CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN - 1951/05/24

• Document Type: SPECIALCOLLECTION
• Collection: Current/Central Intelligence Bulletin Collection
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 03176558
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: U
• Document Page Count: 9
• Document Creation Date: March 18, 2019
• Document Release Date: March 28, 2019
• Publication Date: May 24, 1951

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'taw/
Nov
24 May 1951
Copy No. cf-1
CURRENT INTELLIGENCE BUL Titiygs
DOCUMENT NO.
NO CHANGE IN CLASS.
ri DECLASSIFIED
CLASS. CHANGED TO: 73 Six) -
NEXT REVIEW DATE: .0..._
. AUTH: FIR 70
DATE,
,EVIEWEI
Office of Current Intelligence
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUMMARY
USSR
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FAR EAST
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US officials in Indochina ask urgent delivery of promised-1
materiel (page 5).
NEAR EAST
. USSR is sending planes and men to combat locusts in Iran (page 6).
EASTERN EUROPE
3.3(h)(2)
'1)#k4641,11165
Comment on exchange of territory by Poland and USSR (page 7).
US Embassy foresees possibility of Czech-US Tiiiplomatic break
(page 7).
WESTERN EUROPE
9. US to consult Italy on aid to Yugoslavia (page 8). )2179-4,
10. Madrid demonstration meets with partial success (page 9).
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GENERAL
1. India counsels Burma a ainst has UN a. .eal over Chinese Nationalist
IntrildPrs!
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According to the Indian Secretary General
of the Ministry of External Affairs, the
Indian Ambassador in Rangoon had been in-
structed to suggest to the Burmese Prime
Minister that Burma not take hasty action in appealing to the UN for
aid in controlling refugee Chinese Nationalist forces in Burma. In
addition, the Indian Ambassador in Peiping has been asked to explain
to the Chinese Communists that Burma is not voluntarily harboring
the Nationalists and is attempting to disarm and disband them.
Comment: It is India's concern to prevent
the development of instability in Burma and to forestall any possible
Chinese Communist intervention in that country. The Burmese
Government is inclined to follow the lead of India in the conduct of
its foreign affairs. The Indian suggestion, therefore, should en-
courage Burma to exercise caution before appealing to the UN.
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4. Communists make propaganda capital on serious health conditions in �
north Korea:
Following a two week build-up in the Soviet
Orbit press, an 8 May North Korean radio
broadcast addressed to the UN accused US
and ROK forces of employing biological war-
fare against the North Korean population.
The broadcast, in addition to mentioning alleged ROK documents con-
cerning plans for the use of biological warfare, stated that the
American Armed Forces had "contaminated with smallpox" the inhabi-
tants in the areas of North Korea which they temporarily occupied.
Claiming that no smallpox had occurred in North Korea for the past
four years, the broadcast reported that a widespread outbreak had
occurred seven to eight days after North Korean territory had been
"liberated. "
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Comment: In addition to providing Communist
forces in Korea with an excellent propaganda device for internal and
�
international consumption, these claims may be an attempt to conceal
the failure of North Korean public health authorities to prevent the
outbreak of communicable diseases. While the incidence of smallpox
to date in North Korea is unknown the Wonsan
area reported the outbreak of this disease earlier this year.
5. Communist China offers Ceylon rice in exchange for rubber:
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in 3.3(h)(2)
early May Communist China approached
Ceylon with a proposal to barter 50, 000 tons 3.3(h)(2)
of rice for an equivalent value of rubber.
The UK Government has expressed to Ceylon its strong disapproval
of such an arrangement.
Comment: Malaya's restrictions on rubber
exports to China, which were adopted in early April, have forced the
Communists to look for other sources of supply. The Communists
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have already agreed to export 100,000 tons of rice to India in 1951,
half of which was to be exchanged.for gunny bags. Although China's
food situation is not favorable, the government can dispose of a few
hundred thousand tons of rice in exchange for industrial materials.
Imminent overthrow of Burmese Government by pro-Commu.lists
predicted by US journalist:
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The US Embassy in Rangoon reports that a
Time - Life correspondent visiting in Burma
is convinced the present Burmese Government
will be replaced this summer by a pro-
Communist government His opinion, which is not shared by the Em-
bassy, is apparently derived from the following reports he has re-
ceived: (a) the Chinese Communists have been sending "25 guns per
week" into Burma, (b) 5,000 insurgent troops in northern Burma are
being trained by the Chinese Communists, (c) Sino-Burmese Com-
munists have infiltrated the Karen rebels' leadership, (d) the Burmese
Communist chief, Than Tun, has been promised supplies and direc-
tion from Peiping, and (e) all pro-Communist groups in Burma are
receiving aid and direction from the Chinese Communist Embassy in
Rangoon.
Comment:
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The correspondent's conclusion that the collapse of the present
Burmese Government is imminent, however, is believed to be overly
pessimistic - - except in the event of a Chinese Communist invasion.
