CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1952/04/01

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03176570
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: May 24, 2019
• Document Release Date: May 30, 2019
• Publication Date: April 1, 1952

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SECURI INFORMATION
1 April 1952
Copy No. 4
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN
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Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
FAR EAST
1. Comment on new South Korean Defense Minister (page 3).
2. Communist report epidemic in North Manchuria (page 3).
3. Prospects of businessmen in Shanghai bleak (page 4).
4. French industrialists may force withdrawal from Indochina (page 5)..
SOUTH ASIA
5. India allegedly fears for future of United Nations (page 5).
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
6. Former Iranian Prime Minister seeks US support (page 6).
7. Britain and Egypt unable to agree on Sudan question (page 6).
8. Libya not considering Arab League membership (page 7).
WESTERN EUROPE
9. Cominform leader in Trieste rejects rapprochement with pro-
Titoists (page 7).
10. Possible Soviet moves in Berlin examined (page 8).
11. Some influential Adenauer supporters favor delay in Allied-
German negotiations (page 8).
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FAR EAST
1. Comment on new South Korean Defense Minister:
On 29 March Radio Pusan announced the
resignation of the ROK Defense Minister,Yi Kipong,and the appointment
of his successor, Shin T'ae-yong.
The replacement of Yi Kipong, highly regarded
both by the UN Command and by the ROK Army, was probably brought
about by his increasing affinity for the Democratic Nationalist Party,
President Rhee's political opposition. The choice of Shin rae-yong as
his successor is unfortunate.
Shin, who rose to the rank of lieutenant
colonel in the Japanese Army,became chief of staff of the ROK Army
in late 1949. He was described by American military observers as
an incompetent officer without strong convictions. In April, 1950, he
was relieved upon the urgent request of former Minister of Defense
Sihn Song-mo.
A political intimate of President Rhee, Shin
was active during the US occupation of South Korea in a secret, terror-
istic and strongly nationalistic youth organization.
Shin's appointment continues the trend of
filling the Rhee cabinet with mediocre but personally loyal ministers.
2. Communists report epidemic in North Manchuria:
A transport plane was scheduled to leave
Peiping on 31 March and to proceed to
Tsitsihar in northern Manchuria_ The
mission, \
3
was to investigate the epidemic."
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Comment: Tsitsihar is much farther north
than the areas of Manchuria which the Communists declare were violated
by American biological warfare attacks.
epidemics in
Manchuria and China proper are widespread. Although
do not confirm the existence of epidemics on a scale
unprecedented attention by the Chinese
unusual for China,
to the epidemic threat.
3. Prospects of businessmen in Shanghai bleak:
that a "veritable frenzy" of accusations and
confessions has seized Shanghai in recent
weeks. There has been an "epidemic of
suicides" and commercial life has practically
stopped.
The executives of French business concerns
expect grave difficulties very soon. They anticipate imprisonment if
foreign currency is not remitted to them to settle Chinese claims.
These businessmen are "practically unanimous" in believing that they
have no choice but to liquidate their enterprises in the best way possible
and to leave China as soon as they can.
Comment: The current Communist campaign
to discredit Chinese merchants and industrialists as a class is respon-
sible for the "frenzy" reported above. Foreign businessmen are in
disfavor both as businessmen and as foreigners, and most of them are
reported to agree with the French estimate of their prospects.
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4. French industrialists may force withdrawal from Indochina:
French industrial and export interests may 3.3(h)(2)
initiate a press campaign against the continued
drain of wealth and manpower in Indochina if
they fail to obtain substantial tariff preferences
in the trade discussions scheduled to start 18 April with the Associated
States. The Economic Counselor of the French High Commission, who
has just returned to Saigon from Paris, is convinced that French troops
would be withdrawn from Indochina within three months after the launching
of such a press campaign by big business.
Minister Heath comments that extensive prefer-
ences for French interests would defer the development of stable political
institutions in the Associated States and also further reduce the number
of adherents to the Bao Dai government.
Comment: French business interests have
supported the military effort in Indochina on the assumption that France
would retain economic dominance when peace is established.
Even with business hostile, a complete with-
drawal is unlikely for reasons of prestige. Nevertheless, a fettering
of French economic activity in Indochina would probably result in
determined efforts by France to arrive at a negotiated peace with the
Viet Minh.
SOUTH ASIA
5. India allegedly fears for future of United Nations:
at discovering the extent to which the Indian
Government intends to remain aloof from all
international organizations and blocs, including the United Nations,.
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illustrated this point by stating that no reference to the United Nations,
similar to that included in the San Francisco pact, had been made in the
preamble of the Indian draft of the proposed Indian-Japanese bilateral
peace treaty. Indian representatives had explained the omission by
stating that "the future of the United Nations was uncertain and that its
existence could be only ephemeral."
