSIT (S.P...avet-ticiftrfri) (page 6).
4. FACTORS IN BRITISH AND FRENCH CEASE-FIRE
DE CISION gs_crat-- (page 7).
5. THE HUNGARIAN SITUATIOb
(page 8).
6. WESTERN EUROPE TO FEEL OIL SHORTAGE SOON
icunticlent-ia-1101751-7'n (page 9).
7. NEW WAVE OF FRENCH ANTI-COMMUNISM (Cianikle
(page 10).
8. YUGOSLAV OFFICIALS COMMENT ON SOVIET TROOPS
IN HUNGARY (Seefet)-(page 11).
9. POLAND RELEASES ALL DEFENDANTS IN POZNAN
TRIALS (-Genfittent arin5age 12).
I/0. PLOT TO KILL SOUTH KOREAN VICE PRESIDENT
REPORTED (page 13)0
ANNEX: Conclusions of the IAC Watch Committee
op-Seeaset-Naturfrj (page 14).
8 Nov 56 Current Intelligence Bulletin
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I. THE SITUATION IN EGYPT (information as of 2200,
7 November)
Sniping reportedly continued in Port
Said on 7 November despite the an-
nouncement of Anglo-French accept-
ance of a cease-fire. There is still
no confirmation that the allied forces
are occupying Ismailia, midway on
the canal, and the over-all extent of
the allied occupation has not been made
clear.
The Egyptian government has still not
recognized formally that a cease-fire
exists, although in practice fighting
between organized units of the Egyp-
tian army and the Anglo-French forces
appears to have stopped, at least tem-
porarily.
The Nasr government's reluctance to
announce an unequivocal acceptance of the cease-fire may
stem in part from a desire to keep its record free from the
taint of surrender, but it may also arise from a belief that
the USSR is coming to Egypt's assistance. Nasr's chief
aide, Ali Sabri, told an American official in Cairo on 6
November that reports from the Egyptian ambassador in
Moscow and from Soviet ambassador Kiselev in Cairo had
convinced Sabri that the USSR is prepared to "go all the
way" even if it risks World War III. Kiselev told Sabri
that the USSR had completed a review of its military situa-
tion and was prepared for World War III over Egypt if
necessary.
8 Nov 56
Current Intelligence Bulletin
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'rare Nemo
Sabrits statements, made before the
cease-fire was announced, may have been designed to has--
ten American action, though he may also be convinced that
the USSR will intervene.
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%roe Nowie
2. REPERCUSSIONS OF SUEZ DISPUTE IN IRAQ
Antigovernment demonstrations in
Baghdad touched off by the Anglo-
French intervention in Egypt are re-
ported under control, but anti-British
sentiment could still result in the gov-
ernment's fall and Iraq's withdrawal from
the Baghdad pact.
that there was considerable sentiment
hostile to Britain and Prime Minister
Nun i Said in the army, and that if the
army were oraei�ed to protect Nun i and the British it might
not obey. Nun, the symbol of Iraq's association with
Britain and the Baghdad pact, is reported by the American
embassy to be ill and disconsolate.
British-French collusion with Israel is
widely believed and bitterly resented. Several cabinet min-
isters are reported to have told Nun i that the temper of the
country would no longer permit the continuation of the
Baghdad pact with British participation.
the British were anging on y
fingernails" in Jordan and Iraq, and there was great con-
cern in London that the Nun i government might be over-
thrown, with a break in diplomatic relations and the loss
of Iraqi oil to the West as consequences. .4.1110,FLOPc*-
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SEER-ET
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Immo' Irmo�
3.. TURKEY NOTIFIED THAT FIVE SOVIET WARSHIPS SEEK
DARDANELLES TRANSIT
The USSR requested on 4 November
that the Turkish government permit
five warships to transit the Bosporus
from he Black Sea,
I As of 6 November Ankara had
not replied.
Under the Montreux Convention, Black
Sea powers are required to notify the Turkish government
of an intention to transit the Straits eight days prior to ac-
tual transit. By this provision, the first date the Soviet
ships could transit would be 11 November. There is no
provision whereby Turkey may refuse transit unless it
considers itself under the threat of war.
In the light of British and French fleet
concentrations, five ships would be only a token force,
perhaps to display the USSR's flag in the area and ostensi-
bly to protect Soviet merchantmen.