The Burmese Communist movement is now in a stage of reorganiza-
tion; a considerable period of time will be required before the process
of combining splinter elements, training, arming and regrouping is
completed and Communist forces are in a position to threaten seriously
the Burmese Government
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7. US Ambassador reports Indonesian attitudes toward Communism:
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During a conversation with President Sukarno,
US Ambassador Cochrag, referred to enthu-
siastic May Day celebrations as evidence of
Communist growth in Indonesia. Sukarno
quickly admitted this development and said
measures must be taken to check it. 3.3(h)(2)
Meanwhile, the new Indonesian Foreign
Minister, Subardjo, has reaffirmed Indonesia's "neutralism" in foreign
relations. When questioned regarding the export of strategic Indonesian
raw materials to Communist China, Subardjo stated that Indonesia
planned to sell "even to the devil" if the interests of the Indonesian
people are therby served.
Comment; The Republic of Indonesia thus
far has refused to take a firm stand against Communism either with
regard to domestic problems or to external policy. There are no
indications that the new government will be more aggressive in this
respect. Subardjo has pursued an opportunistic career and has a
record of associating with so-called "national Communists."
NEAR EAST
8. US Amtiassador appraises Iranian Prime Minister's strategy:
3.3(h)(2)
The US Embassy in Tehran has made the
following appraisal of the future course of
the Mossadeq government: The government
will concentrate on the oil problem to the
exclusion of other considerations, dropping electoral and budget re-
forms if such measures arouse opposition. Members of the Joint Oil
Committee will probably be promptly selected, at which time Prime
Minister Mossadeq will move cautiously. It is doubtful whether�
Mossadeq has any concrete plans as yet on how the nationalization
processes will be implemented. Aside from the above, Mossadeq's
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present strategy is probably designed to avoid friction with the Majlis,
and these tactics should keep him in office for at least three months
or- until the oil committee presents its recommendations to the Majlis.
Fact6rs which might cause an earlier upset are his poor health and�
popular impatience over the oil issue.
Comment: Mossadecf s National Front has
wide popular appeal but few Majlis representatives, and Mossadeqcs
Cabinet Ministers - mostly old-line politicians - are talikely to sup-
port measures that threaten their own interests. It is likely that
friction with the Majlis will develop.
0. Syrian-Israeli border situation continues serious:
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3.3(h)(2)
According to US Ambassador Davis in Tel
Aviv, the border situation between Israel
and Syria is still "far from encouraging," 3.3(h)(2)
Davis reports that Foreign Minister Sharett,
who is acting-Prime Minister while Bei..-
Gurion is in the US, is in a difficult position
in regard to the border issue because (a)
the Israeli public is disappointed over the
foreign reaction to the border incidents, and (b) the Israeli Army,
headed by Chief of Staff Yadin, lacks confidence in the Mixed Armis-
tice Commission., Meanwhile, US Minister Cannon in Damascus re-
ports that the tense atmosphere within Syria and the popular bitterness
resulting from the frontier incidents are increasing the difficulties of
the Syrian Government in any approach to a settlement of the dispute.
Cannon is concerned that Israel may annex the demilitarized area,
since colonization of this small but fertile region would help to release
the pressure on Israel's immigrant staging centers.
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Comment: Reports from the Palestine area
Indicated that fighting on a major scale ended, for the time being at
least, as a result of the UN Security Council cease-fire order of 8 May.
Skirmishes reported subsequently in the demilitarized zone north of
Lake Tiberias indicate, however, the continued seriousness of the.
Syrian-Israeli border troubles, which might again result in heavier
fighting. �There is still some danger that the Israeli Army - hostile
toward the Mixed Armistice Commission, the Syrians and the local
Palestinian Arabs - will force the hand of the Israeli Government by
seizing part or 'all of the demilitarized zones and presenting the UN
with a "fait accompli" that would be difficult to change.
EASTERN EUROPE
10. Yugoslays concerned regarding consequences of Western military
assistance:
US Ambassador Allen in Belgrade has been
informed by a reliable source that two leading
members of the Yugoslav Government recently
told Yugoslav officials in Bern that their
Government would make every effort to keep Western forces out of
Yugoslavia in the event of war. Allen has learned that the Yugoslav
Military Attache in Paris made a similar statement to Yugoslav of-
ficials there. Ambassador Allen comments that the Yugoslav Govern-
ment is aware that anti-Tito Yugoslays within Yugoslavia and abroad
are pressing for a US-UK commitment to send troops into Yugoslavia
in case of war.
3.3(h)(2)
Comment: These assurances by high Yugo-
slav officials are apparently calculated to allay the fears of Yugoslav
Communist Party members concerning the possible consequences of
the Western military assistance that the Tito government is now
seeking. Some Communist Party members undoubtedly fear that the
West would attempt to use its military forces in Yugoslavia to replace
the Communist regime with a pro-Western government.
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