Comment: India's policy of neutrality between
East and West is well known, as is its active participation in UN affairs.
The Indian draft treaty was obviously worded to a oid all ossibilit of
offending Communist China and the Soviet Union;
NEAR EAST - AFRICA
6. Former Iranian Prime Minister seeks US support:
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Former Iranian Prime Minister Ahmad Qavam 3.3(h)(2)
has approached the American Embassy in Paris
seeking US support should he be named Prime
Minister. Qavam said that he does not want
the premiership unless he is drafted by the Majlis and has the full confi-
dence of the Shah and Parliament.
Comment: Qavam is the strongest candidate
for Prime Minister outside the National Front and, despite his advanced
age,he is one of the few able leaders in Iran. He is, however, distrusted
by the Shah, who would be unlikely to approve him except as a last resort.
7. Britain and Egypt unable to agree on Sudan question:
Egypt and Britain have made a little progress 3.3(h)(2)
in their talks on the proposed defense of the
Middle East, but the Egyptian Foreign Minister
has reiterated that no real agreement is possi-
ble without British recognition of Farouk's title as King of the Sudan.
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The Foreign Minister issued what was "practi-
cally an ultimatum" that Britain give its answer on the Sudan by 1 April
in order that Prime Minister Hilali might determine what action he should
take in regard to the 18 May elections. The American Ambassador,
however, intends to advise Egypt's officials not to insist on the 1 April
time limit.
8.. Libya not considering Arab League membership:
Libya has no intention of joining the Arab 3.3(h)(2)
League at this time, according to the American
Minister in Tripoli. The Minister noted that
the King's speech at the opening of Parliament
contained friendly references to other Arab states, but no mention of the
Arab League. When the American Minister commented on this omission,
the King said that it was enough to know one's friends without joining an
organization for that purpose.
Comment: While there is considerable
sentiment among Libyans generally favoring Arab League membership,
Libya resents the interference of the League, particularly of Egypt; in
its domestic affairs.
Since the new Libyan Government recently
invited the construction of American military installations in Cyrenaica
and expressed interest in joining the proposed Middle East Command,
King Idris may consider it more profitable now to strengthen Libya's
ties with the West rather than those with the Arab countries.
WESTERN EUROPE
9. Cominform leader in Trieste rejects rapprochement with pro-Titoists:
The leader of the pro-Yugoslav Communist
Party in Trieste, Branko Babic, has proposed
a rapprochement with Vittorio Vidali, leader
of the Trieste Cominform party,
appears to have rejected the proposal.
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Comment: This is the first instance of a
Yugoslav approach to pro-Cominform leaders in Trieste for joint action
against the pro-Italian elements. It has been reported recently, however,
that the Babic party, which is small and ineffective, has been attempting
to split the Cominform group by accusing Vidali of betraying the cause of
an independent Trieste.
10. Possible Soviet moves in Berlin examined:
Although American officials in Berlin believe 3.3(h)(2)
that recent reports of a
Russian plan for another Berlin blockade were
planted by the USSR as part of a "scare campaign,"
they anticipate increased harassing in Berlin at the time of West Germany's
signing or ratification of the contractual agreements.
These officials doubt that the Russians will
step up interference in Berlin at the present time, however, particularly
while they are trying to attract West German sympathy for their unity and
peace proposals.
Comment: Soviet harassing measures in
Berlin have slackened in recent months, although the USSR is still causing
some inconvenience by delaying the approval of export permits and by the
occasional closing of some canal locks on the routes to Berlin.
11. Some influential Adenauer supporters favor delay in Allied-German
negotiations:
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Although Chancellor Adenauer wants the current
negotiations on the contractual agreements and
the European Defense Treaty to be concluded
speedily, some of his coalition supporters, in-
cluding right-wing Free Democrats and left-wing Christian Democrats,
now want these discussions delayed.
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This small but growing group of influential
politicians desires a complete exploration of the 10 March Soviet proposal
before any steps are taken which might close the door on German unification.
Certain important industrial circles, eager for markets in East Germany,
are also showing signs of heightened interest in the Soviet unity offer.
The US High Commissioner observes that some
parliamentary deputies may become more critical of the terms of the
contractual agreements,feeling that their bargaining position has been
strengthened by the Soviet offer.
Comment: The attitude of Adenauer's coalition
members towards slowing the present negotiations will depend largely on
the nature of the Soviet reply to the Allied note of 25 March. A reasonable
Soviet offer for all-German elections may cause Adenauer difficulty in
getting the contractural agreements accepted.
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