In notes to Britain and France on 4 Novem-
ber, the USSR stressed the illegality of the Anglo-French
"blockade" of the eastern Mediterranean and Red Sea as be-
ing in violation of the 1888 Convention. ....(140P0
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4. FACTORS IN BRITISH AND FRENCH
CEASE-FIRE DECISION
A smoldering cabinet revolt may have
contributed directly to London's deci-
sion to abandon the military drive in
Egypt. A powerful group of cabinet
ministers headed by R. A. Butler,
leader of the House of Commons, is
reported in the London press to have
demanded that Prime Minister Eden
bring an end to the fighting. Accord-
ing to the American embassy in London,
the deep division in Britain turned on
both the moral issues and, of more im-
mediate consequence, on Britain's international reputation,,
the Commonwealth, the Anglo-American relationship, the
United Nations, and Britain's own precarious economy.
A major cause of French acceptance,
was Paris' concern over a report
that the bombing of Israeli towns by Russian planes operat--
ine from Syrian bases was imminent.
Mollet is being strongly
criticized oy important elements of public opinion for ac-
cepting a cease-fire prematurely, particularly while Nasr
is still in power. Much of the military probably holds this
view, and in the opinion of the American embassy would be
tempted to reopen hostilities if provoked in any way. De-
fense Minister Bourges Maunoury is reported to have held
out against the cease-fire decision and to have urged that
if necessary France should continue the war alone.SalFetirgi
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Nitre Noose
5. THE HUNGARIAN SITUATION (information as of 1700,
Fighting continues in Budapest and in
a number of areas in the rovinces,
resist-
ance forces were still active in nine
cities other than the capital, at least
up to 6 November. American corre-
spondents at the American legation
reported on 6 November that "the
heaviest continuous shelling yet" had been heard in Budapest
during the early evening and that at least four pockets of
resistance in the city continue to hold out, one of which is
defended by Hungarian artillery.
According to a 6 November report
Soviet troops in Budapest
nave been systematically slaughtering men, women and
children continuously for the past three days. "Despite
this, the resistance evidently is not yet entirely broken.'"
Soviet atrocities have been confirmed
a Soviet division ordered one of its subordinate units to sur-
round a village and "burn it down." another
Soviet unit was ordered to shoot a captured insurgent leader
and to "destroy his family."
The legation, commenting on the Soviet
offer of food and medical supplies to Hungary, notes that
whatever the motives of this offer, the Soviet action in
Budapest will starve out the people, "andthe Soviets can-
not help but know it:'
The longer the freedom fighters hold
out and the more the Soviets resortto slaughter, the more dif-
ficult Premier Kadar's task will become. Effbrts to date to
restore transportation facilities and to resume industrial
production have met with little success.
8 Nov 56 Current Intelligence Bulletin
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memo, Now,
6, WESTERN EUROPE TO FEEL OIL SHORTAGE SOON
Britain and France are preparing emer-
gency measures to meet the interruption
of petroleum supplies from the Middle
East. Britain has ordered companies
to "under-deliver" petroleum products
by 10 percent beginning on 7 November,
and the Ministry of Fuel and Power ex-
pects a 25-percent cut to dealers before
long.
The first effects of the Suez Canal clo-
sure and sabotage of pipelines will be
felt in Britain within a week, after which up to three weeks
will be required for tankers diverted around the Cape to
reach Britain. Britain has four weeks' supply of crude oil
products and six to eight weeks' supply of refined products.
France has an estimated two and a half
months' supply of most petroleum products, but the lack of
more than a four to five weeks' supply of heavy industrial
fuels led to a 7 November cabinet meeting to consider ration-
ing. West Germany has a supply unofficially estimated at
three weeks of crude oil and two months of gasoline.
Avoidance of full-scale rationing in
Britain and several other countries will depend in part on
OEEC's success in spreading available supplies and in ob-
taining more from the western hemisphere. ' The British
Treasury has agreed to make dollars available for pur-
chases, but British officials have complained that so far
little western hemisphere crude oil has been offered. The
OEEC oil committee will meet on 14 November, if not earlier
as urged by some members, to deal with the allocation prob-
lem. (NOD)
8 Nov 56
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7. NEW WAVE OF FRENCH ANTI-COMMUNISM
The mob attack on the French Commu-
nist headquarters in Paris on 7 Novem-
ber points up a sudden wave of anti-
Communism in France. Communist
deputies' indifference to bloodshed in
Hungary at the very moment they de-
cried French intervention in Egypt
has infuriated French public opinion
and has almost completely isolated
the party.
An attempt to outlaw the Communist
Party for its "antinational" attitude is under way in the
al Assembly, and
believe it would receive approval if assured of Social-
1st support. Traditional French apprehensions over the
repercussions of such a move make it unlikely, however,
and the government may limit itself to imposing strict con-
trol over party activities. There is some pressure for the
arrest of party leaders, but such action is unlikely in view
of difficulties encountered in 1953 in trying to lift the par-
liamentary immunity of top Communist leaders.
The Communist Party has called for or-
ganized demonstrations on 9 November, although the govern-
ment is reported to have banned all Communist meetings in or-
der to prevent possible rioting.
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%ES %we
8. YUGOSLAV OFFICIALS COMMENT ON SOVIET TROOPS
IN HUNGARY
he Yugoslav ambassador in London
told Ambassador Aldrich on 6 Novem-
er that he was personally convinced
that Soviet troops would have to leave
Hungary "within a short time." He in-
sisted that if they do not, relations
etween the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia
will become "very difficult."
The previous day a Yugoslav Foreign
Ministry official told an American embassy official in
Belgrade that he did not think Soviet troops would remain
permanently in Hungary. He said the Soviet leaders "have
had a lesson and know they can't go on forever with their
domination, and will have to loosen control, but the loosen-
ing will have to be controlled and regulated,"
Comment Yugoslavia, in its limited public comment
on the Soviet intervention in Hungary, has
described the move as regrettable but necessary in view of
the role assumed by "reactionary forces."
Belgrade supports the new Kadar govern-
ment and has called for the prompt establishment of rela-
tions between it and the USSR on a basis of equality and non-
interference so that Soviet troops can be withdrawn and
Communism can be developed in Hungary through the efforts
of the Hungarian people themselves.
While the Yugoslays no doubt welcome the
re-establishment of a Communist regime in Budapest, they
cannot be indifferent to the potential threat posed by large num-
bers of Soviet troops in Hungary.
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9. POLAND RELEASES ALL DEFENDANTS IN
POZNAN TRIALS
A 6 November announcement of the
office of the Poznan prosecutor stated
that all indictments have been dropped
against persons awaiting trial for al-
ledged offenses in the Poznan riots.
The announcement explained that the riots were a result
of "errors and distortions of the past era" and incorrect
behavior by certain authorities. Most of the defendants
who have already been tried and sentenced have been re-
leased, although three youths convicted of murdering a
policeman are apparently still serving prison terms.
Comment The Polish radio announced earlier
that at least some of the indictments
for actions taken during the riots would be reviewed. In
his first speech after returning to power, Gomulka blamed
the Poznan riots on the party's neglect of the people rather
than on the faults of the individuals involved, which indi-
cated the new regime's reluctance to pursue the trials fur-
ther. jclabird-IBENTIATT
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%aro' INNS
10. PLOT TO KILL SOUTH KOREAN VICE
PRESIDENT REPORTED
accused Liberal Party leader Yi Ki-
pung, the home minister, and a former police chief of
masterminding the plan, which allegedly calls for a "spon-
taneous" attack on Chang during a demonstration in Seoul,
urging revolution in North Korea.
Comment
Suspicions that the Rhee administration
was involved in an earlier attempt on
Chang's life were embarrassing to the regime. "Spon-
taneous" demonstrations calling for revolution in North
Korea are being staged, and the National Police have been
alerted for possible internal disorders at any time after
8 November.
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ALI .4-4 J. N. .11LJ
ANNEX
The Watch Committee of the IAC met
in regular session at 1030 on 7 Novem-
ber. The conclusions were:
A. No Sino-Soviet Bloc country intends to initiate hostili-
ties against the continental US or its possessions in
the immediate future.
B. 1. Recent Soviet activities reflect an effort to improve
the Soviet military posture and readiness to deal
with the critical world situation.
a. Soviet troop movements, alerts and other
military activities in the Satellites and the
USSR do not indicate intentions to initiate
hostilities in the immediate future against
non-Bloc territory in Europe, including
Turkey, or US forces abroad.
b. As a result of its own statements and ac-
tions, the USSR is under much political
pressure to come to the aid of the Arabs.
There are many indications that the So-
viets are preparing to provide volunteers
and equipment, particularly in the form of
of pilots and aircraft, to Syria and some
other. Arab states in as yet unknown quan-
tities. There are no known Soviet mili-
tary moves which conclusively reflect a
Soviet intention to intervene unilaterally
in the Middle East.
2. An unprovoked North Korean attack on South Korea
is unlikely at the present time. Nevertheless,
President Rhee, encouraged by tensions elsewhere,
has launched a propaganda campaign for the reuni-
fication of Korea by subversion or force. This
campaign, accompanied by subversion or force,
could lead to a major incident between North and
South Korea. ILDESECIZET-1405-MITIT-
8 Nov 56
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